They might have lost their big ace, but the Twins still offer a fine combination of youth and veterans to field their starting rotation.

Minnesota Twins Projected Rotation

1. Francisco Liriano

2. Scott Baker

3. Boof Bonser

4. Livan Hernandez
5. Kevin Slowey

Closer: Joe Nathan

Well, it was quite the offseason for the Minnesota Twins. It is not very likely you get the unenviable task of being forced to trade the best pitcher on Planet Earth, but that’s the hand that was dealt to new GM Bill Smith. Unfortunately, he was forced to settle for what many consider to be 50 cents on the dollar for Mr. Santana, receiving an outfield prospect, two mediocre pitching prospects, and a low A ball pitching prospect. So, the Twins are now forced to move on and deal with life after Santana, with all the trials and tribulations that may offer.

Possibly softening the blow of losing a two (should’ve been three) time Cy Young winner is the return of phenom Francisco Liriano. Liriano came over to the Twins in, quite possibly, the most lopsided deal in baseball history, which sent AJ Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for Liriano, would-be closer Joe Nathan, and now Number three starter Boof Bonser. Somehow San Francisco GM Brian Sabean still has a job. Liriano proceeded to take the AL by storm in 2006, pitching like a mini-Santana. Built approximately the same, the left hander featured a wicked 90-MPH slider that hitters could not touch. He lit up the AL for 12 Wins in 16 starts, racking up 144 K’s in 121 innings and managing a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. In a word, he was awesome. However, sliders aren’t meant to go 90 MPH, and Liriano was shut down in mid-season and was forced to have Tommy John surgery. Now, some 16 months after the surgery, he returns, likely stronger than before. The expectations for Liriano are across the board. Some say he can’t possibly be expected to produce anywhere close to the level he was at before after being away from the game for a year and half. Others say he’s actually had longer to recover than normal from Tommy John surgery and is likely to have less setbacks than normal recoverees. Basically, no one knows. However, I will say this: If there is one player on the board that’s worth overdrafting a few rounds for…..Liriano is that guy. No one offers the potential he does from what is currently projected to be a 12^th round selection. At worse, he could be below league average, and you wasted a 10-12^th round pick….who cares? At best, you just drafted Johan Santana in the 10-12^th round. You aren’t going to find value like that anywhere else…..he’s worth the risk.

Scott Baker has been bounced back and forth between Minny and AAA for the past three seasons, finally settling in last season with a solid spot in the rotation. He took that opportunity and turned it into 9 wins and 4.26 ERA with below average defense behind him. Baker’s previous problem had been allowing the long ball. In 16 major league starts in 2006 he allowed 17 HR. In 2007 he was able to keep that problem at bay, giving up only 15 in 23 starts. With some slightly better defense behind him, he has a chance to put up an ERA around 4.00 with around 140 K’s over 30 starts.

Falling in line behind Baker is Boof Bonser, the other guy in the Pierzynski trade. After a surprising 2006 season in which he won 7 games in 18 starts with a 4.22 ERA along the way, he regressed quite a bit in 2007. He ERA rose to 5.10 and his WHIP to 1.53. His HR rate remained the same, but he suffered some control problems walking approximately a batter more per game. Another problem was in his inability to get left-handed hitters out. Lefties hit 150 points higher off him than right-handed hitters. To expect any sort of success in 2008, Boof is going to need to stop walking people and find some discernible way to get lefties out. His minor league numbers suggest he’ll always have some control problems, but the lefty problems might be temporary. For now, I’d hold off on drafting him to see what he’s got in store this season.

The fourth and fifth spots are occupied by guys at completely opposite ends of their baseball career. Livan Hernandez was signed basically because he was a guy that was capable of pitching 200 innings. They likely won’t be worth much by way of fantasy statistics. He’s never been much of a strikeout guy, and certainly won’t be in 2008. Moving from the NL to the AL isn’t working in his favor either. Essentially, the Twins needed a guy who would throw a lot of innings, and Livan does just that. He’s made 30 starts every year since 1998, and threw over 200 innings in every year but one (he only managed 199 2/3 that year). That is quite an impressive feat, but does nothing for us fantasy players. Kevin Slowey rounds things out. Slowey is a guy, along with former Twin Matt Garza, that was considered one of the better pitching prospects in the organization after Liriano. Now, he’s going to get the opportunity to start full-time. Slowey is by no means particularly dominant and doesn’t get nearly enough ground balls for my tastes, but has shown considerable command throughout the minors. He walked significantly less than 2 runners per game in the minors and maintained that level in a brief stint in the majors last season. If he can keep that up, he’s got a chance to be a pretty decent major league pitcher. He’s definitely worth a late round flier, if he’s still available, but don’t go out of your way to overdraft him in earlier rounds.

Closing things out, for now, is one of the best in the game. Joe Nathan is most likely going to be a closer, no matter where he goes. If the Twins opt to resign him, he’ll continue what he’s always done. If he’s traded….well, we’ll just deal with that when the time comes. One thing of note, however, is Nathan is 33 years old, and struck out his lowest total since joining the Twins. He’ll save between 30-40 games, and he’ll do so with a very low ERA and WHIP, but for some that’s not enough. Some want a high strikeout total out of their closer, and there’s a chance Nathan could continue his drop in that department. Just something to keep in mind.