2008 Predictions
The good news is you get your Sunday post a little earlier than usual. The bad news is no Sunday Notes this week, instead you get the Fragile Freddy 2008 predictions. Each division is in predicted order of finish with “What Everyone is Asking” and then “What Everyone Should Be Asking” followed by the Outlook for each team.
After each division I will have some brief notes about the division. I will finish up with Award winners and other interesting stuff at the end.
On with the show;
AL East
Boston Red Sox – Projected Record 93-69
What Everyone is Asking – The health of the starting rotation
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Per Bill James Online the Sox got 84% of their plate appearances from guys in their Opening Day lineup last year, no other team got over 77%. How will the Sox handle the inevitable injuries that they avoided so fortuitously in 2007?
Outlook – Barring a major injury run the Red Sox should be one of the best teams in baseball.
New York Yankees – 92-70
What Everyone is Asking – Can the young pitchers step up in their first full season?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can Joe Girardi handle the intense scrutiny that comes with the job of Yankee manager? He seemed to struggle with the scrutiny in Florida, will this be an issue in New York or did he learn from the experience?
Outlook – The Yankees have the highest upside of any team in baseball. A lot of things can go wrong though and they should be right there come late-September.
Tampa Bay Rays – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – Do the youngsters make The Leap® in 2008?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can the bullpen give them a chance to compete in 2008?
Outlook – I love the 2008 Rays. They are going to play with a no fear style that is going to piss off everyone they face and annoy the hell out of opposing teams. If they can stay healthy and get a couple breaks this is a team that could win 90 games this year. 80 is a minimum and 85 should be the target.
Toronto Blue Jays – 80-82
What Everyone is Asking – Can the pitching staff stay healthy enough to be a weapon?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What is the real Vernon Wells? The 2003/2006 version or the 2002/2004/2005/2007 version?
Outlook – I am not as high on this team as others. They are a solid but unspectacular team and I question their offense. This feels like a .500 team to me.
Baltimore Orioles – 66-96
What Everyone is Asking – How will the development of young players particularly Adam Jones and Adam Loewen be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Might Melvin Mora have some trade value between now and July 31st?
Outlook – Disaster. This team has the potential to be extraordinarily bad. There isn’t a proven starter on the staff and the bullpen is thin. Add to that a weak offense and a poor defensive team and there isn’t a floor low enough.
Notes - The Sox and Yankees are likely to reenact the 2005 race where they battle each other down to the wire. Injuries and replacement players are likely to be pivotal as they were in that year. With Tampa improved and Toronto lurking a bit 95 wins may be a tall order, 92 might be enough and that may mean that the runner-up misses the playoffs.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians – 94-68
What Everyone is Asking – How will Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia rebound from the high innings counts of 2007?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Rafael Perez looked spent in the playoffs, why is he not being lumped into conversations with Sabathia and Carmona given his importance to the 2007 squad?
Outlook – I think the Indians have as much starting pitching depth as any team in the AL and remain the team to beat in the division despite the Tigers’ additions.
Detroit Tigers – 92-70
What Everyone is Asking – Can Dontrelle Willis adapt to the American League?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What’s going to happen in the bullpen? Zumaya’s out, Rodney’s is hurt, Jones is not that good.
Outlook – The Tigers heavily resemble the 2006/2007 Yankees. 90+ wins are there for the taking simply by bashing lower tier teams but this isn’t a team set to just roll over the American League.
Kansas City Royals – 76-86
What Everyone is Asking – What kind of growth do the young players make?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – How will Trey Hillman adjust from “smallball” Japan to “pitching and three-run-homers” US baseball?
Outlook – A solid season that gives Royals fans hope for the first time since their 2003 season, this time with more reason.
Minnesota Twins – 72-90
What Everyone is Asking – What does Francisco Liriano have in the tank?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Carlos Gomez better suited in Minnesota or in AAA?
Outlook – Pretty bleak for 2008. Joke about Carlos Silva all you want but losing 200 innings of league average performance on the heels of losing Santana is pretty devastating. Add in the Garza deal and they lost 504 innings (35%) of 3.73 ERA which they are making up with Livan Hernandez and…? Their solid bullpen should help but this could be ugly.
