AccuScore Football Systems

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Over the past few weeks, AccuScore has begun rolling out season projections for each team in college football and the NFL. To compliment those projections, we have outlined the most profitable systems and trends from the 2008 NFL and NCAAF seasons.

AccuScore is selling this yearâ??s â??Football Packageâ? for $450. The real value is our annual subscription for $600 with two added months totaling 425 days. The $600 annual package gives our clientâ??s access to ATS, Totals and Money Line picks for every game for the 2008-09 NFL, NCAAF, NHL, NBA, NCAAB seasons, as well as the complete 2009 MLB season.

The NFL and College Football are THE big sports for most bettors. AccuScore maximizes profits for subscribers by not only providing the probabilities associated with major football betting lines (point spread, over/under) but also by providing simulation betting trends through the Daily Line Report.

To review 2008 and 2007 Daily Line Report Archives for the NFL and NCAA Football download the excel files here.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MID-WEEK AND END OF WEEK RECORDS

For football betting lines move significantly and while there is no way to officially document AccuScoreâ??s impact on lines, a high percentage of line movement is in conjunction with AccuScoreâ??s predictions (i.e. we think our simulation lines contribute to line movement).

As a result, our point spread and over/under records are different when you compare picks made mid-week (Wednesday afternoon for NCAAF, Thursday afternoon for NFL) and at the end of the week (Saturday am for NCAAF, Sunday am for NFL). Not only do betting lines move, our simulations are updated based on weather and injury updates and therefore simulation lines can move as well.

In the NFL on all point spread and over/under picks AccuScore was more accurate based on mid-week lines (54.6%) than end of week lines (54.0%). The unit calculations are based on 110 risked for 100 profit on all bets.

NFL ATS AND TOTALS R W % UNITS Mid-Week Pick Record 250 208 54.6% 2120 End of Week Pick Record 247 210 54.0% 1600

The difference was even more pronounced for NCAA Football. It seems that whether it is paying customers posting lines on message boards (negating their advantage) or the fact that a number of our customers are pick-sellers who use our data to support their picks, AccuScoreâ??s simulation lines are used for a lot of betting action throughout the week which moves a lot of betting lines.

For example, our simulation line may be -11 and the betting line may open at -10, but over the week our influence results in the line moving to -11 (resulting in no pick / a push) or even -11.5 which reverses our pick. This is why our accuracy was just 51.5% on End of Week NCAA football lines.

NCAA ATS AND TOTALS R W % UNITS Mid-Week Pick Record 716 644 52.6% 760 End of Week Pick Record 691 650 51.5% -2400

BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ACCUSCORE AND VEGAS DELIVER BIG PROFITS

While we would love it if you could bet on every game and win 55% of your bets, itâ??s just not realistic. To help pinpoint your most solid plays we provide Winnerâ??s Edge members with the Daily Line Report which tracks simulation trends by a variety of relevant splits.

For example, the table below shows that in the NFL when there are minimal differences between AccuScoreâ??s simulation betting line and the Vegas betting line (end of week, mid-week), AccuScore was 50% accurate. This is what you would mathematically expect when the difference between the simulation line and the betting line is 1.5 points or less.

However, as the differences become more pronounced (2+, 4+ point differences) AccuScoreâ??s Live Betting Prediction percentages go higher and overall accuracy increases to as high as 65.2% on Mid-Week NFL bets.

NFL POINT SPREAD TIME R W % UNITS Sim Difference = 2.0 End of WK 65 58 52.8% 120 Sim Difference >= 4.0 End of WK 15 10 60.0% 400 Sim Difference = 2.0 MidWK 61 54 53.0% 160 Sim Difference >= 4.0 MidWK 15 8 65.2% 620 NFL OVER/UNDER TIME R W % UNITS Sim Difference = 2.0 End of WK 84 60 58.3% 1800 Sim Difference >= 4.0 End of WK 20 12 62.5% 680 Sim Difference = 2.0 MidWK 92 66 58.2% 1940 Sim Difference >= 4.0 MidWK 24 18 57.1% 420

In NCAA football there is more differences between AccuScoreâ??s simulation lines and the Vegas betting lines. In all cases (point spread, over/under, end of week vs. mid-week) you see a situation when the differences were at their largest (6.0 points or more) the accuracy was at its highest.

