Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/12/13
The relentlessly Canadian Marc Hulet published earlier today his first organizational prospect list of the 2013-14 offseason — in this case, for the Chicago White Sox. It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, that Hulet has considered the overall value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the White Sox or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong. What this brief post concerns isn’t overall value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014. Steamer Projections: White Sox Batting Prospects Below are the 2014 projections for select White Sox batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages. # Name Age POS PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA BsR Off Def* WAR 4 Marcus Semien 23 3B 550 .248 .318 .402 .318 1 0 3 2.2 8 Trayce Thompson 23 OF 550 .223 .285 .388 .297 0 -10 -3 0.6 14 Carlos Sanchez 22 2B 550 .250 .294 .317 .274 -1 -21 5 0.3 7 Micah Johnson 23 2B 550 .211 .250 .277 .236 -1 -37 3 -1.7 2 Courtney Hawkins 20 CF 550 .173 .218 .293 .227 0 -41 3 -2.1 Steamer Projections: White Sox Pitching Prospects Below are the 2014 projections for select White Sox pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages. # Name Age IP K% BB% GB% FIP ERA WAR 1 Erik Johnson 24 150 17.0% 9.1% 43.3% 4.43 4.78 1.2 10 Daniel Webb 24 50 21.4% 11.5% 44.5% 4.15 4.12 0.6 5 Christopher Beck 23 150 13.0% 10.0% 41.9% 5.04 5.43 0.1 9 Scott Snodgress 24 150 13.0% 11.7% 41.9% 5.26 5.66 -0.2 11 Chris Bassitt 25 150 13.5% 12.1% 41.9% 5.31 5.63 -0.3 13 Andrew Mitchell 22 150 10.3% 12.4% 41.9% 5.75 6.14 -1.0 Notes • Steamer — or, at least, the computer math which informs Steamer — appears less moved by Marcus Semien‘s 1:22 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 71 late-season major-league appearances than by the excellent plate-discipline figures he recorded with Double-A Birmingham. • Trayce Thompson‘s defensive projection is based largely on how he split 2013 between center and right field at Double-A Birmingham. As Hulet notes, however, Thompson might very well profile as a league-average center fielder, at least. Readers, therefore, are probably justified in assuming slightly more optimistic defensive figures for Thompson. • Courtney Hawkins is representative of a certain sort of prospect, perhaps, with which projection systems might have some difficulty — that is, a physically impressive one who’s been promoted rather aggressively. • It’s probably fair to say that the White Sox don’t have much in the way of impact pitching talent at the moment — certainly not of the major-league-ready variety. Erik Johnson is the closest thing to that, at the moment. • On a per-inning basis, right-handed reliever Daniel Webb could be the most productive of Chicago’s pitching prospect in 2014. He was excellent in his brief exposure to the majors in 2013. To wit: 11.1 IP, 21.7% K, 8.7% BB, 56.3% GB, 80 xFIP-, 0.2 WAR.
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