Stumble It!Mark's take - The Wolfpack got a much needed win versus Florida State and hope to carry that momentum into the Duke game. It's no secret that the Pack has plenty of weapons inside where they have an abundance of depth. Their achilles thus far has been the perimeter, but they have got some adequate play of late. The player Duke must watch out for is Senior, Gavin Grant. He makes the Pack tick and if he's on, they can be formidable.
The Blue Devils refused to look ahead despite some in the media trying there best to get them too. If the Blue Devils are hitting from the outside, they'll be tough to beat. It will be important for the Dukies to run at will in order to offset their height disadvantage. Hopefully, the students wearing "green" in a show of activism will not effect the homecourt edge. While I have seen a lot of activism since the sixties, I am torn on whether disrupting the wearing of royal blue is the way to get a point across. Part of me thinks it is an the expense of the home team and they are cheated out of being the center of attention. On the other hand, I am big on freedom of speech. Still, I'd rather see Cameron blue.
Duke will focus on the task at hand. Duke 86 NC State 71
Bob's take - from a statistical perspective, State is having a terrible season. The ACC tracks 17 categories and State is dead last in six: scoring offense, scoring margin, rebounding margin, steals, turnover margin, and offensive rebounds. They are in the bottom fourth of three more categories: three point FGs made (11), assist/turnover ratio (10), and assists (10). Meanwhile, Duke leads the ACC in four categories, is second in another four, and is in third place in one more. These statistic go a long way in explaining why Duke enters the game a 17 point favorite.
However, the game is decided on the court so the Blue Devils are going to have to beat the Wolfpack on the court, not in the statistician's spreadsheets. The Wolfpack are not going to roll over so the Blue Devils need to be prepared to execute for 40 full minutes.
State is big inside but they lack a reliable point guard. Last season Duke soundly beat State during the regular season, but State won when the two teams matched up in the first round of the ACC Tournament. The difference? Point guard Ensin Atsur did not play in the regular season game as he was out with an injury. Atsur has graduated and State has not adequately replaced their floor general. The key to this game will be Duke's perimeter defense and the ability to convert turnovers into transition points. I sound like a broken record with this same pre-game analysis, but the fact is Duke's strength is their perimeter defense. State's big front line players cannot score without the ball and Duke's strategy will be to deny them the ball by exploiting State's turnover tendencies.
On offense, Duke will attack the 3-point line and the rim. The key will be to keep State off balance, which will result in their defense not being able to counter either of Duke's strengths. I am anticipating Duke lighting it up from behind the 3-point arc and scoring lots of points in transition. This should be an exciting game and I am looking forward to seeing freshmen sensations Kyle Singler and J.J. Hickson go head-to-head.
My prediction: Duke 87 - State 66
 N.C. State Off vs. Duke Def |
Duke Off vs. N.C. State Def |
| 67.4 Pts F 65.2 Pts A 45.6 FG% 41.7 FG% 32.4 Reb. 31.9 Reb. |
85.2 Pts F 65.3 Pts A 48.5 FG% 40.0 FG% 31.9 Reb. 32.2 Reb. |
Game Quick Facts
TV: Raycom; Bob Rathbun (play-by-play), Billy Packer (analyst). espn2; Mike Patrick (play-by-play), Jay Bilas (analyst).
Radio: Duke Radio Network (flagship WDNC 620 AM in Durham); Bob Harris (play-by-play), John Roth (analyst) and Matthew Laurance (sideline).
All-Time Series: Duke leads the all-time series, 132-96. The Blue Devils have won 10 straight in the series at home and are 43-23 all-time at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Blue Devil Bits• Duke is 17-1 overall and 5-0 in the ACC, following a 93-84 road win over Maryland on Sunday. N.C. State is 13-6 overall and 2-3 in league play following a 69-66 win at Florida State on Saturday.
• Duke is ranked third in both the AP poll and the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll. The Blue Devils have spent 227 weeks ranked in the top five of the AP poll under Coach K. N.C. State is unranked in both polls.
