Expect the unexpected on draft day
If there’s one thing Pats fans have learned since Bill Belichick has taken over, it’s expect the unexpected on draft day. Between trades and the drafting of players unthinkable to all prognosticators, the Patriots have kept everyone guessing when it comes to the NFL Draft. During Belichick’s second draft, everyone expected the Pats to draft WR David Terrell from Michigan with the #6 overall pick. Instead, Belichick and Pioli drafted DE/DT Richard Seymour. Seymour became a Pro Bowl player, and David Terrell isn’t even in a starting lineup. Nobody expected the Pats to draft a guard in the first round in 2005, let alone Logan Mankins. He was voted to the Pro Bowl this past season. Draft experts have had the Pats drafting a linebacker or a corner in the first round the past few years, but they have yet to do so, despite the need.
This year could be different. The Pats haven’t had a pick as high in the first round as they have this year since 2001 when they drafted Seymour. Most say the Pats will try and trade back and accumulate more picks and try and get better value for players most feel they can get at later picks than #7. There are still mixed opinions as to whether there are any cornerbacks or linebackers that deserve a top 10 grade. CB Leodis McKelvin has been deemed by most as the top corner in the draft, though that doesn’t necessarily mean that he receives a top 10 grade. The only true linebacker that can possibly sniff the top 10 picks is Keith Rivers from USC, who projects as an ILB in the 3-4. Any other player that could play LB in the Pats’ 3-4 defense, such as Vernon Gholston or Chris Long, are linebacker/defensive end hybrids. The question remains: What exactly will the Pats do to try and get the best pick at the best value?
The possiblity remains that Belichick and Pioli pick the best player available at #7 regardless of the position the player plays. That could mean tackle, runningback, defensive tackle, or defensive end, which are not positions the Patriots are in dire need of. One thing the Pats have shown is that they are not afraid to pick “best player available” according to their draft board and have stayed away from drafting for need of the player doesn’t fit their value board. The Pats could also draft a player at a position of need but one that draft “experts” feel is a reach at that spot. The Patriots do not seem to tend to the conventional draft boards and have their own set of values for players. A corner such as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could be rated as the top corner on the Pats’ board but rated as a late-round pick on draftniks such as Mel Kiper’s board. Again, conventional wisdom says the Pats move back in the draft because they need more young players and could stockpile picks, there are no sure-fire top ten guys where they are picking, and they prefer to pay big guaranteed contracts to veterans over rookies. But this is the Patriots we’re talking about, right?
Do not dismiss the possibility of moving upin the draft to grab a prospect they feel is a can’t-miss prospect. Remember, expect the unexpected with the Patriots on draft day. It is highly possible that the Pats covet Vernon Gholston and/or Chris Long, two prospects that would be OLBs in the 3-4 and are projected to be impact players, but would not last past the Jets at #6. Moving up would not necessarily be very costly to the Patriots in terms of draft picks.
According to the draft value chart used by many NFL teams, the Patriots’ #7 overall pick is worth 1,500 points. The first trade partner possibility is the Oakland Raiders at pick #4. The Raiders recently traded for DeAngelo Hall and have franchised Nnamdi Asomugha. Combine that with the other free agent deals they have signed, they could be looking to move out of the #4 spot to save money. The Pats could trade their #7 overall pick and the fourth overall pick in the third round (consequentially originally the Raiders’ draft pick, worth 250 points) and come close enough to trade for the #4 overall pick, worth 1,800 points. Another trade partner could be the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have pick #5, one pick ahead of the Jets. If the Chiefs have their eyes on a tackle and Jake Lone is gone (a definite possibility), they could probably get the next best tackle (Ryan Clady from Boise State) by moving back. The #5 pick is worth 1,700 points. The Pats could trade the #7 overall pick and their second pick in the third round, #95 overall (worth 120 points), to the Chiefs to leapfrog the Jets and snag Long or Gholston.
While the above scenarios seem unlikely, they are no more unlikely than any other prediction considering the Patriots’ history of being unpredictable in the draft. If Belichick feels he can get a play-maker in his linebacking corps for years to come, what’s to stop him from trying to move up? Expect the unexpected on draft day from Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli.
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20 Responses to “Expect the unexpected on draft day”
March 29th, 2008 at 9:26 am
Yeah, they could definitely move up. A lot of people are saying that the higher picks have less value than they used making cost less than the chart says to move up.