Chicago White Sox – 69-93
What Everyone is Asking – Can’t anyone here play this damn game?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – No, really, can’t anyone here play this damn game?
Outlook – Can you tell I’m not impressed? The addition of Swisher is a good one for the worst offense in the AL in 2007 but they still have a long way to go and I question their pitching staff heavily. The bullpen particularly is troublesome.
Notes - I can’t stress how much I like the Indians this year. I think they are going to see a little decline from Fausto Carmona but they should be able to buffet that with better performances at the back end of their rotation. I think the Royals are a light version of Tampa Bay and are a little closer to competing than they are given credit for.
The Tigers will be the 2006 Yankees pounding bad teams but trying to compensate for a horrid bullpen. The Twins and White Sox should be pretty disappointing.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – How will the outfield rotation sort itself out?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Was Scot Shields simply going through a bad stretch in the second half or is he spent as an effective reliever?
Outlook – Division champs. There is a nice talent base here and Scoscia does a nice job with it. Add in a pretty unimpressive rest of the division and this is the Angels’ for the taking.
Seattle Mariners – 84-78
What Everyone is Asking – How good can the combination of Bedard and King Felix be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can the bullpen be as effective as it was in 2007?
Outlook – The Mariners should be a solid team but solid in an 83-86 win way, not a 90-95 win way. Put another way, I think they are more likely to be sub-.500 than Tampa is.
Texas Rangers – 76-86
What Everyone is Asking – What’s going to be the pecking order in the bullpen?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Ron Washington part of the solution or part of the problem?
Outlook – The Rangers have some nice things going for them. I’m less than impressed with the work of Ron Washginton and I’ll be curious to see what decisions he makes regarding some position battles. They could sneak into second with some off years in Seattle but truly competing is a tall hill to climb.
Oakland Athletics – 71-91
What Everyone is Asking – What kind of young player development will happen in 2008?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Who among Blanton, Chavez and Street will still be here on August 1st.
Outlook – The loss of Haren hurts but the ballpark should mask some of that. If they can get something going offensively they could challenge .500.
Notes - This division does nothing for me as you probably surmised. The Angels may have this thing locked by Memorial Day if their pitching injuries do not become overwhelming. The Mariners played over their heads last year and I expect the bullpen to regress. If the pitching comes together in Texas they could contend while Oakland should be competitive.
NL East
Atlanta Braves – 91-71
What Everyone is Asking - Can they keep up with the Mets and Phillies?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Are they the best team in the division?
Outlook – Unlike the Mets and Phils the Braves feature no glaring weaknesses and will surprise the baseball world with a division title.
New York Mets – 89-73
What Everyone is Asking - What will Pedro Martinez give them?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Did the window close temporarily on an aging ballclub?
Notes - The Mets have talent but little depth. With injuries to Delgado and Alou already and a fragile pitching staff I fear they are not as good as we think they are.
Philadelphia Phillies – 84-78
What Everyone is Asking - How will the pitching staff perform?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Shane Victorino an everyday centerfielder?
Outlook – The Phillies should be there throughout the season though their pitching will leave them short.
Washington Nationals – 73-89
What Everyone is Asking - How will Nationals Park impact the team?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can a strong bullpen push them to be more than the sum of their parts and nudge the squad over .500?
Outlook – The Nats are moving to what should be a substantially better hitters’ park. This may have some impact on some performances but won’t change what is still a building process.
Florida Marlins – 70-92
What Everyone is Asking – How do the young players continue to progress?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can Hanley Ramirez’ defense improve enough for him to be a true superstar or is he Alfonso Soriano?
Outlook – This isn’t that bad a team. They ain’t real good but they ain’t awful either. The pitching staff needs a lot of work though.
Notes - I’ve become less optimistic about the Mets as the Spring has worn on. They are an older team and I’m not sold on their pitching staff. If Pedro is healthy and effective I could wind up looking really dumb on this one though as a healthy Pedro plus Santana give the Mets the best chance to blow the division apart.
The Braves are very good having been 3rd in runs scored and runs allowed in the NL last year. With Hudson and Smoltz they have a 1-2 punch to rival anyone and a full season of Teixeira can only help. The Phillies pitching will do them in while the Nats and Marlins will fight for 4th.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs - 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – Who is the closer?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is the lineup being set properly?
