Last week, Phoenix International Raceway lived up to it’s expectations in the past few years and ended yet another long winless streak, with Jeff Gordon edging out Kyle Busch in the final laps to score his first victory since 2009. This week, the Sprint Cup drivers head over to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 400. This 1.5-mile “cookie cutter” track has been kind to last week’s winner as of late, with Gordon leading over 40-percent of the laps in the past two races in Vegas.
During The Last Race At Las Vegas…Jeff Gordon led a race-high 219 laps (out of 267) after starting 2nd, but it was Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson who ended the day in victory lane. Kevin Harvick finished runner-up that day, while Gordon, Mark Martin, and Matt Kenseth rounded out the top five. Click here for the complete results of last year’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…You probably either had an average points day at Phoenix last week, or dug your hole a little bit deeper, but now we’re getting into the bulk of the season, with three of the next five races being on 1.5-mile tracks. Make sure you pay attention to who qualifies well here, as two of the previous three winners at this track have started on the front row. There will be a practice held after qualifying this week, so be sure to look at the average speeds during Happy Hour to help form your rosters.
Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:
1. Jeff Gordon - At the beginning of each NASCAR season, momentum seems to help drivers for the first few races. After a rocky start at Daytona, Gordon went and won in the desert last week, and will ride that momentum into one of his better tracks (especially lately). Jeff led the most laps in last year’s Vegas race, but didn’t get the win, and has finished outside of the top six just once here since 2005. With one win already at this 1.5-mile track, Gordon could easily make that two this week.
2. Kyle Busch - He didn’t get the sweep last week at Phoenix, but “Rowdy” left with the points lead and he and his brother are the only two drivers on the circuit with top tens in the first two races of the season. Kyle has two poles in his preview three starts at Vegas, and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen here since his rookie year. Busch’s average finish of 11.7 at this track is fourth-best in the series.
3. Jimmie Johnson - “The Champ” has made nine career starts at Las Vegas, and has led at least one lap in all but one of them. He’s still outside of the top twelve in points, but don’t expect that to be the case after Sunday. Johnson’s last six races here have netted him four wins, and while the other two were 24th and 29th-place finishes, those have been the only times Johnson has ended up outside of the top twenty in his career.
4. Jeff Burton - Richard Childress Racing needs to turn their season around quick, and Vegas could easily be the track for that to happen. Three of the four Childress Chevrolets are outside of the top twenty in points, and Burton finds himself mired in 32nd, with finishes of 36th and 26th to start the season. At Las Vegas, though, Jeff has just one finish outside of the top twenty in 13 career races, and two of his last three starts have ended with top fives. He has won here twice before, so don’t be surprised to find the 31 car up front on Sunday.
5. Greg Biffle - These “cookie cutter” tracks are where the Roush-Fenway Racing drivers are usually at their best, and Biffle is no exception. He had engine problems during his first start here in 2004 (giving him a 40th-place finish), but since then he hasn’t finished worse than 16th and has come away with five top tens. The Biff’s driver rating has been over 100 in five of his last six starts here.
6. Matt Kenseth - Another “Roushkateer” who should finish up front is Kenseth. Aside from his 43rd-place effort in 2009 (engine problem), the #17 Ford hasn’t finished outside of the top seventeen in eleven career starts. He has won here twice, and Matt has single-digit finishes in six of his previous eight races at Vegas. Look for Kenseth to get his first top ten of the season on Sunday, and possibly even a top five.
7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” was downright pissed at his pit crew last week in Phoenix, but the 29 team still battled back for a solid 4th-place finish even after being caught up in “The Big One”. Harvick hasn’t been stellar at Las Vegas, but in the past three races here his driver rating has averaged 106.4 and he has two top fives. His average finish of 12.8 here is ninth-best in the series.
8. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl really loved his car last week, and was very disappointed after wrecking it. He thought he had a car that could win last week, so hopefully Edwards brings that confidence into Vegas. He hasn’t finished worse than 26th here, but in six career starts he has only two top tens. He won here in 2008, though, and these are the kind of tracks he likes.
9. Mark Martin - Like Phoenix, Martin has been consistently good at Vegas. He won here in his first start and has ten top 10s in thirteen races here. His three races that didn’t end in top tens were 30th, 40th, and 43rd-place efforts, but two of those were due to engine problems. Mark finished 4th here in 2010 and has a career average finish of 12.8, which is 8th-best in the series at Las Vegas.
