BREAKING DOWN THE BREWERS BLOG - by Kevin Panzarella: LACK OF HR TOTALS IN THE BREWERS LINEUP

Thursday, April 17, 2008

LACK OF HR TOTALS IN THE BREWERS LINEUP

Last year,

            • Corey Hart hit a home run every 24th plate appearance
            • JJ Hardy hit a home run every 25th plate appearance
            • Prince Fielder hit a home run every 14th plate appearance
Combined, the trio has ZERO home runs in a total of 169 plate appearances between them. By last year's averages, Prince should have 4 hr's right now, Hart and Hardy should both have 2 apiece.

But the thing is, those figures are only averages based on last year's numbers. Sure they are off to slow starts, but HR's come in bunches. If Hart blasts a couple this weekend, he'll be right on pace, it's that simple.

Prince is off pace the most, but that is because he was on such a torrid hitting spree last year. 50 home runs is unrealistic to expect out of anyone in one season, let alone to do it 2 seasons in a row.

Did you know that not even Barry Bonds has hit 50 or more home runs twice in his entire career? He did it once when he hit 73, but never cracked 50 even once before or after that season. Also, only 25 players have EVER hit 50 home runs in a season.

Not to mention, that list was ridiculously imploded in the steroid era. 11 players did it from 1920 (basically when the home run era began with Ruth) all the way until 1994, and then the other 14 did it from 1995 through 2008.

So it took 74 years for 11 players to do it, and then only 13 years for the next 14 to do it. WOW. Sure there are the arguments that black people didn't get to play from the outset, and people in general have gotten stronger over the years, and the mound was higher for a period of time. But, these numbers are too insane to not think steroids dominated the past 13 years.

Sorry I got a bit off point, but those home run numbers amaze me. The point is, it's never been easy to hit 50 home runs in a year, let alone twice in 2 seasons. Even in the steroid era, only McGwire, Sosa, and Arod did it consecutively. Not to mention that no one has every accused Prince of being on steroids, so he doesn't have that goin for him.

Prince will have a multi-homer game one of these days because they come in bunches when players are on hot streaks. He's too good of a hitter to not come around one of these days, so wait patiently. It's a long season.

So what is a good cutoff point? For me, 35 big dogs is a lot more realistic to expect. If Prince hits 35, we should be happy, if he exceeds that we should be amazed. Anything under 35, we should be a little disappointed.


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