I'm going to keep this fairly quick, since I've had zero time all week; hopefully I'll be able to get something up on the Red Sox series tonight.
Rockies @ Phillies
Current Pinnacle series line: PHI -152/COL +142
Game 1 line: Jimenez +124 @ Lee -132
Identical regular season games (same pitchers and location): none
For awhile there, when the potential Game 2 matchup was Cook at Lee, we did have a relevant line -- those two matched up on August 6 in Philly, with the Phillies being -165/+157 favorites. It would make sense if the line for the current G2 matchup ended up being similar. Something like this:
G1: COL (Jimenez, +124) @ PHI (Lee, -132)
G2: COL (Cook, +154) @ PHI (Hamels, -162)
G3: PHI (Blanton, +111) @ COL (Hammel, -119)
G4: PHI (Happ, +109) @ COL (Marquis, -117)
G5: COL (Jimenez, +124) @ PHI (Lee, -132)
Obviously I'm guessing on who the Phillies will start in their two road games, but I don't think there's enough separation between those two and Pedro at this point for it to make a huge difference; the Rockies should be 53-54% to win those games regardless. On the other hand, de la Rosa looked to be a cut above Colorado's current G2-G4 starters, so losing him hurts.
The potential lines above put the overall series line at PHI -129/+129; the Rockies are currently available at Carib at +150. Clearly, I think there is value in that, especially considering how much public action Philadelphia's G1 line has been getting over the last few days, regardless of their probable starter.
Twins @ Yankees
Current Pinnacle series line: NYY -397/MIN +334
Game 1 line: Duensing +303 @ Sabathia -333
Identical regular season games (same pitchers and location): 7/7/09, Sabathia -128 @ Baker +120
The above figures are rather ridiculous; justified, maybe, but ridiculous nonetheless. It's the combination of the Twins playing 12 innings and using seven relievers on Tuesday night and the lopsided pitching matchup that creates the crazy G1 line (which keeps getting higher, by the way); I'm assuming the next four lines will be a bit shorter:
G1: MIN (Duensing, +290) @ NYY (Sabathia -320)
G2: MIN (Blackburn, +195) @ NYY (Burnett, -215)
G3: NYY (Pettitte, -143) @ MIN (Pavano, +135)
G4: NYY (Sabathia, -136) @ MIN (Baker, +128)
G5: MIN (Blackburn, +195) @ NYY (Burnett, -215)
These numbers put the Yankees at -319/+319 to win the series. That may seem like a pretty big difference compared to the Pinnacle line, but when you get that high it really isn't; my numbers put New York at 76.2% to win the series, while the Pinny line has them at 77.6%. There appears to be some value in the Twins to win the series, but only a marginal amount.
Cardinals @ Dodgers
Current Pinnacle series line: STL -140/LAD +130
Game 1 line: Carpenter -136 @ Wolf +128
Identical regular season games (same pitchers and location): 8/19, Wainwright +117 @ Kershaw -125
G1: STL (Carpenter, -136) @ LAD (Wolf, +128)
G2: STL (Wainwright, +110) @ LAD (Kershaw, -118)
G3: LAD (Padilla, +136) @ STL (Pineiro, -144)
G4: LAD (Billingsley, +121) @ STL (Lohse, -129)
G5: STL (Carpenter, -129) @ LAD (Wolf, +121)
My initial lean was to take LAD for the series, but Carpenter being that big of a road favorite in G1 gives STL a huge advantage, and the action on that game is pretty split. I'll admit that the huge difference between G1 and G2 lines looks a bit strange, but I don't see much reason to stray too far from that Wainwright/Kershaw line from about six weeks ago, especially considering how well CK has pitched since that game. These numbers put the series line at STL -141/+141; I don't see a very compelling reason to take either side there.
Original Story:
Add Comment