Outlook – The most well-rounded team in the worst division in baseball should have little trouble securing a title.
Milwaukee Brewers – 85-77
What Everyone is Asking – Is another step forward in the cards?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Did money spent on the bullpen get spent wisely?
Outlook – The Brewers should take further steps forward and I like what they’ve done with the bullpen (Gagne will be an excellent pickup and I love Riske). They should be better than in 2007.
Cincinnati Reds – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – What to do with Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Cueto
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Dusty Baker the right man for the job?
Outlook – Like the Braves I’m fascinated by this team. They have some depth and the addition of Francisco Cordero will solidify the back of the bullpen. Harang and Arroyo give this club some strength in the rotation as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 81-81
What Everyone is Asking – Is .500 attainable at long last?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Will Jason Bay rebound from a disappointing 2007?
Outlook – A talented and young pitching staff will make this team tough on a nightly basis and could make them a real sleeper if the Cubs and Brewers stumble.
St. Louis Cardinals – 70-92
What Everyone is Asking – What is the right thing to do with Albert Pujols’ arm?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can injured hurlers Mark Mulder, Cris Carpenter and Matt Clement chip in?
Outlook – This feels like an organization going backwards, not forward. If the injury trio can contribute that could change quickly.
Houston Astros – 63-99
What Everyone is Asking – Is Miguel Tejada still an elite player?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is it time to deal Oswalt?
Outlook – A thin pitching staff, an offense long on names but short on ability and a bleak farm system make the Astros the worst organization in baseball at the moment.
Notes - Three, and maybe four teams could compete for the title in the Central. The Cubs are the best of the lot but by no means are they unstoppable. If the Brewers, Reds and yes Pirates can get some career years and a few breaks any of them could win the division. The Cardinals are scuffling and won’t go anywhere while the Astros are just awful. Oswalt’s declining K rate may be a sign that his time as an elite hurler nears an end.
NL West
Colorado Rockies – 93-69
What Everyone is Asking – Was 2007 a fluke?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – How will young hurlers like Morales and Jimenez fare in their first full seasons?
Outlook – It wasn’t a fluke. They led the NL in run differential and should be better than they were in 2007.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – How dominant will Haren/Webb be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What is decisive; the negative run differential or the expected improvement in young players?
Outlook – The D-Backs could conceivably play better but win fewer than they did in 2007. They should be neck and neck with the Rox throughout the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 85-77
What Everyone is Asking – How will Torre integrate the young players with the veterans?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is this the deepest pitching staff in the National League?
Outlook – The Dodgers should be competitive particularly behind a strong and deep pitching staff but they will come up a bit short in the end.
San Diego Padres – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – Can the outfield get the job done?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is the back of the rotation sufficient?
Outlook – A pitching staff given too much credit because of the park they play in will not get the job done enough to bring them to the post-season.
San Francisco Giants – 63-99
What Everyone is Asking – Where will the offense come from?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Do fans want “clean” players or do they want winners?
Outlook – The Giants will be bad but a gifted pitching staff will keep this from being a complete disgrace.
Notes - This should be the most exciting division race in baseball. While the NL Central also features several teams capable of pulling out the title this division will do so at a higher caliber of baseball.
I’ll finish this preview with my predictions for the top three finishers for the Awards plus some other thoughts;
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, David Oritz
NL MVP – Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton
AL Cy Young – Scott Kazmir, Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang
NL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson
AL Rookie of the Year – Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury
NL Rookie of the Year – Kosuke Fukudome, Franklin Morales, Jay Bruce
AL Manager of the Year – Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year – Bobby Cox
AL Player to Watch – Kevin Youkilis
NL Player to Watch – Adrian Gonzalez
AL Hitting Disappointment – Jim Thome
NL Hitting Disappointment – Carlos Delgado
AL Pitcher to Watch – Jeremy Bonderman
NL Pitcher to Watch – Jeff Francis
AL Pitching Disappointment – Andy Pettitte
NL Pitching Disappointment – Brett Myers
After each division I will have some brief notes about the division. I will finish up with Award winners and other interesting stuff at the end.
