AccuScore Latest News provides readers with AccuScoreâ??s take on hot topics in sports. We cover a range of topics including the impact of trades, free agent signings, injuries, long-range season projections, and our take on the latest rumors.
July 28, 2009: Favre's Final Gift to the PackersIt was surprising to most when Brett Favre decided against coming out of retirement. With Favre, Minnesota was poised to win the NFC North again this year. Favre was not forecasted to have a great season, by his standards, but his ability to perform on third down and in the Red Zone was superior to the combination of Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson. When Favre plays well, the defense cannot load up the box with the defenders and this opens up opportunities for Adrian Peterson. When Favre plays poorly, defenders drop back into coverage in hopes of baiting him into throwing an interception. While interceptions are not good, this does have the benefit of taking defenders out of the box and again, leading to more opportunities for Peterson.
Favre was projected to put up better passing stats than Jackson / Rosenfels.
SIMULATION STATS CMP ATT % YARDS YPA TD INT Brett Favre 272 433 62.8% 3088 7.1 22 16 Jackson / Rosenfels 256 429 59.7% 2944 6.9 20 18More importantly, he helped the offense generate more first downs and more total plays which helped Adrian Peterson get 30 more carries over the course of the season. With Favre, Peterson was projected for 1784 yards and 14 rushing TDs. Without him he is forecasted for 1,600 yards and 12 rushing TDs.
AccuScore has the Green Bay Packers playing surprisingly well. The team out-scored opponents last season and were statistically much better than their 6-10 record would indicate. With Favre, Minnesota was holding off Green Bay and the improved Chicago Bears to repeat as NFC North Champs 42 percent of the time (best in the division)
-
WITH
FAVRE BACK
NFC
NORTH
PLAYOFF
WIN DIV
WIN
LOSS
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
65%
42%
10.2
5.8
GREEN BAY
PACKERS
52%
30%
9.8
6.2
CHICAGO
BEARS
47%
28%
9.4
6.7
DETROIT
LIONS
1%
0%
3.3
12.7
However, now that Favre is not coming back, the Packers are getting the surprise edge in the division. Perhaps this is Brett Favreâ??s parting gift to the Green Bay fans. One note for Vikings fans. Sage Rosenfels has 22 INTs in his past 2 seasons (15 games). If Rosenfels wins the starting job and can cut his interception rate by 33% (throw 1 INT per game, not 1.5) while still effectively passing downfield the Vikings would find themselves in a virtual tie for the division lead.
NO FAVRE NFC NORTH PLAYOFF WIN DIV WIN LOSS GREEN BAY PACKERS 60% 36% 9.8 6.1 CHICAGO BEARS 57% 35% 9.5 6.4 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 51% 29% 9.3 6.6 DETROIT LIONS 1% 0% 3.3 12.6July 28, 2009: Can Brewers Make a Run?
The Brewers have been fading in the NL Central. Besides Yovani Gallardo and his 3.09 ERA, the rest of the Brewers starters have a combined ERA of nearly 5.5. The rumor is that the Brewers are after Jarrod Washburn who has quietly had a terrific season going 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA and holding opposing batters to a 0.224 average.
AccuScore ran the rest of the season with Jarrod Washburn who should have around 11 starts with the team. In this relatively short period of time Washburn is helping the Brewers win 1.5 more games indicating he is helping the team win nearly 14% more of their simulations in each of his starts.
The Brewersâ?? chances of making the playoffs are not great even with Washburn, but their chances do double with him, up to 13.7 percent.
REST OF SEASON WINS LOSS WIN% WIN DIV% PLAYOFF% w/o Washburn 32.1 30.9 51.0% 5.2% 6.6% with Washburn 33.6 29.4 53.3% 11.3% 13.7% Washburn Impact +1.5 -1.5 2.4% 6.1% 7.1%
July 24, 2009: Holliday Impact on Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday. The Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central and despite some recent tough times AccuScore gave St. Louis a 51 percent chance of winning the division and a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In 10,000 season simulations run before the Holliday acquisition this is how the 4 contending NL Central teams finished on average.
NL CENTRAL - TOP 4 WINS LOSS WIN% DIV PLAYOFF St. Louis 86.8 75.2 53.6% 51% 54% Chicago 83.5 78.5 51.5% 19% 22% Milwaukee 82.3 79.7 50.8% 14% 16% Houston 81.9 80.1 50.6% 13% 14%We then re-ran St. Louisâ??s simulations with Matt Holliday starting most games and found a meaningful improvement in St. Louisâ??s forecast:
NL CENTRAL - TOP 4 WINS LOSS WIN% DIV PLAYOFF St. Louis 88.1 73.9 54.4% 58% 61% Chicago 83.5 78.5 51.5% 17% 20% Houston 81.9 80.1 50.6% 13% 15% Milwaukee 81.7 80.3 50.4% 13% 15%St. Louis is currently 52-46. In 64 games before the Holliday trade AccuScore had them averaging 34.8 wins at a 54.4% winning percentage. With Holliday this improves to 36.1 wins and the teamâ??s chances of winning the division increase by 14 percent (7 percentage points).
