Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals (46-40) v Chicago Cubs (41-41)

The Cubs enter this series in third place in the (weak) NL Central, 3 games back from the Cardinals. A sweep (unlikely) could see the Cubs in first place at the All-star break. People will tell you that Albert Pujols is the best player on this team, but that is a lie. Jarrett Hoffpauir has a team-best season wOBA of .600, proving that Latin players will never be the best and that the Cards should trade Pujols to the Cubs for Micah Hoffpauir, to make sure that they cash in on those genetics. In all seriousness though, the word on the tubes this week is that the Cardinals are “seriously” interested in acquiring Roy Halladay. I still don’t think it’s likely that the Blue Jays trade him, but if the Cards do get him the rest of the division is screwed. Even if the Cubs start hitting like they should again it would likely be a tall order to beat a team headlined by Carpenter and Halladay. Really what they would need is for everyone to start hitting AND Rich Harden to start pitching like he was the best pitcher in the National League again. The Cards would look quite good for 2010 as well, as Halladay has another year on his contract before becoming a FA. Injuries Just as the Cubs got healthy, Dempster went on the DL with a fracture in his big toe caused by jumping over the dugout railing to celebrate a win. It’s just that kind of season, I guess. Soto was held out of yesterday’s game with an oblique injury, and it is unclear how serious the injury is. Luckily, M-rk D-R-s- is on the DL with wrist problems, sparing us eleventy billion standing ovations at Wrigley this weekend. Troy Glaus is likely out for the rest of the season, as he’s still having difficulty even throwing in his rehab. Lohse will make his first start on Sunday after coming off the DL for a forearm strain in his throwing arm. Players to watch I’m actually going to go with Rich Harden here. The pitching matchups were reshuffled during this series and now Harden is facing Carpenter. (edit: they were reshuffled again, but I’m too lazy to change this. My point still stands about Harden). I actually like this change, because if we continue to get the Home Run King version of Harden, it’s a game the Cubs were likely to lose anyway, and if he’s actually on his game (like he was two starts ago), he’s the best pitcher on the staff to match up with Carpenter. For the Cardinals, I’m going to go with Ryan Ludwick. He’s had a dissapointing season thus far (.329 wOBA), but he’s been on a bit of a tear lately, and the Cardinals need his bat (or Halladay’s arm) if they’re going to ensure that they stay in first place for the long term this season. Pitching matchups Friday: Brad Thompson, RHP (5.06,4.54) v Rich Harden, RHP (5.11,3.34), 1:20 PM Actually, even though the rotations were reshuffled I still like this matchup at first glance. However, Thompson is an extreme GB pitcher, which FIP doesn’t really take into account very well. He has a comical 3.23 K/9 this year (and 4.14 for his career) but has decent command (2.38 BB/9). He does give up a fair number of HRs though (1.19 HR/9). Speaking of HRs, Harden returned to his homer-happy ways in his last start, giving up 2 HR and 7 runs in only 2 innings of work against Milwaukee. Will we get the 9 K, 1 BB, 0 HR Harden we saw 2 starts ago? Somehow I don’t think so. I think the Cubs lose this game, getting two or three baserunners on every inning v Thompson and grounding into 6 double plays. Saturday: Chris Carpenter, RHP (2.55,3.06) v Ted Lilly, LHP (3.90,4.00), 3:10 PM CT One bright spot in this matchup is that the Cardinals hit lefties quite poorly (.679 OPS v .763 v RHP). They really miss Glaus’s lefty-mashing bat. Lilly has been quite good this season and has really stepped up in big games, so this is easily the game to watch in this series. Of course, I’m sure the game will be blacked out here on FOX, and I might be blacked out myself since I’m doing a hat trick of brewery tours in the Fort Collins area that day. Sunday, game 1 Kyle Lohse (?), RHP (4.05,3.97) v Randy Wells, RHP (3.30, 4.18), 12:05 PM CT Lohse and Wainwright are pitching on Sunday, but it’s unclear in which order. I’m speculating that Lohse starts first since he’s coming off the DL and likely won’t go too far into the game. Wainwright is more likely to go deep in the game so if they burn their bullpen here it’s not really a big deal. You could probably make a similar argument in the other direction though, so who knows. Wells has pitched out of this year, and this should be another good game. Sunday, game 2 Adam Wainwright (?), RHP (3.64,3.59) v Carlos Zambrano, RHP (3.89.398), 7:05 PM CT Wainwright is quite good at baseball, and continues to put up good numbers this year. He’s a decent hitter too so both teams won’t have as big a hole in the lineup as usual. Z selfishly volunteered to pitch on three days rest in his last start, hurting the team’s chances by allowing two runs over 6 innings. The Cubs offense shut itself down to ensure that Z did not get the W that he was hoping to pad his stats with. Prediction Honestly, the matchups in all these games are quite good. A series split is most likely here, leaving the Cubs three games out going into the break.