NBA playoffs: Knicks vs. Pacers picks and series prediction

When the Pacers Are on Offense

These teams could hardly be more different stylistically, and that will be most clear when the Pacers have the ball.

True to their name, Indiana wants to play with pace. The Pacers rank second in the league in that metric and want to push the tempo, get up and down the court and make it pick-up basketball. Indiana ranked top seven in the NBA on fast break points, points off turnovers, second-chance points and points in the paint.

The Knicks defense ranks in the top seven in each of those categories too, though, and New York ranks 30th in pace. It's typically much easier to slow an opponent down than speed one up, especially in the rugged playoffs — and especially with the physical style of play the late-season whistle is allowing.

The Pacers offense got bogged down by the Bucks at times, and Milwaukee was able to turn it into a half-court game. That's not what Indiana wants, and the Lakers had similar success in the In-Season Tournament. If play-in-level teams like the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Bucks and Lakers can slow the Pacers down and dictate the pace defensively, how about an elite defense like New York?

Indiana is an elite 2-point machine, leading the league in 2s, but the Knicks defense has been outstanding since acquiring OG Anunoby, ranking fourth in EFG allowed since the turn of the calendar. The Pacers spacing has been limited without Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin, and the Knicks have the length and defensive grit to punish that.

Tyrese Haliburton had a series to forget against Milwaukee, with a subpar 0.8 BPM. His back is clearly ailing him, and he isn't able to create much advantage with the ball.

Haliburton is a genius playmaker but is settling for far too many 3s right now, and that was the case for this entire Indiana offense against Milwaukee when the game bogged down. Sure, it was great in the games when those 3s all fell, but that's not Pacers ball. Haliburton will have his hands full being defended by OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Deuce McBride and others.

Indiana is a much better team at home, where the crowd energy helps push the pace and invigorates the role players. The Pacers have what appears to be a sizable bench advantage in guys like T.J. McConnell and former Knick, Obi Toppin, and the bench performed well against New York in the regular season. But are we sure that advantage will translate to the playoffs?

The entire point of a bench advantage is that your bench players are better than the opponents'. But the Knicks are playing starters 40, 44, 48 minutes in the postseason. McConnell and Toppin aren't better than the Knicks starters, and they're both deficient enough in some areas that they could be played off the court if things go awry.

Indiana's presumed bench advantage could become a disadvantage in a hurry if the Knicks can truly play their starters nearly every minute without wearing down.

Games will come every two days until Game 6, thanks to a one-day delay for Caitlin Clark's Indiana debut.

When the Knicks Are on Offense

The biggest advantage in the series will come on the glass, where the Knicks will likely demolish the Pacers. New York leads the league in Offensive Rebounding Rate, grabbing over 29% of its misses. Indiana ranks bottom five in defensive rebounding.

The Knicks win offensively with volume, by racking up more chances and shots than the opponent with a huge rebounding edge. New York had games with 15 and 25 offensive rebounds against Indiana this season, even though Mitchell Robinson didn't play any of the three games. Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa, and Josh Hart will eat glass.

Hartenstein and Robinson effectively play the whole 48 minutes at center. That duo — let's call them Mitchenstein — might be as valuable as Siakam or injured Haliburton in this series. They could have games with 20 or 30 rebounds, but they'll also be pulled away on from the glass defending Myles Turner 3s.

Jalen Brunson may get anything he wants this series as a scorer. Indiana's defense improved late in the season with its lineup changes but is still the clear weak unit in this series. The Knicks should get to the line aplenty and find plenty of comfortable 2-point looks.

Brunson scored 28, 40, and 39 points against Indiana, averaging 35.7 points per game on 10.0 free throw attempts and 19.3 2-point attempts per game. He had a monster first round as a scorer and should repeat the feat.

Brunson should be the best player in this series, maybe by a significant margin.

Haliburton was just as good, maybe better, when healthy in the regular season. But he's not healthy right now, and we're not in the regular season anymore, Toto.

The Knicks typically find swaths of easy buckets off turnovers. Indiana typically doesn't turn it over much, but if the Pacers get sloppy, games could get away from them in a hurry.

Best Bet: Split Between Knicks in 5 (+310, DraftKings) & Knicks in 6 (+470, FanDuel)

I really like the Knicks in this matchup.

We got an entirely new version of this team since Jan. 1, with an elite defense and a clear identity. We got a refreshed identity of Indiana over the last three weeks of the season too, with Haliburton looking mostly healthy after a rough two months and the Pacers offense back near the top of the league.

Limping through a series against Milwaukee's mediocre defense was not an inspiring look for the Pacers, but the Knicks looked the part in round one. I trust the smaller sample of New York much more than the Indiana one, especially since the Pacers offense was pretty mediocre for two months before that.

The Bucks were able to body the Pacers, play physical playoff basketball, and turn it into a half-court game. The IST Lakers did that too, really giving Haliburton problems when they could build a full defensive plan around him. If those teams can do that, why shouldn't we expect this mean, physical Knicks defense to do the same and more?

Books clearly expect a Knicks win too, leaving our options a bit limited with steep pricing.

It doesn't feel great backing Tom Thibodeau against Rick Carlisle, one of the better coaches in the league, but that looks like something to be careful with game-to-game playing against the spread. Carlisle is a bigger advantage if the games or series are close, and I don't expect either of those things.

Thibs teams have never been in a sweep, and they rarely go seven either. Four of his five career series wins ended in five or six games. Either it works or it doesn't.

I'll sacrifice Knicks in 4 and Knicks in 7 to boost my odds.

Split your bet between Knicks in 5 (+310, DraftKings) and Knicks in 6 (+470, FanDuel), with combined implied odds of +138. As long as the Knicks win in five or six games in 59% of their series wins, this is a better play than just the heavily juiced series line at -245.

Props & Other Angles

Not much should be made of the season series when OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson missed all three games, but one name that leapt off the page in reviewing was Donte DiVincenzo.

DDV was relatively quiet in the first round, but he averaged 24 points in 38 minutes against the Pacers this season, jacking up 36 treys in three games. Believe it or not, DiVincenzo was one of the best shooters in the NBA this season. He trailed only Steph Curry and Luka Doncic in 3s made.

I like DiVincenzo to lead the series in 3s at +300 (bet365), even odds with Brunson, Haliburton, and Turner for some reason. His volume and accuracy make him a clear favorite. I'd play to +200, and if your book offers shorter odds, perhaps you wait until after a quiet Game 1 or 2 and then jump in mid-series.

I'll nibble Aaron Nesmith at +5000 (BetMGM) in the same category. He hit 13-of-24 against New York this season and should see plenty of minutes as a two-way guy.

Brunson (-500, BetMGM) and Haliburton (-150, bet365) are the clear leaders in points and assists, respectively. Those numbers probably aren't worth playing — Haliburton's injury is the issue there — but could be worth circling back to after a game or two if things are wonky early.

Josh Hart is the rebounding leader favorite and had double-digit boards all three games against Indiana. But his 10.7 rebounds per game in those games is beatable. Our friend "Mitchenstein" will split the damage, but Hartenstein could be worth playing at +1900 (FanDuel) in case Robinson is limited by injury again.

If you like the Knicks, back them at home, especially early. New York led the NBA at +7.8 Net Rating in home first halves, and Indiana was -1.9 in road first halves, ranking in the bottom half of the league.

The Knicks are also a very strong second-half team, as we saw time and again versus Philadelphia. Don't be afraid to live bet New York in games where the Knicks fall behind. Indiana's defense and pace leave the Pacers vulnerable to major swings, and Thibs and the Knicks play all 48:00 every night.