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ESPN analyst shares his calculated projections for the New Orleans Saints offense in 2024
© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Saints had a productive 2024 NFL Draft and added some nice depth via free agency. Their roster is mostly set as far as important contributors go, and the preseason and training camp will shake out position battles for depth. 

How will the team's offense fare under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak? There will be clear changes, and many fans are excited about his addition. One analyst does not think that they will take a step forward, though.

ESPN's Mike Clay projects that Derek Carr and the Saints offense struggle again in 2024.

Check out his entire league-wide projections here.

Notable stat projections from Clay for the Saints offense

  • Derek Carr: 3,816 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 11 interceptions
  • Alvin Kamara: 1,244 total yards, 7 TDs
  • Kendre Miller: 551 total yards, 3 TDs
  • Chris Olave: 86 receptions, 1,246 receiving yards, 6 TDs
  • Rashid Shaheed: 54 receptions, 740 receiving yards, 4 TDs
  • Taysom Hill: 295 rushing yards, 3 TDs, 271 receiving yards, 2 TDs
  • A.T. Perry: 4 receptions, 43 receiving yards

Carr's stat line would be unacceptable in this scenario. He must take care of the ball and throw for over 4,000 yards in order for the passing offense to take a step forward. If he stays healthy, I believe he will play better than this projection. 

As for Kamara and Miller, that'd be a top-flight RB combo in the NFC. The WR group in this projection is quite the opposite.. Clay thinks that their receiver core will be one of the least productive in football. 

His projection for Perry makes no sense. His season-long stat line from Clay is one that he will probably record in at least one game this season. Perry totaled 246 yards last year as a rookie and will have a bigger role in 2024, most likely. 

Olave and Shaheed's stats seem fair, but don't be shocked if Olave eclipses 100 receptions. 

I'd also expect Taysom Hill to get in the end zone a bit more often than Clay believes, too. Kubiak is going to deploy him in unique ways because of his special athleticism and skill set. 

Saints' projected win total via Clay: 8.8 wins

If the Saints offense don't improve on last year's performance, they will not see the postseason. Accordingly, it is likely that you would see a new head coach in New Orleans for next season. If not, fans would be quite upset. 

Regardless, only time will tell. Carr and his playmakers must prove Clay wrong in order for the Saints to reclaim the NFC South crown.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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