Found December 30, 2011 on Fox Sports:
Atlanta_falcons_v_cd4c
We're in the final steps of our long and winding road through the 2011 fantasy season. Are you going to tiptoe to the finish line or will you demonstrate your flair for the dramatic? Does a championship win inspire a victory dance, a somersault or do you merely act like you've been there before and open a new spreadsheet titled "2012?" I'll do a full-on review of the year that was later in the week to provide bulletin board material. In the interim, I'll turn back to the field one final time for "Lineup Calls 2011." We're looking for gold at the secondary positions while watching the playoff field take shape. Happy New Year, indeed. Tight Ends Exclude: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis Harmon's QB Calls Harmon's RB Calls Harmon's TE Calls Week 17 TE Heroes Brent Celek vs. WAS: Celek has been the most valuable Philadelphia player (not named McCoy) from a fantasy perspective this season. He's logged multiple receptions in 10 consecutive games, including back-to-back efforts with a touchdown reception coming into the finale. Celek caught four passes for 42 yards with a touchdown in the Week 6 Philadelphia win over Washington. The Redskins have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Brandon Pettigrew vs. GB: Pettigrew's Week 16 performance served as a reminder of how well he operates in space. His nine receptions raised his season total to 76, and his touchdown reception was his fifth (second in three games). He's a huge play this week against the generous Green Bay defense that has surrendered the most fantasy points to tight ends. Jared Cook at HOU: Cook was on the radar as a "Ninja" candidate for 2011, and he delivered tepid results for most of the campaign. However, he's logged back-to-back 100-yard games and has an opportunity to finish the year strong against Houston. He scored one of only three touchdowns surrendered to tight ends by the Texans in Week 7, though he finished the game with just two receptions and 22 receiving yards. Still, Cook's high target count of late makes him worthy of a spot start. Ed Dickson at CIN: Dickson hasn't quite broken through with the monster splash I expected out of training camp, but I suppose his total of 53 receptions is a good start. He's scored in back-to-back games and figures to assume a large role in the finale in tandem with the running game. The absence of Anquan Boldin has made Dickson the go-to receiver in the red zone. Jermaine Gresham vs. BAL: Gresham has been a steady contributor to owners in PPR leagues this season with his 51 receptions and 524 receiving yards (six touchdowns). As such, he rates a back-end TE1 play this week against Baltimore, the second-stingiest squad against tight ends. Gresham caught three passes for 48 yards in the first meeting between these teams, and his role has been consistent in support of Andy Dalton. It's not a huge spot, but he's the No. 2 target to A.J. Green (I apologize to fans of the somersault out there). Week 17 TE Flop Alerts Jermichael Finley vs. DET: Finley returned to practice on Thursday for the Packers, but there's still no word on how much or if he'll play against the Lions. He discussed his health and the need for rest earlier this week, so proceed with caution. Kellen Winslow at ATL: The standard rules apply to Winslow in the season finale. If you want a solid, safe total in PPR leagues, then plug Winslow into your lineup. If you are looking for a big hit, then look elsewhere. Winslow's 63 receiving yards in Week 16 marked his best total since Week 11 and just the third time he topped 60 receiving yards all season. Additionally, he hasn't scored since Week 9. * Winslow caught two passes for 20 yards against the Falcons in Week 3. Dustin Keller at MIA: Keller has posted back-to-back 70-yard days (73 and 77, respectively), so he's on the radar for a possible back-end TE1 play this week. I'm still reticent to plug him into the lineup. His lone touchdown receptions since Week 2 came against the Bills in Week 12. Like Winslow, he's a solid PPR option (58 receptions), but he actually provides solid weekly yardage output (nine games with at least 50 receiving yards). * Keller caught two passes for 51 yards in the first meeting between these teams. Week 17 TE Ninja Alerts Jacob Tamme at JAC: The Jaguars have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends and surrendered 75 receiving yards on six catches to Tamme in Week 10. As a result, Tamme is on the board this week despite a low weekly target count of late (single receptions in three straight games). D.J. Williams vs. DET: I have no reason to believe that Williams will play a significant role in this game at all, but he may see multiple targets with Jermichael Finley ailing. Aaron Rodgers will put up points for whatever period he plays, and Matt Flynn likely utilizes the tight end position frequently upon his insertion into the lineup. Jeremy Shockey at NO: Shockey has suddenly emerged as the go-option option for Cam Newton in the red zone. The veteran tight end has scored in three straight games (four overall) and has logged four multi-reception games in his past five appearances. He's already played against his former squad, but what better way to cap this season than to score in New Orleans. Kickers Week 17 Kicker Plug-In Options Mike Nugent vs. BAL: The Ravens rank third in total defense (16.7 points allowed per game), but rank 14th against kickers. Opponents have converted 25 field goals and 25 PATs against Baltimore this season Nugent has converted multiple field goals in four of the Bengals' past five games. He offered one field goal and three PATs in the first meeting between these squads. Dan Carpenter vs. NYJ: Carpenter was a fantasy hero during the 2010 season despite the Dolphins' weak offensive output. Put the horrid first half of the Dolphins' season out of your mind and let's evaluate recent play. Carpenter has converted seven field goals and 11 PATs in the past four weeks. The Jets are tied for ninth in terms of fantasy points allowed to kickers (25 field goals and 37 PATs). Carpenter converted two field goals in the first meeting. Olindo