This has easily been the greatest basketball season since the 1992-‘93 season, when Michael Jordan was at the top of his dominance and many superstars were making serious bids to take his crown. This season gave us nine possible 50-win teams... in the West! It gave us the rebirth of the Celtics, the rejuvenation of a Lakers’ franchise, the emergence of the Hornets, the biggest trading season we have ever witnessed, and a 22-game winning streak that currently stands as the second greatest stretch of basketball in NBA history. Not only did we have a great season in the NBA, but we also had a very interesting and fun season in fantasy basketball. Let’s take a look back at some of the biggest moments, biggest surprises, biggest disappointments and all of the regular season hardware for this fantasy season.
BIGGEST DEBILITATING INJURY
Gilbert Arenas, PG, WAS - Make no mistake about it, this injury was the biggest blow to many fantasy teams this season. After just five games, Arenas was forced to have knee surgery to repair a nagging injury. Some might not consider “Agent Zero” one of the top point guards in the NBA, but when it comes to fantasy basketball, he was in prime position to overtake the top spot from the likes of Steve Nash and Jason Kidd. Arenas was already the top scorer in the NBA at the point guard position, shot decent percentages, hit a lot of three-pointers, had a guaranteed Top 15 spot in assists and would get his fair share of rebounds and steals going into this year. With expected regression from Nash and Kidd, “Agent Zero” was ready to go from #1 Blogger in the NBA to #1 point guard in fantasy basketball. Instead, Gilly did not come back until this past week. He is a major concern going into next season and will not have much of a chance at cracking the Top 5 in fantasy.
Runner-Up: Jermaine O’Neal, F/C, IND
THREE KEEPERS FOR NEXT YEAR
I am not going to sit here and tell you that you should hang on to Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul if you are in a keeper league – I would never insult your intelligence like that. But there are some young players who will have significant value next season and likely will not be around when you think you can steal them in your league’s draft. There is no secret about the following players’ abilities in fantasy, so you should grab onto them like Bruce Bowen grabs onto the man he’s defending – just don’t knee them in improper areas.
Jose Calderon, PG, TOR - The cat is out of the bag with this guy and he has officially become the next big point guard in fantasy basketball. Calderon may be the second coming of Steve Nash. He shoots over 50% from the field and 90% from the line. But where he really shines is in his assists to turnovers ratio. Calderon is averaging 8.3 assists per game and just 1.6 turnovers. Those are insane numbers and he is only going to get better with further experience.
Monta Ellis, G, GSW - Ellis was one of the most efficient scorers this season, averaging 20.2 points per game on 53.2% shooting. He has become one of the best mid-range shooters in the game and even gets 4.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. If he can keep his turnovers low next season and add a three-point shot to his repertoire, Ellis is going to guarantee himself another Top 40 spot in the fantasy rankings.
Andrew Bynum, C, LAL - Based on average, Andrew Bynum was the 32nd most valuable player in fantasy this year. He averaged a double-double, with 13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He also blocked 2.1 shots and shot (read: dunked) 63.6% from the field. His knee injury really killed his overall value, but it will not be a problem next season and Bynum should enter the Top 25 range in terms of value.
MY BEST PREDICTION
Danny Granger, G/F, IND - Picking Rudy Gay to emerge as a fantasy stud was a trendy pick going into this season, but not many people were expecting Danny Granger to be great after a disappointing showing most of last year. However, knowing that Granger would be in new head coach Jim O’Brien’s fast-paced system, I pegged him as one of the top third-year guys in the league. He came through, making me look like I know what I’m talking about, as well as giving me rights to be condescending with my friends. Whenever we find a young guy in any fantasy sport, and within a couple of years he becomes a valuable player, we like to mention the player as much as possible and tell each other, “You’re welcome.” So, whenever Danny Granger has come up this year, I have been able to reply, “By the way, you’re welcome for Granger.” It makes you look like a jerk, but it feels good to know that you were able to find a diamond in the rough before most people. If it sounds like I am patting myself on the back and being conceited… I am. But don’t worry, my ego is about to get deflated to a record low.