On with the show;
AL East
Boston Red Sox – Projected Record 93-69
What Everyone is Asking – The health of the starting rotation
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Per Bill James Online the Sox got 84% of their plate appearances from guys in their Opening Day lineup last year, no other team got over 77%. How will the Sox handle the inevitable injuries that they avoided so fortuitously in 2007?
Outlook – Barring a major injury run the Red Sox should be one of the best teams in baseball.
New York Yankees – 92-70
What Everyone is Asking – Can the young pitchers step up in their first full season?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can Joe Girardi handle the intense scrutiny that comes with the job of Yankee manager? He seemed to struggle with the scrutiny in Florida, will this be an issue in New York or did he learn from the experience?
Outlook – The Yankees have the highest upside of any team in baseball. A lot of things can go wrong though and they should be right there come late-September.
Tampa Bay Rays – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – Do the youngsters make The Leap® in 2008?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can the bullpen give them a chance to compete in 2008?
Outlook – I love the 2008 Rays. They are going to play with a no fear style that is going to piss off everyone they face and annoy the hell out of opposing teams. If they can stay healthy and get a couple breaks this is a team that could win 90 games this year. 80 is a minimum and 85 should be the target.
Toronto Blue Jays – 80-82
What Everyone is Asking – Can the pitching staff stay healthy enough to be a weapon?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What is the real Vernon Wells? The 2003/2006 version or the 2002/2004/2005/2007 version?
Outlook – I am not as high on this team as others. They are a solid but unspectacular team and I question their offense. This feels like a .500 team to me.
Baltimore Orioles – 66-96
What Everyone is Asking – How will the development of young players particularly Adam Jones and Adam Loewen be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Might Melvin Mora have some trade value between now and July 31st?
Outlook – Disaster. This team has the potential to be extraordinarily bad. There isn’t a proven starter on the staff and the bullpen is thin. Add to that a weak offense and a poor defensive team and there isn’t a floor low enough.
Notes - The Sox and Yankees are likely to reenact the 2005 race where they battle each other down to the wire. Injuries and replacement players are likely to be pivotal as they were in that year. With Tampa improved and Toronto lurking a bit 95 wins may be a tall order, 92 might be enough and that may mean that the runner-up misses the playoffs.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians – 94-68
What Everyone is Asking – How will Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia rebound from the high innings counts of 2007?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Rafael Perez looked spent in the playoffs, why is he not being lumped into conversations with Sabathia and Carmona given his importance to the 2007 squad?
Outlook – I think the Indians have as much starting pitching depth as any team in the AL and remain the team to beat in the division despite the Tigers’ additions.
Detroit Tigers – 92-70
What Everyone is Asking – Can Dontrelle Willis adapt to the American League?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What’s going to happen in the bullpen? Zumaya’s out, Rodney’s is hurt, Jones is not that good.
Outlook – The Tigers heavily resemble the 2006/2007 Yankees. 90+ wins are there for the taking simply by bashing lower tier teams but this isn’t a team set to just roll over the American League.
Kansas City Royals – 76-86
What Everyone is Asking – What kind of growth do the young players make?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – How will Trey Hillman adjust from “smallball” Japan to “pitching and three-run-homers” US baseball?
Outlook – A solid season that gives Royals fans hope for the first time since their 2003 season, this time with more reason.
Minnesota Twins – 72-90
What Everyone is Asking – What does Francisco Liriano have in the tank?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Carlos Gomez better suited in Minnesota or in AAA?
Outlook – Pretty bleak for 2008. Joke about Carlos Silva all you want but losing 200 innings of league average performance on the heels of losing Santana is pretty devastating. Add in the Garza deal and they lost 504 innings (35%) of 3.73 ERA which they are making up with Livan Hernandez and…? Their solid bullpen should help but this could be ugly.
Chicago White Sox – 69-93
What Everyone is Asking – Can’t anyone here play this damn game?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – No, really, can’t anyone here play this damn game?
Outlook – Can you tell I’m not impressed? The addition of Swisher is a good one for the worst offense in the AL in 2007 but they still have a long way to go and I question their pitching staff heavily. The bullpen particularly is troublesome.
