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NBA Offseason AnalysisThe NBA free agency is barely a week old and there have been a flurry of signings bolstering contenders in conferences. Before the signings and commitments began, several trades involving big names shifted the landscape creating a sort of arms race that has continued this summer. With the draft completed and several big names rumored to still be out there it will be interesting to see how everything shapes up when the 09-10 season finally tips off.
Here AccuScore aims to take a look at the moves so far, and which team has fared the best. This analysis assumes the following trades, free agent signings, and expected moves to be completed in the coming days:
- Boston signs Rasheed Wallace
- Cleveland acquires Shaq from Phoenix for Sasha Pavlovic and Ben Wallace
- Dallas signs Marcin Gortat and acquires Shawn Marion via trade (not confirmed but is reportedly close)
- Detroit signs Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva
- Lakers signs Ron Artest
- Houston signs Trevor Ariza and loses Yao to injury
- Orlando acquies Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from the Nets for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney while losing Gortat and Turkoglu via free agency
- San Antonio trades for Richard Jefferson in exchange for Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas
- Toronto signs Hedo Turkoglu
With those moves completed, here is how some of the teams are projected to fare this coming season.
TEAM
BASELINE
FREE AGENT
DIFFERENCE
59.5
62.8
3.3
62.4
64.4
2.0
52.0
54.0
2.0
39.6
39.8
0.2
LA Lakers
65.5
66.0
0.5
58.6
56.8
-1.8
56.1
56.8
0.7
36.6
38.0
1.5
Boston, with a healthy Kevin Garnett and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt, benefits the most from the current moves improving by 3.3%. Over the course of the season that could be worth as much as 2 to 3 victories, very important in the race for homecourt in the playoffs. Wallace is diminished at this point in his career, but he still provides a superior interior defensive presence, and perhaps most importantly the ability to knock down shots from the perimeter. If Wallace and KG are healthy and in the lineup, the match-up problems created by Rashard Lewis of the Magic are solved.
Cleveland looks improved with Shaq in the lineup improving from its baseline number by 2.0% and staying ahead of Orlando and Boston on paper. Further moves to bolster the backcourt and the perimeter seem to still be needed for the Cavs to become completely comfortable with the roster as the Magic were able to exploit their small backcourt defensively under a hail of three-pointers. A player like Anthony Parker could come cheap, and would fit well as a role player.
The Pistons, Lakers, and Spurs are only marginally improved by their roster moves largely because the free agency period has served to strengthen all of the top competitors in the league. Overall, this offseason (the draft, free agency, and the flurry of trades) has created almost two separate leagues between the haves and have-nots. The top teams in the league will likely win more games, while the bottom-feeders will lose more often and by larger margins.
Here are some early projected stats showing how the major signings and acquisitions are faring with their new teams.
PLAYER
PTS
REB
AST
TO
BLK
11.6
7.1
2.0
1.3
1.5
Shaquille O'Neal
15.0
9.3
1.6
2.2
1.3
7.8
8.0
0.5
1.0
1.6
12.6
8.1
2.0
1.4
1.1
19.8
3.2
2.9
2.2
0.2
13.4
6.7
1.7
2.0
0.6
15.6
5.1
3.6
1.6
0.4
18.7
5.8
3.9
1.8
0.4
16.3
5.9
2.6
2.0
0.2
Hedo Turkoglu
17.0
5.5
5.0
3.1
0.2
A couple significant things stand out here at first glance. Jefferson does provide another scorer on the Spurs which should come in handy if Manu Ginobili or Tim Duncan succumbs to injury. San Antonio would be even better if all four of its marquee players remain on the floor. Artest is projected to produce much more statistically than Ariza did last season with nearly 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists. The more important issue will be how he affects team chemistry. This simulation also assumes the Lakers keep Lamar Odom on the roster and happy. Marcin Gortat has looked good as a back-up, and should produce in a more prominent role in Dallas. If he can stay out of foul trouble and on the floor he could be a possible double-double threat.