ST. LOUIS WIN LOSS WIN% Current Record 52 46 53.1% Before Trade 34.8 29.2 54.4% With Matt Holliday 36.1 27.9 56.4%In simulations Holliday is batting around .295 with an OBP of .390. These are slightly better than his season-to-date averages but lower than his past MVP Season levels. If Hollidayâ??s return to the National League results in him performing like it is 2007 when he hit .340 with 137 RBI, then the team could finish with as many as 90 wins.
July 23, 2009: Mark Buehrle Pitches Perfect Game Despite OddsMark Buehrle became just the 17th pitcher to throw a perfect game in the major leagues on Thursday dazzling the Rays throughout his 116 pitch performance. Two years ago he threw a no-hitter; a walk to Sammy Sosa was his only blemish then. Buehrle was perfect this time around.
The lefty needed a fantastic catch from defensive replacement DeWayne Wise to rob Gabe Kapler of a home run that would have ruined the perfect game, no-no, and shutout to boot. That just shows how difficult it is to actually accomplish the feat.
How unlikely was todayâ??s perfect game? Against Tampa Bay (which has the third most runs in the majors and second best team OPS) AccuScore gave Buerhle a 1-in-2000 chance of getting a no-hitter and 1-in-10,000 chance of getting a perfect game. Quite a rare feat indeed.
July 22, 2009: Odom Helps Miami Win 50 Games; Lakers Are Still 'OK'In the NBA there have been a flurry
of major free agent signings in the off-season. One of the last
big players still out there is Lamar Odom. AccuScore ran preliminary
2009-2010 simulations with Odom on the Lakers (along with Ron Artest)
and Miami essentially the same team that won 43 games in 2008-2009.
In 10,000 simulations the Lakers averaged 68 wins (3 better than last
season). Miami averaged 43 wins (same as last year).
We then simulated the 2009-2010 season
with Lamar Odom starting at PF for the Miami Heat and not coming off
the bench for the Lakers. AccuScore is a big fan of what Odom
does on the court. During the NBA Finals we wrote numerous pieces
on why the Lakers were better when they started and played Odom 32+
minutes and restricted Andrew Bynum to a bench role playing 15-20 minutes.
In simulations with Odom, the Lakersâ?? averaged 66 wins (down 2 from
the 68 they averaged with Odom). The situation would be worse
if the Lakers did not add Ron Artestâ??s defense, ball-handling and
passing abilities which off-set some of what Odom provided.
Miami saw a huge increase in wins going
from 43 wins to 51 wins per season simulation. If Lamar Odom wants
to feel appreciated he should go to Miami where he has the bigger impact.
Besides being a quality scorer the Heat could benefit mightily from Odomâ??s ball-handling and rebounding. There is too much pressure on Dwyane Wade to be both the primary ball-handler and scorer. It results in too many turnovers. Odom will help reduce the total number of turnovers Miami commits while also keeping Wade fresh by helping in this area. Odom is also one of the best rebounders per minute in the league. The Heat were 27th in the league in rebounding margin last season. With Odom they could at least be an average rebounding team. Odom helps the Heat get 3 more possessions per game thanks to more rebounding and fewer turnovers. Even if the teamâ??s offensive efficiency does not sky-rocket with Odom, just the sheer additional possessions help tremendously.
July 20, 2009: Texas Will Get â??Screwedâ? Again? Repeat of 2008 Scenario in Big 12AccuScore just ran a full season forecast for College Football and found an intriguing possible scenario in the Big 12. There are 3 great teams in the Big 12 â?? Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State. In Red River Rivalry simulations Texas is actually get the slight 54% to 46% advantage in simulations over Oklahoma. However, Oklahoma is getting the overall edge in the Conference with conference winning percentage of 85.8% vs. 81.4% for Texas.