The only way I see them doing it though is if they really have one player graded much higher than the rest. If there are 2 or 3 guys that they rate really high but still have similar grades, they will probably settle for whoever is left. Why pay more and trade picks for someone who is worth about the same to them, even if it isn’t at a position of need…
March 29th, 2008 at 11:00 am
They could do it, but my guess is if they do anything they will trade away the 7th pick to Dallas for their first pick and maybe their 2nd rd pick?
If they did move up to the 4th or 5th spot, which to me is more likely the 5th spot it would be to grab Gholston. This guy playing the opposite side of Adalius Thomas would, in my opinion be awesome and my gut feeling is that Bill knows this as well.
If we don’t move and stay with the 7th pick I seriously believe the Jets grab Gholston not because they have to have him but because the Jets would know if still there then we would draft him and Jets don’t want Gholston in NE.
I actually think the Cowboys will move up to the 4th spot so the Cowboys can get McFadden and if that happens we may move the the 5th spot because then more than likely the guy KC wants would still be there at number 7.
I don’t like the fat that we would draft a CB at 7 even though we need CB help because there has not been one true shutdown CB drafted in the top ten since Champ Bailey in 1999 and if the CB we draft is not a shutdown CB then don’t draft him at 7.
If it were my call, and we did move up I would try and move up to get Gholston.
March 29th, 2008 at 11:36 am
Screaming Eagles,
I think you are right about the KC pick and their target player being on the boards at 7.
I am not sure how the relationship is between Herm and Bill, but do think the Pats could move up to take Atlanta’s spot at No. 3 as Dimitroff is now in their front office.
I like Gholston and think the Jets would take him before the Pats could. But I would not be upset if the Pats took Sedrick Ellis at No. 7.
Otherwise there are no CBs or LBs worth taking at N0. 7, so maybe an offensive lineman in Ryan Clady. Although I have heard he is not a Pats type of player.
March 29th, 2008 at 11:40 am
I honestly don’t think gholston will be available at #5 because the raiders are going to take him. unless of course some sort of trade is worked out between dallas and oakland (which as a raider fan i would prefer).
screaming eagles is right (how it pains me to agree with a pats fan) solid cornerbacks can be found later in the first even early second round. hell the raiders got Asomugha with the 31st pick and he is the definition of a shutdown corner
March 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Look the Raiders just don’t trade down in the first round. EVER. Check the history doesn’t happen. Won’t happen, I guarantee it. Raiders take Dmac. Only because Chris Long is gone, and Gholston may or may not be on the Raiders radar. Even if Al thinks he can get Dmac later he’ll take him when he’s sure he has em. Best Athlete available hands down.
March 29th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I think that the Raiders will stay at four or trade for both of Dallas’ 1st rounders. Nobody who knows anything about the Raiders would even think that a #4 overall is equivallent to a #7 and a #77 (with the added picks at the end of round 2). Since the Pat’s cheated their way out of #31, I think that they will stay at #7 and draft a better camera man.
March 29th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
That guy is a beast, as a Patriots fan I would almost give up our 7th pick for him. Now that Markus Trufant has re-signed with Seattle I think the Patriots which are my team will go after Asomugha at the end of the year. However, since he was tagged he is going to go off this year to get the big money next year. However, I ws never a big Assante Samuel fan because he jumped too many routes so paying him the money he wanted for us would have been stupid. But Asomugha is well worth the money and the Raiders are going to have tough time keeping him next season, especially if they keep this years 4th rd pick. If I were the Raiders, I would trade my 4th pick to Dallas for their two first rd picks because you won’t poay as much for those two guys and then at the end of this year you will have a much better chance of re-signing Asomugha. If the Raiders do not do that, then you can expect NE to come calling. By the way…..it was an incomplete pass (:-D)
March 29th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Maverick - You’re just jealous that Pioli is a raving looney like you’re grandpa Al Davis…
March 29th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Most are talking about the Pats targeting Vernon Gholston, which does make the most sense. If he were a Patriot playing opposite fellow Ohio State alumni Mike Vrabel, it would be a bigtime pressure package. However, don’t discount the Pats grading Chris Long higher. He has excellent character, plays the run better than Gholston, and equaled him in total sacks last season. Long also played for Al Groh, a friend of Belichick’s from his days with the Jets. The Pats may not have visited with him simply because Bill can get all the info he needs about Long from Groh. Long probably won’t fall but you never know what can happen on draft day.