Mare at NO : Starting Mare is clearly a roll of the proverbial dice in this Week 17 contest. However, the Carolina offense (Cam Newton) has afforded him ample PAT opportunities down the stretch. Mare has converted at least one field goal worth of PATs in eight of the Panthers' past nine games. He's been hit-or-miss in the field goal category, having converted multiple field goals three times while being shut out three times. Matt Prater vs. KC: Bring on "Super Jock" for the finale. Of course, we'll be monitoring wind conditions in Denver on game day, but this game smacks of a low-scoring, ball-control kind of contest. His range obviously extends at the home field. Prater was shut out in the field goal category by the Bills in Week 16, the second time that he's been shut out this season. He converted one field goal and two PATs in the first meeting, well in line with Kansas City's defensive efforts overall (22 field goals and 37 PATs). Week 17 Kicker Flop Alerts Matt Bryant vs. TB: Why does Bryant appear here? I believe he's one of the safest plays for Week 17, as I expect him to line up for multiple PATs (the Buccaneers have allowed 53). However, I'm fearful that we don't see multiple field goal tries against this flailing Tampa Bay defense. Opposing kickers have combined for 22 field goals (Bryant had two in the first meeting). Nick Folk at MIA: Folk was a reliable option for owners during the first half of the season. Since then, he's alternated games of zero field goals and two field goal conversions. If you believe that the pattern holds, then he's due for a two-field goal effort against the Dolphins. I'm not banking on a huge effort when I see zeroes in that column four times in the past seven weeks. Nick Novak at OAK: I put Novak on the board for this week out of concern that the Chargers crater in this season finale. Will the "Rally for Norv" battle cry work? Or, will the offense limp to the finish line? Novak has converted at least one field goal in nine straight games with four multi-field goal efforts during this streak. He converted one field goal and two PATs in the first meeting with Oakland. Defense Week 17 Defense Plug-In Options Seattle at ARI: We like John Skelton's cornerback mentality and willingness to push the ball downfield, particularly those Larry Fitzgerald owners among us. We also like Skelton's approach when scouring the wire for spot plays in the Defense slot. He's frequently among the leaders in interceptions, thereby making this rising Seattle secondary becomes mighty intriguing for the finale. The Seahawks quietly rank fifth in total defense (19.5 points allowed per game) and have generated 30 turnovers (21 interceptions). Arizona has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Atlanta vs. TB: What else is there to say? The Falcons are angry after being embarrassed on Monday night by Drew Brees in his record-setting performance. The Buccaneers are limping to the end of the season and have, frankly, played terribly since taking that trip to London. As a result, I'm putting John Abraham and the Falcons on the board to induce turnovers by Josh Freeman and the sputtering Tampa Bay offense. The Falcons will put points on the board against the crumbling Buccaneers secondary. As a result, Freeman goes into comeback mode and tries to force things, something he didn't do with regularity in 2010. Tampa Bay, with its 36 turnovers and 30 sacks, has been the second-most generous team to fantasy defenses this year. Miami vs. NYJ: The Jets cruised to a 24-6 win over Miami in the first meeting back in Week 4. This game has a much different feel. The Jets are scrambling for a playoff berth. Jason Taylor has announced his intention to retire again. And, let's face it. The New York offense has been a wildly inefficient and maddening operation to watch down the stretch. The Jets have tied for the fourth-most fantasy points allowed to defenses (31 turnovers and 38 sacks). Philadelphia vs. WAS: The Eagles were a hot option on draft day and slowly started to work back to the wire following a less than dominant start to the 2011 season (I really need to get this holiday "spirit" out of my head). This is a solid spot to get Philadelphia back in action against Rex Grossman. Remember, the Eagles harassed Grossman into four interceptions and cost him his job in the short-term earlier this season. The Redskins have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to defenses this season. The motivation of a 8-8 season may not seem huge, but the Eagles would run the table in the final quarter. Again with the cheeriness! Week 17 Defense Flop Alerts Dallas at NYG (both sides): It's rare that you go into the final game of the season (literally, as this will be the last game played in the 2011 regular season) and can draw up one dozen scenarios as to how the game will play out. Both teams rank in the top eight in terms of sacks this season. However, both have been exposed repeatedly in the secondary when that pass rush failed to find its mark. The Cowboys and Giants will score points, without a doubt, so it comes down to the ill-timed turnover. I know the headline writers are already hard at work preparing their Coughlin-Manning-Ryan-Romo quips. I just don't believe that Manning and Romo implode altogether. Denver vs. KC: Will back-to-back beatdown to New England and Buffalo send the Broncos into the tank? No, but I don't believe that the Broncos will force the turnovers and big plays necessary to make them fantasy-worthy this week. The big knock on Kyle Orton was that he was a safe quarterback who didn't take chances. If that's the case, then turnovers won't be plentiful here, and three-and-outs only count for so much in the "Points Allowed" category. Baltimore at CIN: Something about this game doesn't feel right. The Bengals have sold it out and avoided the dreaded "blackout" embarrassment. They're vying for a playoff berth. The Ravens' offensive coordinator and quarterback are taking shots at one another in the press. Cincinnati scored 24 points in the first meeting. You start Baltimore this week, but I'm not feeling a huge effort.
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