MY WORST PREDICTION
Chris Paul, PG, NOR - I really misfired on this one like Chuck Hayes at the free-throw line. It’s not that I didn’t think that Chris Paul was any good. It’s that I didn’t think he would have a valuable season due to an imminent and major injury that I was positive he would suffer. And I was almost right. He played on a sprained ankle for a couple of months, but instead of having it greatly affect his play, he actually ended up toughing his way through it and putting up historic numbers for a point guard of any era. He was basically the anti-Jermaine O’Neal. Thanks to his toughness, Paul ended up realizing most of his potential and turned out the #1 fantasy year for this season. I could have said that Michael Jackson isn’t creepy, and I would not have been more wrong about this prediction.
THE BIGGEST SURPRISE
Jamario Moon, SF, TOR - This guy literally came out of nowhere this season. Moon is a former Globetrotter of Harlem, and did not get to participate in the NBA until the age of 27. And he simply has worked his way from a tryout with the Toronto Raptors, to a spot in the rotation for Sam Mitchell, to being the 56th most valuable fantasy player. Moon never scored many points, but he did just about everything this year and often helped fantasy owners supplant poor performances by much more recognizable players.
THE BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Josh Smith, F, ATL - This may seem like a dumber comment than my preseason prediction about Chris Paul, but Josh Smith had a pretty disappointing year in fantasy basketball. There is simply no arguing this. People see solid stat lines every night and highlights of blocks and dunks on SportsCenter and assume that this guy is tearing opposing fantasy teams apart in head-to-head leagues. Nevertheless, that could not be a more incorrect assumption based on the legend of Josh Smith going into this season. Forget about Andrei Kirilenko – Josh Smith is the new [5x5] threat going into every game, and he should easily be a Top 10 fantasy player. The problem is that for someone who should be playing almost exclusively in the paint, Smith shoots just 45% from the field due to his affliction for wanting to be a jump shooter. He was supposed to add a three-point shot to his game this year, but has only hit 25 threes this season. Smith also shoots a decent percentage from the line (71%) and turns the ball over more than 3 times per game. This guy should be a must-have, but with 24 other players ranking ahead of him this year, I am failing to see what all the hype was about.
BIGGEST TRADE FOR FANTASY VALUE
Shaq to the Phoenix Suns - Shaquille O’Neal was a struggling, aging center who had become virtually un-ownable and was becoming a complete joke in terms of not just fantasy basketball but NBA basketball as well (in three of my leagues, I drafted him with the last pick of the draft). Thankfully for me and probably dozens of fantasy owners, Steve Kerr and the Phoenix Suns training staff decided to save Diesel from fantasy exile and made him worth having over Brian Skinner once again. Shaq’s scoring went down, but his numbers for the most part increased slightly across the board in almost all categories. The biggest difference though for Shaq was the fact that he was turned into a rebounding machine once again. He went from 7.8 rebounds per game for Miami to 10.6 rebounds per game in Phoenix. Centers need to rebound and block shots, and very few centers have done a better job since the Shaq trade than the Big Cactus himself. Thank you, Steve Kerr.
MOST OVERRATED FANTASY PLAYER
Dwight Howard, C, ORL - Before you stop reading this because you would rather watch his latest YouTube clip rather than read some crazy notion about Dwight Howard being overrated, look at the numbers. His scoring and rebounding are fantastic at 20.9 points and 14.4 rebounds per game. Throw in his 2.2 blocks per game and 59.9% from the field and you are probably looking at a Top 25 guy, right? Wrong. Dwight Howard is the 79th best fantasy player this year. 79! I figured that he would have to be more valuable because of his monster numbers, but the fact that he averages 3.2 turnovers per game, only 1.4 assists, under 1 steal (0.9), and shoots just 58.9% from the field, his value is often overstated from what it actually is. To put it into perspective – Mehmet Okur, Andres Biedrins, and Samuel Dalembert were all more valuable than Dwight Howard this season.