Notes - I can’t stress how much I like the Indians this year. I think they are going to see a little decline from Fausto Carmona but they should be able to buffet that with better performances at the back end of their rotation. I think the Royals are a light version of Tampa Bay and are a little closer to competing than they are given credit for.
The Tigers will be the 2006 Yankees pounding bad teams but trying to compensate for a horrid bullpen. The Twins and White Sox should be pretty disappointing.
AL West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – How will the outfield rotation sort itself out?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Was Scot Shields simply going through a bad stretch in the second half or is he spent as an effective reliever?
Outlook – Division champs. There is a nice talent base here and Scoscia does a nice job with it. Add in a pretty unimpressive rest of the division and this is the Angels’ for the taking.
Seattle Mariners – 84-78
What Everyone is Asking – How good can the combination of Bedard and King Felix be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can the bullpen be as effective as it was in 2007?
Outlook – The Mariners should be a solid team but solid in an 83-86 win way, not a 90-95 win way. Put another way, I think they are more likely to be sub-.500 than Tampa is.
Texas Rangers – 76-86
What Everyone is Asking – What’s going to be the pecking order in the bullpen?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Ron Washington part of the solution or part of the problem?
Outlook – The Rangers have some nice things going for them. I’m less than impressed with the work of Ron Washginton and I’ll be curious to see what decisions he makes regarding some position battles. They could sneak into second with some off years in Seattle but truly competing is a tall hill to climb.
Oakland Athletics – 71-91
What Everyone is Asking – What kind of young player development will happen in 2008?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Who among Blanton, Chavez and Street will still be here on August 1st.
Outlook – The loss of Haren hurts but the ballpark should mask some of that. If they can get something going offensively they could challenge .500.
Notes - This division does nothing for me as you probably surmised. The Angels may have this thing locked by Memorial Day if their pitching injuries do not become overwhelming. The Mariners played over their heads last year and I expect the bullpen to regress. If the pitching comes together in Texas they could contend while Oakland should be competitive.
NL East
Atlanta Braves – 91-71
What Everyone is Asking - Can they keep up with the Mets and Phillies?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Are they the best team in the division?
Outlook – Unlike the Mets and Phils the Braves feature no glaring weaknesses and will surprise the baseball world with a division title.
New York Mets – 89-73
What Everyone is Asking - What will Pedro Martinez give them?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Did the window close temporarily on an aging ballclub?
Notes - The Mets have talent but little depth. With injuries to Delgado and Alou already and a fragile pitching staff I fear they are not as good as we think they are.
Philadelphia Phillies – 84-78
What Everyone is Asking - How will the pitching staff perform?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Shane Victorino an everyday centerfielder?
Outlook – The Phillies should be there throughout the season though their pitching will leave them short.
Washington Nationals – 73-89
What Everyone is Asking - How will Nationals Park impact the team?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can a strong bullpen push them to be more than the sum of their parts and nudge the squad over .500?
Outlook – The Nats are moving to what should be a substantially better hitters’ park. This may have some impact on some performances but won’t change what is still a building process.
Florida Marlins – 70-92
What Everyone is Asking – How do the young players continue to progress?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can Hanley Ramirez’ defense improve enough for him to be a true superstar or is he Alfonso Soriano?
Outlook – This isn’t that bad a team. They ain’t real good but they ain’t awful either. The pitching staff needs a lot of work though.
Notes - I’ve become less optimistic about the Mets as the Spring has worn on. They are an older team and I’m not sold on their pitching staff. If Pedro is healthy and effective I could wind up looking really dumb on this one though as a healthy Pedro plus Santana give the Mets the best chance to blow the division apart.
The Braves are very good having been 3rd in runs scored and runs allowed in the NL last year. With Hudson and Smoltz they have a 1-2 punch to rival anyone and a full season of Teixeira can only help. The Phillies pitching will do them in while the Nats and Marlins will fight for 4th.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs - 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – Who is the closer?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is the lineup being set properly?
Outlook – The most well-rounded team in the worst division in baseball should have little trouble securing a title.
Milwaukee Brewers – 85-77
What Everyone is Asking – Is another step forward in the cards?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Did money spent on the bullpen get spent wisely?