10. Denny Hamlin - In Denny’s first start at Las Vegas he came away with a 10th-place finish and went on to record three straight top tens here. In 2009, though, he ended that streak with a 22nd-place effort, and last year he finished 19th. He has never been stellar here, but Hamlin has completed all but one lap in his five starts at Vegas and will be looking for his first top ten of the season on Sunday. His career average finish here is 12.6, good enough for 6th-best in the series.
11. Joey Logano - Logano needs a good run pretty bad–as he finds himself 29th in points–and Las Vegas is an excellent track for him to get back on track. Engine woes ruined his race at Phoenix (and got him pretty angry), but he looked pretty good before that. Joey has made only two starts at Las Vegas, and has finishes of 6th and 13th to show for it. A good run will definitely turn his season around, and if he shows some speed in practice, a top ten isn’t out of the question for “Sliced Bread”.
12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Phoenix definitely isn’t Junior’s best track, but he managed to overcome a loose wheel problem last week and score his first top ten of the season. The crew chief swap at Hendrick seems to be helping Little E thus far, and a good run at Las Vegas will help him and crew chief Steve Letarte gel even more. Dale Jr. hasn’t finished outside of the top sixteen in his last four starts here and he finished runner-up to Edwards in 2008.
13. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” has been a little hit or miss at Vegas lately, but he’s coming off a solid top ten at Phoenix and is third in points behind the Busch brothers. Since 2005, Stewart has three top tens, but three finishes outside of the top 20 as well. He did accumulate four top fives in his first six starts at Las Vegas though, so he knows how to get around the track. Tony finished 7th in this race last year.
14. Kasey Kahne - Red Bull Racing seems to run well at the “cookie cutter” races, and these tracks are a strength of Kahne. He backed up his solid qualifying effort and fast practice times with a 6th-place effort in Phoenix, and I think that will boost his confidence this week. He’s made seven starts at this track and has came away with four top ten finishes. Be careful, though: Kasey is on a “streak” here. Through his whole career, Kahne has posted single-digit finishes during even-numbered years (9th, 6th, 4th, 2nd). In odd-numbered years, though, all of his finishes have been in the double digits (11th, 35th, 38th).
15. Clint Bowyer - You will look at Clint’s last two finishes here (8th and 2nd) and wonder why I have him ranked so low, but he hasn’t impressed me. His other three starts ended with 28th, 36th, and 15th-place finishes, though, and his driver rating hasn’t been over 90 in five races here (his best was 89.4 last year when he finished 8th).
Underdogs Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:
David Reutimann - You always have to watch out for Reutty on these “cookie cutter” tracks–he’s at his best on them. He got off to a rough start at Vegas with a 37th-place finish in 2008, but ended up 4th in 2009 and came home 13th last year. He’s mired back in points at 31st and needs a good run to get his season back on track.
Paul Menard - Some questioned how his move to Richard Childress Racing would fare, but Menard has had good runs since switching over. He’s 11th in points and was running near the top ten in Phoenix before going down a lap and finishing 17th. Menard had strong runs at “cookie cutter” tracks last year and finished a career-best 17th at Vegas while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports in 2010.
Bill Elliott - He won’t challenge for a top ten, but a 20th-place (or better) effort wouldn’t be surprising out of Elliott. He’s 18th in points and has finished outside of the top twenty only once in seven career starts at Vegas. He could be a nice pick in allocation leagues.
Marcos Ambrose - Ambrose was one of my underdogs last week and ended up 16th once it was all said and done. In two career starts at Las Vegas, Marcos has finishes of 14th and 20th. Kasey Kahne drove this car last year to a 9th-place effort at this track.
Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 400:
Juan Montoya - Chances are he will look real fast in practice, and then disappoint on Sunday. In four career starts here, Montoya hasn’t finished better than 19th and over the last two years he has finishes of 37th and 31st.
Kurt Busch - Busch is off to a great start this season, but I expect him to take a hit in the points this week. He finished 3rd here in 2005, but since then he has posted finishes of: 16th, 26th, 38, 23rd, and 35th. He will look like a good pick on Friday (his average start here is 5.2), but don’t say I didn’t warn you when he disappoints you on Sunday.
David Ragan - Roush is always a good way to go with picks at “cookie cutter” tracks, but stay away from Ragan this week. He had a top ten here in 2008 but his other three starts at Vegas have ended in finishes of 23rd or worse.
A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger is 4th in points, but don’t expect him to stay that high after this weekend. In two career starts at Las Vegas, A.J. has finishes of 25th and 33rd. His average finish on similar tracks is 18.8.
After this race, the boys will have an off-weekend until they hit Bristol the following week. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter, and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation. I’m a member, why aren’t you?
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