Statistical Significance and Accuscore's Betting System

ACCUSCORE’S STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

AccuScore never claimed to be a Crystal Ball or your ticket to millions of dollars.  We do claim that we are the best in the business of making accurate sports picks and offer by far the best value in the industry.

This article reviews our accuracy across multiple sports.  It shows the significant profits we generated along different betting lines and sports.  Ultimately, making money ($) is the way to prove one’s value in this business.

But, for you more statistically inclined people, you may find the following data interesting.  We looked at our point spread and over/under bets across sports.  If a system has no value then over a large sample size you should see 50% accuracy.

Below is a table of our accuracy.  The % Chance indicates the probability that a 50/50 system could generate AccuScore’s accuracy across the designated sample.  For example, AccuScore was 55.3% accurate in NBA point spreads where the betting line for the Home Team is -5.5 or higher.  There were 468 picks made and only a 1.2% chance that a 50/50 system could generate a 55.3% accuracy result.

In hard sciences the key metric for statistical significance is under 5% chance.  Our accuracy in every type of bet was not statistically significant.  However, if you add up every single point spread and over/under you would have a sample of nearly 10,000 and AccuScore is statistically significant to a level of 0.1%!

ALL SPORTS

ACCUSCORE

SAMPLE

% CHANCE

Point Spread

51.4%

4899

2.5%

Over Under

54.1%

4880

= -5.5)

55.3%

468

1.2%

Over Under (All)

55.8%

791

0.1%

NCAA BASKETBALL 2008-2009

ACCUSCORE

SAMPLE

% CHANCE

Point Spread (All)

51.4%

3234

5.5%

Over Under (All)

53.5%

3165

0.1%

NFL 2008

ACCUSCORE

SAMPLE

% CHANCE

Point Spread (All)

51.6%

213

34.1%

Point Spread (3+ PT Diff)

53.0%

115

28.8%

Over Under (All)

57.1%

245

1.5%

Over Under (3+ PT Diff)

58.2%

158

2.3%

NCAA FOOTBALL 2008

ACCUSCORE

SAMPLE

% CHANCE

Point Spread (All)

51.7%

681

17.9%

Point Spread (5+ PT Diff)

60.0%

150

0.9%

Over Under (All)

53.6%

679

3.3%

Over Under (5+ PT Diff)

56.1%

187

5.5%