NCAAF POINT SPREAD TIME R W % UNITS Sim Difference = 3.0 End of WK 216 201 51.8% -510 Sim Difference >= 6.0 End of WK 52 34 60.5% 1460 Sim Difference = 3.0 MidWK 215 202 51.6% -720 Sim Difference >= 6.0 MidWK 45 28 61.6% 1420 NCAAF OVER/UNDER TIME R W % UNITS Sim Difference = 2.0 End of WK 202 186 52.1% -260 Sim Difference >= 4.0 End of WK 55 42 56.7% 880 Sim Difference = 2.0 MidWK 226 190 54.3% 1700 Sim Difference >= 4.0 MidWK 56 39 58.9% 1310

The good news about these football trends is it helps the Winnerâ??s Edge subscriber pinpoint the best plays. In a single weekend youâ??ll have over 100 different point spread and over/under football picks you can make in the NFL and College football using AccuScoreâ??s Winnerâ??s Edge. The DLR and Live Betting Predictions can help identify the 7 to 12 picks that fit these criteria and hopefully you can win 55%+ and make substantial profits.

TEAM AND CONFERENCE TRENDS

While sample sizes are too small to make definitive statistical conclusions, there are trends that indicate AccuScoreâ??s simulations more accurately forecast performance of certain teams than other teams.

For example, the Big 12 Conference last season was loaded with experienced offensive players with a long track record of performance. The more statistics players accumulate the more accurately AccuScore can simulate that player. It is not surprising to see AccuScoreâ??s pick record on point spreads to bet the best when two Big 12 teams played (29-18, 62%). AccuScore was also over 60% on Pac 10 games. However, when two Big East teams played accuracy was under 40%.

MIDWEEK DLR POSTING POINT SPREAD RECORD CONFERENCE MATCHUPS R W P/NP ACC UNITS ACC MATCH-UP 25 22 2 53% 80 BIG 12 MATCH-UP 29 18 2 62% 920 BIG EAST MATCH-UP 10 16 2 38% -760 BIG TEN MATCH-UP 24 19 1 56% 310 CONFUSA MATCH-UP 26 23 0 53% 70 INDEPENDENT MATCH-UP 1 3 0 25% -230 MAC MATCH-UP 22 21 2 51% -110 MWC MATCH-UP 17 17 2 50% -170 PAC-10 MATCH-UP 26 15 4 63% 950 SEC MATCH-UP 24 22 3 52% -20 SUNBELT MATCH-UP 14 19 0 42% -690 WAC MATCH-UP 17 17 2 50% -170

In the NFL, AccuScore was better in 2008 in AFC match-ups. When two AFC teams played, AccuScore was 46-38, 55%, but when two NFC teams played AccuScore was just 50% accurate.

POINT SPREAD PICKS R W P/NP ACC UNITS AFC Matchup 46 38 17 55% 420 NFC Matchup 37 37 27 50% -370

Again, these sample sizes are small, but when they emerge after the first 7 weeks of the season and generally hold up the final 7 weeks they can provide direction to make more profitable picks.

DOING YOUR HOMEWORK CAN PAY OFF

While many subscribers do not put in any more work than just checking AccuScoreâ??s picks and making them 100% solely on our data, we do encourage our users to incorporate our data into an overall betting system.

For example, we have paying customers who are professional handicappers and have their own systems for making picks. They use AccuScore to find those situations where our system and their system are in agreement. They do not necessarily care about the simulation trends, but rather look more at the consensus between the systems. While we cannot confirm their records several of them report pick record accuracy that is higher than what we report here.