Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: Week 13 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (10-1) at Tennessee Titans (4-7) Tennessee may be 4-7, which isn’t a terrible record, but they are a terrible team. Of their 7 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more points and only one of their wins came by more than a field goal. Because of this, they are -97 in points differential. Only Philadelphia, Oakland, Jacksonville, and Kansas City are worse. Going off of this, they rank 30th in net points per drive, 29th in DVOA, and 29th in weighted DVOA. They are a team just as bad as the Eagles, Raiders, Chiefs, and Jaguars. In fact, last week they lost to the Jaguars even though they had a trend that was 22-3 ATS since 2002 on their side and the Jaguars had one that was 18-45 ATS since 2002 on their side. They’re terrible. The Texans, meanwhile, are one of the better teams in the NFL. They rank 3rd in net points per drive and 8th in DVOA and weighted DVOA. If we use the net points per drive method of computing line value, which takes the difference between the two teams’ net...