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Yao Ming Injury AnalysisYao Ming is the best all around center in the league and Houston is a legitimate championship contender with him in the lineup. Houston however is not a one man team, and AccuScore does not expect the Rockets to become a Western Conference door mat without Yao. Yao is a terrific offensive player who shoots over 50% from the field and over 85% from the free throw line. His touch is so good he even takes Houston’s technical free throws. His ability to draw double teams helps perimeter shooters get wide open looks. At 7-foot-6-inches Yao is wholly unique in the world of basketball.
No matter how talented however, he has his weaknesses. While he has a reputation as a great passer Yao averaged only 1.8 assists against 3.0 turnovers last season. While he has averaged double digit rebounds the past few seasons, his rebounding rate is not phenomenal. Yao ranked 29th in the league in rebounding rate this season and just 22nd among centers. His raw numbers are less impressive when taking into account his size and number of minutes.
Without Yao on the floor, the Rockets have the personnel to play up-tempo basketball. They lack the ability to get as many wide open looks in half-court sets without Yao, but they can make up for that by creating opportunities in transition.
The fact is that some of the Rockets’ best performances over the past few seasons have been with Yao Ming injured and out of the lineup including the following:
- beating the Lakers twice by double digits in the second round of the Western Conference playoffs
- going 22-10 over the past two regular seasons in games without Yao. Ten of those games came during their 22-game winning streak in 07-08.
Without Yao, Luis Scola is expected to step up according to AccuScore with forecasted averages of 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists on 50% shooting (with only 2 turnovers). Ron Artest is forecasted to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists and Aaron Brooks is projected for 16 points and 4 assists. If Ron Artest stays with the Rockets Houston is still projected to have a great chance of making the playoffs albeit with the 8th best record in the West.
HOUSTON
WINS
WIN %
WIN DIV
PLAYOFFS
W/ YAO MING
55
67%
28%
97%
W/O YAO MING
49
60%
11%
85%
Injury Impact
-6
-7%
-17%
-12%
Houston would likely win nearly as many games against average and bad teams with or without Yao. The problem is against the upper echelon of the league his absence from the lineup would take a serious toll on offensive efficiency. The better teams in the league are significantly defensively on the perimeter and on the boards. A Yao-less version of the Rockets would struggle against the best in the NBA.
Here is how Houston is forecasted to perform against top Western Conference competition with and without Yao. You will see the drop-off in simulation winning percentage (-9%) is more severe than the overall drop-off Houston shows (-7%) meaning our conclusion in the previous paragraph is correct.
KEY MATCHUP
w/ YAO
w/o YAO
IMPACT
LA Lakers
49%
36%
-13%
@ LA Lakers
18%
10%
-8%
San Antonio
67%
55%
-12%
@ San Antonio
43%
35%
-8%
Denver
59%
56%
-3%
@ Denver
38%
32%
-6%
Portland
71%
61%
-10%
@ Portland
39%
28%
-11%
AVERAGE
48%
39%
-9%
Based on how well Houston has played without Yao over the course of recent seasons, AccuScore’s recommendation would be acquiring a center who can play an up tempo style. A player that can rebound at a high rate, and block shots would be ideal. A player like Orlando’s Marcin Gortat, who is a restricted free agent, could be ideal.
Yao Ming has been a terrific player, and he has been central to the Rockets for his entire career. In light of his injury woes however it may simply be time to cut ties and focus on building a different style of team in Houston. Yao’s sheer size may preclude him from being able to stay healthy for a full 82-game season plus the postseason. Yao missed just two games over the course of his first three seasons in the league. The next three seasons he missed a total of 86. While he stayed on the floor for 77 games this year, he injured his foot against the Lakers and now could miss the entire 09-10 campaign. As tough as it is, Houston would be wise to move on. Rick Adelman was successful coaching an offense-centric team in Sacramento, and something similar could possibly be done with the Rockets. The building blocks are there, but Yao Ming doesn’t appear to be one of them.
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VINCE CARTER TO THE MAGICThe flurry of activity on the NBA trade front continues fast and furious even on Draft Day. The Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic has acquired Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson from the Nets in exchange for Courtney Lee, Tony Battie, and Rafer Alston.
Carter is slightly different than the current players on the roster
with the ability to create his own shot and finish at the rim.
