ACCUSCORE FANTASY DEFENDERS RANKINGS AND ANALYSIS - June 2009

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Since I wrote the QB analysis first, you may want to review some of the initial points made in that article before reading this.  For Kickers a few things I would keep in mind when drafting a player is:

1. SCORING:  If your league grants 1 points per solo tackle, 3 points for a sack and 3 points for an interception then you will get a very different ranking from one that rewards 4 points for a sack and 4 points for an interception. 

 

1. BETTER DEFENSE BETTER INDIVIDUAL FANTASY DEFENSIVE PLAYER:  Some players on the best team defenses, like Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, or Baltimore’s Ray Lewis, are not the best individual fantasy defensive players.  Why? They force too many 3 and outs from opposing offenses.  When you are on a bad defense allowing a ton of rushing yards you get more tackle opportunities and can rack up fantasy points.  LB DeMeco Ryans’s fantasy value has decreased since 2006 (156 tackles ‘in 06 down to 127 in ’07 and 112 in ’08) every year Houston’s defense has gotten a little better.  Some great Defensive Backs may get fewer interceptions than lesser talent because opposing QBs barely pass in their direction.  Your best fantasy defenders are usually your leading tacklers on below average teams.

If you are an AccuScore Fantasy PLUS subscriber you get access to the FANTASY GUIDE DATA.xls file which will be updated at least once a week starting now and all the way through the end of the season.  Here is a sample of what you’ll get in the file:

RANKINGS:  Defensive Players are ranked based on total fantasy points for the remainder of the season.  At the beginning of the season every player, except those that are already suspended or injured are expected to play 16 games.  But come Week 5, 6 when players are on a bye or some are injured you will get players with high rankings based on fantasy average but they may have fewer games left lowering their actual TOTAL ranking.  You will also see their production for each quarter of the season.  This provides a quick gauge of if a player is set to have a hot start, cold playoff, peak mid-season, etc.  You will also get each player’s forecasted season statistics (for the remainder of the season).  This allows you to see why certain players are more highly rated than others. 

ESPN AND CBS USERS ARE IN LUCK. THEY CAN SIGN-UP FOR FANTASY SCOUT WHICH MAXIMIZES YOUR ROSTER, RECOMMENDS FREE AGENTS AND ALLOWS YOU TO EVALUTE TRADES USING ACCUSCORE’S DATA CUSTOMIZED TOY OUR LEAGUE SCORING, ROSTERS, ETC.

The OPP column is the average power rating of each player’s opponents’ overall offense.  The league’s best offensive power rating is 100% and the worst is 0%.  Again, strength of schedule is often THE determining factor explaining why a player is playing well above or well below expectations.  Keep in mind, that even if a player faces a number of good offenses, they could get more fantasy points because they are getting more tackle, pass defense, and sack opportunities.

WEEKLY FLUCTUATIONS:  Finally, you get each player’s week-by-week fantasy point forecast along with their scheduled opponent. 

 

FANTASY DEFENSIVE PLAYER ANALYSIS
The analysis below is based on our initial simulations run in early June 2009.  The data is updated minimally every week during the pre-season and as much as every day during the regular season.  AccuScore Fantasy PLUS subscribers should download the data regularly (FANTASY GUIDE DATA.xls).

 

DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

JARED ALLEN
Jared Allen has averaged 15 sacks the past 2 seasons and gets a fair number of tackles as a pass rushing DE.  For example, his 54 tackles is nearly twice as many as Dwight Freeney’s 28.  Allen is forecasted for another 50+ tackles and 15+ sacks in 2009.

TRENT COLE
Like Jared Allen, Trent Cole is capable of double digit sacks while also getting his fair share of tackles.  He had 59 solo tackles in 2008 and is forecasted for virtually the same number in 2009 to go along with 10+ sacks.

DEWAYNE WHITE
Most probably have not heard of DeWayne White considering he played for one of the worst defenses ever (Detroit).  However, for individual fantasy production he averaged over 3 tackles and had 6.5 sacks in just 12 games.  If you extrapolate that production over 16 games and Detroit is once again a bad team, White should rack up over 40 Solo tackles and 7 sacks.

 

 

.....To Continue reading this story, you must be a PLUS member. As a PLUS member, you will be able to download AccuScore 2009 Fantasy Football Preveiw.pdf & 2009 FANTASY GUIDE DATA.xlsx

 

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