MOST UNDERRATED FANTASY PLAYER
Mike Dunleavy, G/F, IND - Jason Kidd, Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala, Gerald Wallace, and Joe Johnson. Those are all players who were ranked lower than Mike Dunleavy in fantasy basketball this year. The son of the Clippers coach happened to be one of the best fantasy players this season by averaging 18.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steal, and 2 three-pointers made per game. He flourished in new coach Jim O’Brien’s up-tempo system and often carried fantasy teams with great all-around play. Chances are that if your fantasy team lost to another one when you were almost positive you would win, Mike Dunleavy was going against you that week.
FANTASY POWERHOUSE TEAM
Atlanta Hawks - Trust me, it surprised the hell out of me too. But with Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, and Mike Bibby all in the Top 100, the Hawks had one more player on that list than the Lakers, Suns, Warriors, Nuggets, and Jazz. If Acie Law IV can become an extremely valuable fantasy basketball point guard off the bench next year, this team will be the one that you want to pillage the most in your draft next fall.
WORST FANTASY VALUE TEAM
Minnesota Timberwolves - If you have read my stuff on TalkHoops.net, then you know how much I dislike Kevin McHale for dismantling my favorite team. Well, he has also killed any fantasy value that the Timberwolves could have had. After trading Kevin Garnett in a move to get people to not come to games, he turned a probable 40-win team into a pathetic 21-win team with no players worth owning other than Al Jefferson, who was their only player in the Top 100 fantasy players.
BEST COACH ADDITION FOR FANTASY
Jim O’Brien, Indiana Pacers - Jim O’Brien took a stagnant, slower than molasses offense and took the reigns off, allowing them to run the floor and take questionable shots. He let the Pacers go from the Heat of the late-90’s to the Warriors of the East. The Pacers averaged well over 100 points per game this year and we saw the games of Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy (both mentioned earlier) flourish under the new system. I would like to thank Jim O’Brien for letting them play and not boring fans and fantasy owners with a terrible offense.
FANTASY ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
Jamario Moon, SF, TOR - He was the top rated fantasy rookie this year, beating out both Kevin Durant and Al Horford this season. Moon only averaged 8.7 points per game, but he did grab 6.2 rebounds, stole the ball once per game, blocked 1.4 shots, turned the ball over only 0.7 times per game, and shot 49.1% from the field and 74.1% from the foul line. Moon gave fantasy owners a much more well-rounded attack this year than Durant or Horford.
MOST IMPROVED FANTASY PLAYER
Caron Butler, SF, WAS - Over the past five years, Caron Butler was, on average, the 24th best player in fantasy basketball. This season, Butler posted averages of 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.1 three-pointers made, 46.6% from the field and 90.1% from the line – all career-highs except in rebounding. That is the reason for why Butler went from an average of 24th best to being the 6th best fantasy player this year. To put it in perspective – Butler was better than LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, and Baron Davis.
FANTASY DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Marcus Camby, C, DEN - Camby, for the second straight year, played in a lot of games and played better defense by numbers than just about anybody. His 1.1 steals per game were No. 3 amongst centers (behind Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace), and his 3.6 blocks per game were by far the best in the NBA. To date, Camby has played in 77 games this season, which happens to be a career-high. Nobody can come close to that steals/blocks combo this year.
FANTASY MVP AWARD
Chris Paul, PG, NOR - Chris Paul has only blocked 3 shots this year, but that is where his faults begin and end in fantasy basketball. He is averaging 21.1 points per game and 11.6 points per game. The last player to do that was Magic Johnson, and he turned out to be pretty good. Paul leads the league with a ridiculous 2.7 steals per game. He is shooting 48.5% from the field and 85.1% from the line, while making 1.1 threes per game. And Paul is grabbing a solid 4.0 rebounds per game. He is legitimately ranked as the #1 player in fantasy basketball this season, and wins our Fantasy MVP Award for ’07-‘08.
Check out more commentary and analysis from Zach Harper at TalkHoops.net. |
