Last week:
NYG: W, 27-16
SF: W, 35-0
CHI: W, 48-24
IND: W, 34-17
CIN: W, 23-20
HOU: W, 29-6
Another terrible week for eliminations, with just 1.8% of the Yahoo! field being eliminated.
Teams used (DAVE rank): New Orleans (2nd), Dallas (14th), Houston (18th), Washington (19th)
Here are this week's most popular selections in the Yahoo! pool:
Pittsburgh (at Detroit)
Do people just not understand the concept of home-field advantage? That is honestly the only reasoning I can come up with to explain how the Steelers are more popular than the two teams discussed below. Pittsburgh has not looked as good as the Giants or Eagles over the first four weeks of the season, and is the only one of the three playing on the road. Sure, Detroit isn't good, but they did win at home a couple weeks ago, and they may well end up being better than both the Raiders and Bucs when all is said and done.
Another reason not to take the Steelers this week, beyond the relative shortness of the line and their mystifying popularity in these Survivor pools, is their immense value in future weeks. Pittsburgh hosts the Browns, Bengals, and Raiders, and also travels to Kansas City in Week 11. It may eventually be difficult to figure out when to pull the trigger on the Steelers, but it seems pretty obvious that the answer is not "Week 5".
NY Giants (vs. Oakland)
Philadelphia (vs. Tampa Bay)
Might as well just go ahead and group these two together from the start, since at first glance they're the two best options of the week, and they're clearly similar.
Likelihood of winning: It's a tie, with both teams currently favored -950/+770 (88.7%) at Pinnacle.
Popularity: The Giants are slightly more popular in the Yahoo! contest (23% vs. 18%), and more than twice as popular (21% vs. 9%) in the ESPN contest. Clear advantage to the Eagles here, although not a huge one.
Future value: Considering the strength of these two teams, there are going to be surprisingly few opportunities to take them in the season's final 12 weeks. Both have one game in which they'll be favored by 9.5, according to the current SBET prospective lines: New York hosts Carolina in Week 16, and the Eagles play Washington in Philly in Week 12.
Beyond that, though, there's not much; I suspect that the Giants will be favored by more than the 6.5 SBET currently has them at in Week 7 against the Cardinals, but the chances of that rounding into a Survivor play are slim. This category is essentially a draw, although it does make both plays even more appealing.
Putting the two options up against each other in those three categories reveals that the Eagles are a slightly superior option. Now we just have to go through the other games and make sure that holds true overall.
Dallas (at Kansas City)
The Cowboys are favored by nine (although the juice heavily favors KC), and are about 76% to win at Pinnacle. They are less popular than the Eagles, but the difference isn't nearly big enough to make up for the gap in win probability. Dallas also has more future value than Philly, with a home game against Oakland in Week 12 that SBET currently has lined at -14. There is no way I'm taking the Cowboys over the Eagles (especially since I've already used Dallas in this pool).
Minnesota (at St. Louis)
Pretty much the same deal here. The Vikings are favored by 9.5, and are around 81% to win. They've been selected by fewer than one in 10 people in the Yahoo! pool, but even if literally nobody was picking them they wouldn't be a better option than Philly. They also have some legitimate Survivor value in their future, hosting the lowly Lions in Week 10.
Baltimore (vs. Cincinnati)
This one interested me at first because so few people are picking the Ravens; just 0.7% in the Yahoo! pool. They're 77% to win at Pinnacle, which is solid but doesn't exactly compare favorably with Philly, and they are definitely worth saving, with home games against Detroit (W14) and Oakland (W17).
It doesn't look like any of the other options are even all that close, so the Eagles are the pick this week.
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