Originally posted on Football Nation  |  Last updated 6/6/13
Urban Meyer is a magic man! In his first season as Ohio State's coach, the team went from 6-7 in 2011 to 12-0. That is more than just good coaching. That is an amazing turn around for any team. In Meyer's eleven-year head coaching career, he now has two undefeated seasons, two BCS Championships and a 116-23 coaching record. No wonder the national media has already lined up behind Meyer's Ohio State team to declare them championship contenders this year. If championships can be determined based solely on a coach's record, it looks like the Buckeyes will take the title in 2013. But hold on just a minute!As usual, the national media has found its preseason darling. It happens every year. It sells papers and magazines and gives talk radio great subject matter. And as is almost always the case, it is completely wrong. Why? Because this No. 1 ranking is based on last year's results and emotion, instead of analysis.With all due respect to Meyer and the great tradition of Ohio State football, I need to call a time-out on this national champion coming out party. While I do think that Ohio State will have a very good team and a great year in 2013, they simply are overrated in the preseason rankings. So what makes me qualified to say Ohio State isn't going to win the title? That's simple. I have observed this happening every year for about forty years. In all that time, I can only recall it being correct a couple of times. If you just avoid getting all caught up in the whirl-wind generated by the national media and look at this team objectively, you would see a top 10 to 15 team, with a favorable schedule. Last summer, it was all about USC and how they were going to win it all. The AP ranked them No. 1 in the preseason and everybody said they were back. Well, not everybody. There were some of us who saw a team that was fortunate to go 10-2 the year before. So, in July I wrote an article that said USC was the most overrated team in the country. I have to say, that article did make me popular in L.A. Not well-liked, but popular.  Before buying into the hype that Ohio State will somehow go undefeated again and win the title in Meyer's second year, just look a bit closer. First, I don't remember the last time a college team went back-to-back undefeated. I recall Oklahoma being all that for about three years in a row back in the '60s. But, nowadays, it just doesn't happen. Also, Ohio State won five of 12 games last year by a touchdown or less -- that just won't happen again, either. Ohio State was a good football team that had a magical run in 2012. You can definitely credit at least some of that to Urban Meyer. In addition, I feel very strongly that Meyer will win a national title - or more than one - during his rein in Columbus. I just do not think this year's team will have the defense or the magic to get to that game. Ohio State does have a favorable schedule this season. As a result, they may win 10 or more. Based on analysis on their team and their opponents, expect Ohio State to lose at least twice during the regular season in 2013. While they may be good enough to play for the conference title, there will be no national championship in Columbus this year.  Ohio State fans be happy. Your team lost one heck of a football coach due to the scandal of 2010, were reprimanded, and just two years later went 12-0. To top it off, you have one of the finest coaches in football now. OSU is back, is relevant again and will be really good this year. But, you won't win the title in 2013.  
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