BIG 12 SOUTH ALL FBS MATCHUPS CONFERENCE RECORD TEAM WIN LOSS WIN% WIN LOSS WIN% Oklahoma 9.85 1.16 89.5% 6.86 1.14 85.8% Texas 10.49 1.51 87.4% 6.51 1.49 81.4% Oklahoma State 8.51 2.49 77.4% 5.77 2.23 72.1% Baylor 7.35 3.65 66.8% 4.71 3.29 58.8% Texas Tech 6.43 4.58 58.4% 4.03 3.97 50.4% Texas A&M 3.11 8.89 25.9% 1.29 6.71 16.1%So how does Texas get the edge over Oklahoma, but Oklahoma gets the edge in the conference? Think of last season when Texas beat Oklahoma, but lost to Texas Tech (on the road). When Oklahoma killed Texas Tech (at home) they got the Big 12 South.
This seasonâ??s Texas Tech is Oklahoma State. They are a pre-season Top 10 team who faces Texas at Oklahoma State. The game is close with Texas winning 54% of simulations by an average of 1 point per simulation. In other words, it would not be a major surprise if Oklahoma State beats Texas just like Texas Tech did. However, Oklahoma is at home against Oklahoma State.
The Sooners are winning 81% of these simulations. If things shake out as forecasted, you could easily see Texas beat Oklahoma, then lose to Oklahoma State and then allow Oklahoma to win at home over OKST and get a repeat visit to the Big 12 Championship game and likely the National Championship game.
If Oklahoma beats Texas they can avoid this controversy, but donâ??t be surprised by a repeat of 2008.
July 16, 2009: Injuries Cost Mets 5 to 7 WinsAccuScore ran 5 different scenarios to evaluate the impact key Mets injured players have on the team. In the first scenario we simulated the rest of the 2009 Season with Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado all injured for the rest of the season. Under this scenario in 10,000 season simulations the Mets averaged 35.1 wins over the rest of the season with just a 46.8% winning percentage.
We then ran 3 scenarios where each player (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado) is healthy â??one at a timeâ? with the other two players injured the rest of the season. These 3 star players had a clear individual impact improving the Metsâ?? winning percentage by +2.7% for Delgado, +2.8% for Beltran and +3.3% for Reyes. While Reyes is having the biggest individual impact it does not necessarily mean that Reyes is the best player. It is more of a reflection of the depth the Mets have at their respective positions.
NY METS REST OF SEASON WINS LOSS WIN% PLAYOFF Delgado, Beltran, Reyes Injured 35.1 39.9 46.8% 2.7% Reyes Healthy, Others Injured 37.6 37.4 50.1% 5.5% Beltran Healthy, Others Injured 37.2 37.8 49.6% 5.2% Delgado Healthy, Others Injured 37.1 37.9 49.5% 5.1% All 3 Players Healthy 40.0 35.0 53.3% 9.5%The Mets injuries have taken an obvious toll on a team with high expectations. If all 3 players were healthy the Mets win 53.3% of their remaining schedule games which is nearly 5 more wins than they would have without these 3 players. Depending on when they come back the injuries to these key players will likely cost the Mets 5 to 7 total wins.
AccuScore did not pick the Mets to win the NL East, but it did project the Mets to have 85 wins in its pre-season forecast and be in position to get a Wildcard spot. However, if injuries to Delgado, Reyes and Beltran ultimately cost the team 5 wins then the Mets finish under .500 and have under a 10% chance of making a second half run to the playoffs.
July 16, 2009:Derrick Mason RetiresDerrick Mason surprised the Ravens announcing his retirement. Even with Mason the Ravens were extremely thin at Wide Receiver. While losing Mason hurts, this team was going to win by running the ball, and playing great defense. Joe Flacco is good enough to lead the team to wins even if he has sub-par talent at WR.
With Mason the Ravens averaged 10.2 wins in 10,000 season simulations and made the playoffs 74% of the time. Without Mason, they still make the playoffs 70% of the time on 9.9 wins per season simulation.
So the Mason retirement hurts, but it should not devastate the team. If Baltimore can acquire a talent like Anquan Boldin they could see their simulation win total increase to over 10.6 and they would actually lead the AFC North in projected wins and playoff percentage.
July 15, 2009:Pedro Helps Phillies, A little bitThe Phillies have struggled with getting a reliable 5th starter. Even though Pedro Martinez is well past his prime and is weeks away from being healthy enough to start for Philly, AccuScore does see Martinez making a positive impact on the team. In roughly 12 projected starts Pedro is helping the team win 0.4 more games per simulation which improves the Philliesâ?? chances of winning the division from 68% to nearly 71%.
PHILADELPHIA WIN WIN DIV PLAYOFF Current Forecast 88.6 68.0% 70.9% w/ Pedro Martinez 89.0 70.8% 73.4% IMPACT 0.4 2.8% 2.5%
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