Bad Beats: The House Always Wins

A weekly look at smart plays, oddball propositions and all your tales of gambling woe. In football, as in life, things tend to equalize over the long run, with no hot streak going unpunished. That's why the house — after getting hammered by bettors with favorites all year — finally got even with the betting public last Sunday when favorites underachieved across the board. Four of the six teams favored by more than nine points failed to cover; two of them (the Eagles and Jets) lost straight up. Parity must be coming back. Yet going into Week 7, most NFL bettors are sill laying the wood with the heavy favorites, even on the road or in Europe, where anything goes. This week, the heaviest action lies once again with the two biggest favorites: Indianapolis (at 95 percent) and New England (at 92 percent), giving -13 and -15.5, respectively. But neither team is playing at home — the Patriots are in London — which undermines that old saw about large road favorites being a terrible play. In ...