ACC NCAA Bubble Analysis for 2/12

More jockeying for position this week…. How are things shaping with selection Sunday quickly approaching?

In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.

My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.

Locks

(4) Duke (21-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 1

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (79) Belmont, * (3) Michigan St., (70) Davidson, * (15) Michigan, * (5) Kansas, * (30) Colorado St., (73) Washington, * (34) Virginia, (89) Maryland, (94) Virginia Tech, *(8) UNC, (89) Maryland

Bad Losses -None

Notes – Duke’s resume is unreal. Once you get past Syracuse, Kentucky and Missouri, explain how the Blue Devils aren’t a #1 seed if selections were today?

(8) North Carolina (21-4) (8-2) Projected Seed 2

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – * (3) Michigan St., * (24) Wisconsin, * (42) Long Beach St., * (48) Texas, * (37) Miami, (94) Virginia Tech, *(50) NC State, (89) Maryland, * (34) Virginia

Bad Losses – None

Notes – Had UNC beat Duke at home rather than blow a 10 point lead with under 3 minutes, they would have got my #1 seed vote instead of Duke.

(29) Florida State (17-7) (8-2) Projected Seed 7

Last 10 – (8-2)

Good Wins – (59) UCF, (70) UMASS, (94) Virginia Tech, * (8) North Carolina, (89) Maryland, * (4) Duke, * (34) Virginia , *(37) Miami

Bas Losses – * (177) Clemson, (219) Boston College

Notes – Inexcusable loss to BC costs Florida State 2-3 seeding positions this week.

(34) Virginia (19-5) (6-4) Projected Seed 9

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (83) Drexel, * (15) Michigan, (64) Oregon, (76) LSU, * (37) Miami, * (50) NC State, (99) George Mason

Bad Losses – (108) TCU

Notes – I like Mike Scott and the Cavs team, but we are starting to see the limitations of this squad.

Bubble But In

(37) Miami (15-8) (6-4) Projected Seed 11

Last 10 – (6-4)

Good Wins – (70) UMASS, (89) Maryland, * (4) Duke, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – No shame in losing at Florida State, but the resume could use another signature win. North Carolina heads to Miami this week. A 4-2 ACC finish would get the Canes in the Big Dance, I believe.

(50) NC State (18-7) (7-3) Projected Seed 12

Last 10 – (7-3)

Good Wins – (48) Texas, (93) St. Bonaventure, (89) Maryland, (37) Miami

Bad Losses – (145) Georgia Tech

Notes – NC State plays at Duke then has Florida State at home. Wolfpack need a 1-1 week or they slip off the bubble.

Bubble But Out

NONE

Only if they win the ACC Tournament

(89) Maryland (14-10) (4-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – (74) Colorado, (40) Notre Dame, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – None

Notes – I just can’t give the Terps a serious look until they get to .500 in the conference.

(94) Virginia Tech (14-11) (3-7)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (93) St. Bonaventure, (34) Virginia

Bad Losses – (146) Wake Forest, *(219) Boston College

Notes – Good discussion on twitter between myself @HokieGuru and @akosnitzky on twitter whether Seth Greenberg will make it through the season. We agreed he does, but his seat will be real hot next year.

(145) Georgia Tech (9-15) (2-8)

Last 10 – (2-8)

Good Wins – (84) VCU, (50) NC State, (98) Georgia

Bad Losses – * (182) Tulane, * (232) Fordham, * (177) Clemson, (101) Mercer

Notes – Loser of the Wake Forest\Georgia Tech game this week earns the right to be called the ACC’s worst team.

(146) Wake Forest (11-14) (2-9)

Last 10 – (1-9)

Good Wins – (80) Loyola, MD, (94) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses – (138) Richmond, * (190) Wofford, * (229) Arizona St. , * (177) Clemson, * (177) Clemson

Notes – I think we are at a point after nearly 2 seasons to ask what the heck is Jeff Bzdelik doing at Wake Forest?

(177)Clemson (12-12) (4-6)

Last 10 – (4-6)

Good Wins – * (29) Florida State

Bad Losses – (114) Charleston, * (184) Coastal Carolina, * (178) South Carolina, * (169) UTEP, * (203) Hawaii, * (219) Boston College

Notes – If Clemson had even 1 player that could consistently get to the basket they would be so much better.

(219) Boston College (8-17) (3-8)

Last 10 – (3-7)

Good Wins – (94) Virginia Tech, *(29) Florida State

Bad Losses – * (154) Providence, (146) Wake Forest, *(197) Holy Cross, (128) Penn St, *(169) Boston U, *(254) Rhode Island, * (145) Georgia Tech

Notes – Despite their overall record, Steve Donahue has the Eagles playing much better. A stunning win over Florida State was followed up by a last second loss at Virginia Tech, where Eagles outplayed the Hokies for much of the game.

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