Found April 20, 2008 on
Four Blocks to Miller Park:
My theory is that winning and losing records in baseball are entirely dependent upon the net runs each team can generate above the expected average (that plus some pitching statistics that I won't get into today). By "net runs" I mean the combination of Runs Created ("Offensive Runs") above the average at each player's position (as determined by Baseball Prospectus' "RAP" statistic) and Runs Prevented ("Defensive Runs") above the average at each player's position (as calculated by me, using the number of balls hit into the player's zone, the number of outs the player made on those balls as compared to the average number of outs made on the same number of balls, and the number of outs the player made on balls outside the player's zone as compared to the average number of "out of zone" outs normally made given an equivalent number of "in zone" opportunities. These calculations are all based upon statis...
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