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 | | Posted on: 8/13/2008 |
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| Written by Zach Harper |
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Posted on 1/31/2008 7:15:07 AM |
The cat is officially out of the bag with the recent public enlightenment that Jason Kidd no longer wants to be a New Jersey Net and would love to be traded as soon as he possibly can. In case you have been held captive without any source of sports media or you are senile enough to think that Bob Cousy and Bill Sharman are still heavily involved with the youth movement of the NBA, Jason Kidd has been one of the greatest point guards to ever play this game. In fact, since he has come into the NBA in 1994, Kidd has amassed over 14,000 points, 1,969 steals (good for 11th all time), and 9,149 assists (5th all time). He will most likely finish second amongst all NBA players for career assists by the time his career is over. I would even argue that he would be considered the greatest point guard of all time if he was a deadly shooter.
In terms of fantasy point guards, Kidd is probably the third greatest point guard of all-time behind Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson. His inability to make a jumpshot consistently is the only thing that held him back from grabbing and maintaining the top spot. Kidd has been a triple-double waiting to happen for the past 10 seasons, and for a time, was one of the best defensive guards in the NBA, which helped him amass quite a few steals. So, the idea of trading this guy will not only impact the real NBA world, but also the fantasy basketball world that we all love to exist in. It will not only mean changes to the Nets players, but also changes to the players who will have the privilege of calling Jason Kidd, “their new teammate.”
The teams rumored to be the frontrunners in this potential trade situation are Dallas, the LA Lakers, Cleveland and Denver. The Nuggets have recently expressed through unnamed sources that they will not be able to make a deal unless someone like Kenyon Martin was involved, and as all fantasy owners can relate, nobody wants to take a chance on having him on their team. ESPN.com’s Chris Sheridan threw in the Sacramento Kings as a wildcard suitor, so we will replace the Nuggets with the Kings for the sake of speculating.
Here are the Top 4 Suitors for Jason Kidd, and the potential trades that would work to make it happen:
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavs Get: Jason Kidd
Nets Get: Drew Gooden, Daniel Gibson, Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall
This seems like a very reasonable deal for Cleveland if they are willing to trade Drew Gooden, but with Anderson Varejao injured for the next three to four weeks, this might seem like a bit of a stretch now. It would give the Nets plenty of flexibility with the cap in 2009 when all of the good free agents will start becoming available. In terms of fantasy, it would have a tremendous impact on the Cavs two wingmen. However, it is not the impact that you would expect. In terms of fantasy value, Larry Hughes would go up tremendously and LeBron James would suffer.
Hughes would now be set up to score by one of the greatest table setters in history. His scoring average would probably rise from 9.8 points per game right now to around 17 or 18 points per contest. Hughes’ shooting percentages would increase with his easier shots and new found confidence. His success on the offensive end has always resulted in a greater effort on the defensive side, so you could definitely expect him to go over 2 steals per game (he is at 1.66 now). James, on the other hand, would not commandeer the ball as much, and therefore, his assists, which are part of the reason for why he is so valuable, would decrease. However, King James’ scoring would probably increase by 2 or 3 points per game along with his percentages.
For New Jersey, the Nets would give Drew Gooden the full-time starting power forward position, which could negatively impact fantasy teams that employ either Josh Boone or Sean Williams. Also, Daniel Gibson’s value would decrease because he would not get shots over Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson (whose scoring would not suffer significantly because of Marcus Williams’ passing ability).
Sacramento Kings
Kings Get: Jason Kidd, Jamaal Magloire
Nets Get: Mike Bibby, Francisco Garcia, Kenny Thomas
This deal actually makes the most sense for both teams. The only way it gets done is if the pot is sweetened with Francisco Garcia for the Nets. The only way the Kings throw in Garcia is if the Nets will take the insufferable Kenny Thomas and his even more insufferable contract. For the Kings, Ron Artest, John Salmons, and Kevin Martin would begin to be the hottest fantasy commodities. Kevin Martin would benefit the most from this because Kidd could get the ball to him in ways than Mike Bibby simply cannot do. Artest would be able to play on the block more because Kidd would require him to… and you are not disagreeing with Jason Kidd.
