The Importance of This Tampa Bay Series

I was fiddling around with the standings to see how important this next series against Tampa Bay was.  Coming off their 9-1 home stand, the Yankees are 60-38 and lead Tampa Bay (54-45) by 6.5 games.  Here are the four scenarios: Tampa Bay sweep Yankees: 60-41 Rays: 57-45, 3.5 GB Tampa Bay takes two of three Yankees: 61-40 Rays: 56-46, 5.5 GB Yankees take two of three Yankees: 62-39 Rays: 55-47, 7.5 GB Yankees sweep Yankees: 63-38 Rays: 54-48, 9.5 GB If the Yankees can take two of three then go 31-30 over their final 60 games of the season, the Rays would have to go 38-22 (.633 WPCT) over their final 60 games to catch them.  That’s the equivalent to a 103 win pace.  If the Yankees sweep, the Rays would have to go 40-20 (.666 WPCT / 108 win pace) to catch a 31-30 Yankee team. Log5 would tell us the Rays should take two out of three, but if the Yankees can improve on that, theyR...