• Senior DeMarcus Nelson went 10-of-19 from the field and 6-of-8 from the foul line while scoring a career-high 27 points in Duke’s win over Maryland. He also led the Blue Devils in rebounds (7), assists (4) and steals (4). Nelson tallied 19 of his 27 points in the second half as Duke overcame a nine-point halftime deficit.
• Gerald Henderson matched a career-best with 23 points, including 16 in the first half, against Maryland. The Merion, Pa., native went 9-of-12 from the field and 4-of-6 from the foul line while adding five rebounds, two blocks and a steal in a career-high 33 minutes of action.
• Freshman Nolan Smith added 14 points and six rebounds, while Greg Paulus also reached double-figures with 12 points against Maryland. The point guard duo is averaging 19.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in ACC play.
• Duke forced 22 turnovers on Sunday and posted a 29-12 advantage in points off turnovers. The Blue Devils have forced at least 20 turnovers in a game 10 times this season, including each of the past three games. During the last three games, Duke has forced 65 turnovers, while committing just 33.
Numbers Game• 4 Duke has not allowed more than four made three-point field goals in its five ACC games. They are holding opponents to an ACC-low .266 (17-of-64) three-point field goal percentage.
• +5.61 The Blue Devils lead the ACC in turnover margin (+5.61) while forcing a league-high 19.5 turnovers per game this season. Over the last three games, Duke has a +10.7 turnover margin, while forcing 21.7 turnovers per game.
• 9 Duke has recorded 10 or more steals in a game nine times this season, including five of the last six contests. The Blue Devils are averaging 8.72 steals per game for the season and lead the ACC with 11.40 steals per game in conference-only contests.
• 9.4, 3.8, 3.4 Nolan Smith is averaging 9.4 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game in league play. He is shooting 50.0 percent (17-of-34) from the field and 91.7 percent (11-of-12) from the foul line versus conference foes.
• +20.0 Duke leads the ACC and ranks third nationally with a +20.0 average scoring margin. The Blue Devils have won eight games by 20 or more points and have won 14 games by 10 or more points.
• 22.5 Over the last four home games, DeMarcus Nelson is averaging 22.5 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. He has scored 20 or more points in all four games and is shooting .711 (32-of-45) from the field and .611 (11-of-18) from three-point range during that stretch.
• 23 Junior Greg Paulus has made his last 23 free throw attempts, including a perfect 14-for-14 in five ACC games to lead the conference.
• 23.6 Duke averages 23.6 points per game off turnovers and has scored more points off turnovers than the opposition in 13 of 18 games. The Blue Devils have scored 91 points off 65 turnovers in the last three games (30.3 ppg.).
• 58.6 Duke is shooting 58.6 percent (112-of-191) from inside the three-point line in ACC play. The Blue Devils are shooting just 32.5 percent (39-of-120) from three-point range in conference play, after shooting at a 42.2 percent (119-of-282) clip behind the arch in non-conference action.
• 85.2 The Blue Devils are averaging 85.2 points per game to rank fourth in the nation and second in the ACC. Duke has five games this season with 90 or more points.
• 228 Duke and N.C. State have met 228 times on the hardwood with the Blue Devils owning a 132-96 lead in the all-time series. The Duke-Wake Forest series is the only matchup in ACC history with more games played (230).
• .592 Gerald Henderson is shooting .592 (29-of-49) from the field in conference only games this season. His field goal percentage is the second highest in the ACC and he also ranks 12th in scoring at 16.0 points per game in ACC contests.
• 719 Mike Krzyzewski is tied with former UTEP coach Don Haskins for seventh all-time on the list of most wins by a coach at one school with 719.
Cameron Going GreenOn Jan. 31, Duke University will participate in Focus the Nation – a national teach-in that will engage millions of students and citizens around global warming solutions. The day’s activities feature events across campus including expert panels, a sustainability fair on the Bryant Center Plaza and a green democracy roundtable with North Carolina elected officials. The day will culminate in a carbon-neutral Duke basketball game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where much of the Duke blue will turn green. The famed Cameron Crazies will get free green t-shirts emblazoned with the Green Devil and the slogan, “Bleed Blue. Live Green.” The pep band’s blue and white crew shirts will be swapped for green and white, and the Blue Devil mascot will don a special green cape for the occasion.