Trying something new here, so any feedback would be appreciated. I did two things to come up with the graph below. First, I adjusted the FanGraphs win probabilities for each game based on the line, so instead of starting G1 at 50-50, the Dodgers started at 44.4% (+122/-130).
I then incorporated both the actual game lines and my guesses for games that never happened to figure out the series odds based on the potential result of each game. If the Cardinals had won Game 1, they would've been at 75.4% to win the series; LAD's victory got the Dodgers up to 61.7%. So throughout the game, those two are weighted by the batter-to-batter single game win probability.
Do that for all three games, and you end up with this:
I think the main thing this shows is just how little Holliday's error is to blame for St. Louis going home early.Please leave any thoughts/potential additions in the comments.
Original Story:
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