March 29th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I meant to say Pioli isn’t raving looney…
March 29th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
I expect the Raiders to trade out of the #4 pick. It makes sense cuz Nnamdi needs his long term deal and would lower the salary cap. I think we should trade out of the first round entirely to stock pile multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. I believe we could trade back and acquire atleast a later 1st, two 2nd’s, two 3rd’s. We could fill our depth chart out better this way because we have enough stars on both sides of the ball now. Well I could see us trying to get another potential star with the late first, maybe WR James Hardy, or Limas Sweed. I wouldn’t put off drafting OT/OG Branden Albert either as a late first rounder. This guy is a beast and could play guard or tackle in the NFL. He would be a great player in our system. It’s good that Chris Carr is gone, now John Bowie can get reps this year as a fourth corner. I wouldn’t trade Fabian Washington if we couldn’t get value for him this year.
March 29th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Fortunately, none of you are correct concerning my Cowboys and fortunately we don’t need to move up in the draft, we already have a starting RB who is a game changer. We don’t need a second one. Also, out of the 30 invites to Valley Ranch, McFaddin was not one of them - He is not invited and I am glad because he is way, way, way, way, way, over rated and certaintly not Emmit Smith or Adrian Peterson by no means.
Our goal will be to add a CB and WR in the first round (I hope), and then acquire a change of pace game changing RB in the second round and use him as a third down back. Our best option will be either Chris Johnson who ran a 4.24, runs over people, through people, around people, and does not just get separation,sep but get’s 15 to 20 yards distance from most defenders when he hits the gap. If he is not available, we will probably try for Jamaal Charles or Felix Jones if they are still on the board. Any of those backs will do us just fine. So, all of you other salivating teams can have Mendenhal, Turf Toe injured Stewart, and over rated McFaddin. Of course if you don’t want to spend a lot of money on such over rated high RB picks, you can get guys who play a lot like those. You can pick up Kevin Jones or Tyson Thompson, or even try to go get our former Julius Jones or his brother Thomas Jones, or heck, even Cedric Benson for much lower money with the same types of running styles and production. Get the picture?
March 30th, 2008 at 1:20 am
The author obviously doesn’t know Al Davis. He’ll require 3 first round draft picks, especially if McFadden is still available.
While a trade might make sense with the off-season spending spree, I can’t see any value at the #7 and a 3rd round positions. With Chris Long, Jake Long, Darren McFadden and Vernon Gholston being gone by #7, that’s a bit too optimistic for the Pats.
They’re better off trading with the Falcons, especially if Matt Ryan is off the board.
March 30th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Is this the same Al Davis that gave up Randy Moss for a 4th round pick? Or overpaid for Javon Walker and now Hall? Nnamdi still needs to be paid as well and has not signed the offer yet in hopes of getting a better deal. But happens now that Edwards is signed? Is this Nnamdi’s last year as a Raider?
The Raiders are much improved over last year and I am waiting to see how well the defense plays with all the new guys. If they take a defensive player it will be Gholston as a much needed pass rusher.
Offensively the raiders do not need a running back they need to improve their offensive line and should take Jake Long if he is there.
I think the Raiders would be better off to move down and grab some extra picks, but Al Davis just doesn’t seem to the best when it comes to trading players and picks.
Until it all comes together on the field the team will still be lucky to be 8-8. This is due mostly to issues with the team management, coaching and still a quality and consistent QB. Russel still has not proved himself and if he gets injured then what do the Raiders have?
March 30th, 2008 at 11:42 am
gholston will not be available at #6…he might not even be available at #2….he wont drop past the raiders
March 30th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Brent did a pretty good job summing up my feelings on Al Davis. Adding an additional late round pick to my trade scenario would make it fit exactly according to the trade value chart, but those high picks don’t carry the same value they once did. If Davis is desperate to trade out and the Pats offer the best collection of picks, he will pull the trigger. Brent’s “Randy Moss for a fourth round pick” is probably the best example of this.
March 30th, 2008 at 11:54 am
0tt0
Hence my trade scenarios IF the Pats covet Gholston or Long enough to move up.
March 30th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
this all about the best in the draft chris long sure look good in silver an black!!!!
March 30th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Randy no loss just needed out of oakland. Even if al got nothing the team would have been better off. straight cancer.
March 30th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
The Raiders need offensive line help! not another running back. Drafting McFadden at #4 is one thing,
signing him to a contract is another!!!!!!!!!!!!
(aka J. Russell). IMO, Raiders should draft Long or Gholston.
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