For the Nets, Carter and Jefferson would suffer the most because Bibby would take shots from them away. However, Bibby’s value would increase because he would have scorers to pass to and they would take the pressure off of Bibby to open up scoring opportunities for him. Players like Josh Boone and Sean Williams may become more valuable because Bibby is not a good defender at all and he will give them more opportunities for blocking shots.
Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers Get: Jason Kidd
Nets Get: Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, Trevor Ariza, Chris Mihm
This may be the most irrational trade for either team to make. The Lakers success no longer relies on finding a capable point guard (because Andrew Bynum is why they are much better this year). They have had phenomenal play from the combination of Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar. As hard as this may be to come to grips with, the play of Jason Kidd would not significantly upgrade that position for Los Angeles. In terms of fantasy, Kobe Bryant’s value would not increase as most people assume. In the triangle offense that Phil Jackson utilizes, the point guard rarely makes plays to set up other teammates. The point guard is more valuable for knocking down shots to take the pressure away from the stars (Bryant and Bynum). Kidd cannot do that consistently.
In turn, Bryant would still be creating most of his own shots in the high and low posts. He may get an extra fast break basket or two per game, but is that really a significant upgrade for someone who regularly drops 30 points? For the Nets, a potential trade would just mettle with the idea of Marcus Williams taking over at the point because he would now have to battle with Javaris Crittenton. The trade would not have much of a fantasy impact on the Nets because of the players coming in being so insignificant to the direction that they would be heading.
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks Get: Jason Kidd, Malik Allen
Nets Get: Jerry Stackhouse, DeSagana Diop, Devean George, Trenton Hassell, Jose Juan Barea
This is where things get complicated. There is a rumor of a three-team deal that would involve the Trailblazers, and it is too far fetched and would take too long to explain the impact of it all. It also is very unlikely because it virtually makes no sense for the Blazers to get involved. On the other hand, this deal between only the Mavs and Nets makes complete sense for both teams. Kidd would instantly make Mavs players like Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki even more valuable because their scoring and scoring efficiency would increase dramatically. For someone like Nowitzki, it would catapult him into being a Top 5 player in fantasy.
The deal would also make someone like Devin Harris completely unownable in most fantasy leagues. Kidd would dominate the ball and Harris would probably become the third point guard on the team. It would also make someone like Jerry Stackhouse useless to fantasy owners because he would be competing with Carter and Jefferson for the same positions and shots. A Mavs player like Brandon Bass would skyrocket in value because with Diop gone, the Mavs would heavily rely on him for inside presence when Erick Dampier is being completely useless. This deal makes a lot of sense and if Mark Cuban feels like his team does not have the leadership at the point (Harris is not exactly lighting the league on fire this year), Cuban could definitely throw in a draft pick to make this deal worth it for the Nets.
Impact on the Nets
As far as the Nets fantasy players go, no matter who gets dealt, Marcus Williams becomes extremely valuable for fantasy owners. He is not owned in the majority of fantasy leagues right now, but with his ability to score and pass the ball, he would definitely become more valuable than point guards like Daniel Gibson and Devin Harris. Jefferson and Carter would still be able to score as much as they do now, but their value may decrease because they would be taking tougher shots to score those points. You can definitely be assured that their shooting percentages would suffer from the downgrade in point guard talent.
With the young big men, Sean Williams and Josh Boone, their production would also suffer. Williams only scores off of setups from Kidd, such as alley-oops and thread-the-needle passes. If he is not scoring and rebounding properly, then Williams will sit the bench for someone like Nenad Krstic (who is due back soon). Boone has been a great rebounder in his time so far since cracking the lineup, but he too would have to work a lot harder for his statistics than he is now. Think about how dangerous of a rebounder Kidd is on the glass. When you take away that one extra player who opposing teams have to box out, it makes the rebounding task for Williams and Boone that much harder.
Do I think that Jason Kidd will be traded before the deadline? Not really. It is definitely a possibility and I think that the Mavs and Kings have the best chance to get something done. However, I do not see it happening before the draft when picks can be valuable trade commodities.
Nevertheless, if Kidd does get dealt, expect the fantasy impacts to be immensely significant.
Check out more commentary and analysis from Zach Harper at TalkHoops.net. |
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