Outlook – The Brewers should take further steps forward and I like what they’ve done with the bullpen (Gagne will be an excellent pickup and I love Riske). They should be better than in 2007.
Cincinnati Reds – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – What to do with Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Cueto
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is Dusty Baker the right man for the job?
Outlook – Like the Braves I’m fascinated by this team. They have some depth and the addition of Francisco Cordero will solidify the back of the bullpen. Harang and Arroyo give this club some strength in the rotation as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 81-81
What Everyone is Asking – Is .500 attainable at long last?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Will Jason Bay rebound from a disappointing 2007?
Outlook – A talented and young pitching staff will make this team tough on a nightly basis and could make them a real sleeper if the Cubs and Brewers stumble.
St. Louis Cardinals – 70-92
What Everyone is Asking – What is the right thing to do with Albert Pujols’ arm?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Can injured hurlers Mark Mulder, Cris Carpenter and Matt Clement chip in?
Outlook – This feels like an organization going backwards, not forward. If the injury trio can contribute that could change quickly.
Houston Astros – 63-99
What Everyone is Asking – Is Miguel Tejada still an elite player?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is it time to deal Oswalt?
Outlook – A thin pitching staff, an offense long on names but short on ability and a bleak farm system make the Astros the worst organization in baseball at the moment.
Notes - Three, and maybe four teams could compete for the title in the Central. The Cubs are the best of the lot but by no means are they unstoppable. If the Brewers, Reds and yes Pirates can get some career years and a few breaks any of them could win the division. The Cardinals are scuffling and won’t go anywhere while the Astros are just awful. Oswalt’s declining K rate may be a sign that his time as an elite hurler nears an end.
NL West
Colorado Rockies – 93-69
What Everyone is Asking – Was 2007 a fluke?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – How will young hurlers like Morales and Jimenez fare in their first full seasons?
Outlook – It wasn’t a fluke. They led the NL in run differential and should be better than they were in 2007.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 90-72
What Everyone is Asking – How dominant will Haren/Webb be?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – What is decisive; the negative run differential or the expected improvement in young players?
Outlook – The D-Backs could conceivably play better but win fewer than they did in 2007. They should be neck and neck with the Rox throughout the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 85-77
What Everyone is Asking – How will Torre integrate the young players with the veterans?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is this the deepest pitching staff in the National League?
Outlook – The Dodgers should be competitive particularly behind a strong and deep pitching staff but they will come up a bit short in the end.
San Diego Padres – 83-79
What Everyone is Asking – Can the outfield get the job done?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Is the back of the rotation sufficient?
Outlook – A pitching staff given too much credit because of the park they play in will not get the job done enough to bring them to the post-season.
San Francisco Giants – 63-99
What Everyone is Asking – Where will the offense come from?
What Everyone Should Be Asking – Do fans want “clean” players or do they want winners?
Outlook – The Giants will be bad but a gifted pitching staff will keep this from being a complete disgrace.
Notes - This should be the most exciting division race in baseball. While the NL Central also features several teams capable of pulling out the title this division will do so at a higher caliber of baseball.
I’ll finish this preview with my predictions for the top three finishers for the Awards plus some other thoughts;
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, David Oritz
NL MVP – Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton
AL Cy Young – Scott Kazmir, Josh Beckett, Chien-Ming Wang
NL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson
AL Rookie of the Year – Evan Longoria, Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury
NL Rookie of the Year – Kosuke Fukudome, Franklin Morales, Jay Bruce
AL Manager of the Year – Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year – Bobby Cox
AL Player to Watch – Kevin Youkilis
NL Player to Watch – Adrian Gonzalez
AL Hitting Disappointment – Jim Thome
NL Hitting Disappointment – Carlos Delgado
AL Pitcher to Watch – Jeremy Bonderman
NL Pitcher to Watch – Jeff Francis
AL Pitching Disappointment – Andy Pettitte
NL Pitching Disappointment – Brett Myers
1 Comments:
At 12:17 PM,
mike_b1 said…
I keep forgetting Girardi is managing the Yankees and will probably mess them up good. He's probably worth five losses right there. I look forward to lots of first-inning sacrifice bunts by Jeter.
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