At first glance this trade appears to be Orlando pushing their small ball, four-out one-in style to limit. Carter is slightly different than the current players on the roster with the ability to create his own shot and finish at the rim. He is also a prolific three-point shooter (a requisite for the Magic) hitting 38.5% this season, his best percentage since 2005.
Here is AccuScore’s projection for the new-look Magic against their biggest competitors for the NBA title. This is includes Shaq in Cleveland, and assumes Hedo Turkoglu will still be in Orlando.
KEY MATCHUP
BASELINE
w/ V. CARTER
IMPACT
Cleveland
49.5%
50.1%
0.6%
@ Cleveland
27.8%
29.7%
1.9%
Boston
67.6%
66.9%
-0.7%
@ Boston
50.4%
45.3%
-5.1%
LA Lakers
57.6%
57.5%
-0.1%
@ LA Lakers
29.0%
30.6%
1.6%
AVERAGE
47.0%
46.7%
-0.3%
The simulation shows that this trade alone does not do much to improve the team. In fact, the team performs slightly worse. This result isn’t too surprising because the acquisition of Carter just serves to further improve an existing strength: on the perimeter. Orlando’s major weakness was interior defense and rebounding. Dwight Howard can only do so much by himself. He needs more help inside. Carter does not help these deficiencies, particularly in light of Mickael Pietrus and Lee playing so well during the playoffs.
This move might further weaken Orlando because of the size of Carter’s contract. The one upside to the trade is that it protects the Magic in case Turkoglu leaves via free agency, but would leave the team without Lee and Battie. Both are complementary players, but did play key roles during the playoff run. Another offshoot is that this probably precludes the team from any chance of resigning Marcin Gortat. The Magic might not have had a real chance to do that anyways, but taking on Carter’s contract certainly doesn’t help. Carter is a nice piece adding another scoring option, but he does little to actually improve the Magic and propel them to become a better team.
I like the deal from the Nets end because Courtney Lee proved he can be a valuable contributor to a quality team. He was unafraid of the big stage, and had a penchant for making big plays on both sides of the ball. With the 11th pick in the draft New Jersey could have a very attractive nucleus in place for several of the 2010 free agents.
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Shaq showed this past season that he still has something left in the tank. With his move to Cleveland the question becomes, is it enough to propel LeBron James to the title?
With the Cavaliers already having the best record in the NBA it would be tough for them to improve statistically. Cleveland’s 66 wins were the most in the NBA topping the Lakers by a game, and easily outdistancing the Celtics by four games in the East. AccuScore simulations projected the 2009-2010 season with Shaq in Cleveland, and assumed Kevin Garnett would be healthy in Boston.
CLEVELAND
WINS
BEST RECORD
#1 SEED
#2 SEED
#3 SEED
OTHER SEED
w/ Shaq
67
31%
60%
23%
12%
5%
w/o Shaq
65
28%
59%
23%
12%
6%
SHAQ VALUE
2
3%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
With Shaq the Cav are averaging 67 wins in simulations, a one game improvement from 2009. In simulations without the trade Cleveland is winning 65 wins so Cleveland is in fact better in simulations with Shaq in the lineup. This is important because it makes them more likely to compete (and beat) the Lakers once again for the best record in the NBA. The Lakers are currently forecasted for 66 wins. With Shaq Cleveland improves to 31% chance of winning the top overall seed in the playoffs and a slight edge over the Lakers for home court in a theoretical Finals match-up.
The ultimate goal of course making a deal of this magnitude is to get to the Finals and win thus enticing LeBron to resign with Cleveland long-term. In reality, the regular season does not matter for Cleveland any longer. This deal is looking forward to the Cavs improving against Boston and Orlando in the East and L.A. out West.
With Shaq the Cav are averaging 67 wins in simulations, a one game improvement from 2009.
PLAYOFFS
WIN EAST
WIN CHAMP
w/ Shaq
34%
21%
w/o Shaq
32%
18%
SHAQ VALUE
2%
3%
Simulations show Shaq gives Cleveland a better chance both to reach the Finals and win it once there.
