Sabermetric Bracketology 2011

I've been applying sabermetric (or, more appropriately, APBRmetric) principles to my NCAA bracket selections for the past three years. In the contest that uses upset points, I was the big winner the first two years, then fell to a disappointing fourth place last year. So, I've been looking to change my methodology for this year.Fortunately, master prognosticator Nate Silver came up with his own bracket forecast this year, which I was able to modify for my upset contest's scoring system.To recap the upset scoring system, a team gets a point per round for winning (one point for winning in the round of 64, two for the round of 32, up to six for winning the championship game), plus bonus points for defeating a lower ranked seed. Bonus points are the difference between the two seeds. For example, if a 12 beats a 5 in the first round, they get one point for the win, plus 12 - 5 = 7 bonus points, for a total of 8.I then took the potential points each team gets for the win a...