KEY MATCHUP
PRE-TRADE
W/ SHAQ
IMPACT
Orlando
75.1%
77.2%
2.1%
@ Orlando
47.6%
50.5%
2.9%
Boston
77.2%
79.0%
1.8%
@ Boston
45.5%
48.5%
3.0%
LA Lakers
65.0%
66.1%
1.1%
@ LA Lakers
32.3%
32.7%
0.4%
Denver
72.1%
75.8%
3.7%
@ Denver
46.6%
50.6%
4.0%
AVERAGE
57.7%
60.1%
2.4%
Taking a closer look at Cleveland against the top teams in the NBA shows the move does indeed improve their goal of winning a championship. It is fair to assume that the biggest competition for the Cavs will come from Orlando, Boston, L.A., and Denver. With Shaq, the Cavaliers improved their chances of beating Orlando by +2.1% at home and by a big +2.9% in Orlando. With Shaq, the Cavs are actually the slight favorite on the road against Orlando something they of course failed to do in the playoffs this past season. Shaq provides a big body with the ability to single cover Dwigh Howard in the post, and also draw fouls and create problems on the other end. He provides similar benefits against Boston and Kendrick Perkins as Cleveland is also getting a nice +1.8% bump at home against the Celtics and a +3% bump on the road.
To me, Cleveland still needs to make another move as this alone doesn’t make them a lock or even a clear favorite in the East. Adding a bigger player on the perimeter to help defensively has to be the next clear priority, as would be another power forward (Rasheed Wallace?) to take on the likes of KG and Rashard Lewis.
On the Suns side this move obviously is an admission that the team was no longer a real contender out West. The move does give Phoenix a better chance of keeping Amar’e Stoudemire and Steve Nash by freeing up some cash, which of course is important to frugal owner Robert Sarver.
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Instead of waiting until the summer of 2010 to rebuild the team the Spurs made a big move for the present trading away Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, and Bruce Bowen to the Bucks for Richard Jefferson.
The move is a pure salary dump for the Bucks as the contracts for Oberto and Bowen are not guaranteed. Both are likely to be waived, and one or both could end up back in a Spurs uniform. Thomas is a nice player to have, but he is already 36 years old and is merely a back-up at this point in his career.
Jefferson will now be the third or fourth option for the Spurs
depending on the health of the other key members on the roster.
The Spurs are the big winner here adding another player that can score with the ability to create his own offense. Jefferson’s sizable contract will put the Spurs into luxury tax territory, but the move makes sense on the basketball court and will likely propel the team back towards the top of the Western Conference.
SPURS
BASELINE
JEFFERSON
LAL
45.9%
48.6%
@LAL
22.1%
27.1%
DEN
59.8%
64.2%
@DEN
43.9%
46.9%
POR
70.1%
69.7%
@POR
43.1%
44.1%
HOU
65.6%
72.9%
@HOU
43.7%
46.8%
DAL
66.6%
70.0%
@DAL
40.3%
41.0%
NO
55.9%
61.7%
@NO
44.1%
47.4%
UT
76.0%
80.5%
@UT
41.3%
44.9%
AVG
51.3%
54.7%
Jefferson will now be the third or fourth option for the Spurs depending on the health of the other key members on the roster. Simulations show that this move improves the winning percentage for San Antonio by 3.4 percentage points against its primary competition in the West. That improvement extrapolated over a full 82 game season could net the Spurs as much as 3 wins.
The assumption with this simulation is that Jefferson will become a better rebounder (about 6 boards per game) with Tim Duncan drawing plenty of attention in the post as he was in his good years in New Jersey. Jefferson had become much more perimeter oriented with the Bucks, and that could change now that he is in San Antonio. Jefferson did shoot a career high from three last season (39.7%) which bodes well because of the type of drive-and-kick game played by Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and the Spurs.
Overall, the trade is a win for the Spurs on the basketball court. Jefferson provides another wing player with the ability to score, and adds some (relative) youth to the team. The simulation assumes typical injuries to both Duncan and Ginobili so if either or both players stay healthy the improvement for the Spurs could be even larger. Whether or not this move is by itself enough for San Antonio to compete with the Lakers in the West remains to be seen, but the Spurs are a better basketball team today than they were this past season.
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