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Aug 22

Picking True #1 WRs

Posted by [Eric Jay] - 755 reads, (11) Shouts

Wide receivers. These are the guys who give fantasy managers more headaches than any other position. You know how it goes. One week your WR2 grabs 3 balls for 40 yds, while that scrub on your bench catches 4 balls for 110 yds and one long TD. So you switch them next week and the scrub goes 3-25, while your WR2 who you were cursing last week is putting up 7-60 and a TD on your bench. What you want is a WR who will get at least 5 catches a game and always top 50 yds and hopefully the century mark on a weekly basis, plus a red-zone look a game.

So it begins -- the great search for consistency. The best way to find that consistency and eliminate those headaches is to grab true #1 WRs on their own teams. There are only 32 out there in a perfect world, but with teams like Oakland and Tennessee around, the list of true-impact #1 WRs are much more limited. Just like I did in my previous blog post: http://www.screamingsports.com/en/profile/profile_readblog.aspx?b=2526 in which I broke down all 32 teams' running back situations, I have detailed all 32 teams' wide receiver situations below. The teams that have a star next to them are the teams that I believe possess a true #1 WR who will get 5+ catches and put up some fairly solid numbers week-to-week. The teams with two WRs listed are guys you can also take who will put up numbers like WR1s because they play for such good offenses.

Upon further breakdown, there are only 20 teams that possess true #1 WRs. Among the 12 teams without a star, only Detroit and New England have desirable options. They have so many good options that I don't see any one WR putting up big numbers. There are others that you can gamble on like Atlanta, Chicago and SF, who I didn't list as having a big #1 because I'm concerned the poor QB play won't allow for big numbers. Then there are the rest of the teams, which I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole (Jac, KC, Min, Ten, etc.)

So the stars show just 23 big-producing guys, and maybe a few sleepers I left off (Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, etc.) Looking at the big picture heading into a draft with 12 teams, you'll notice that there are only about 2 of these guys for each fantasy team. Keep that in mind, and try to grab 3. You'll have much fewer headaches starting Braylon Edwards, a true #1 WR on his own team, rather than starting Greg Jennings, a clear-cut #2 WR on his own team.

Here is the breakdown:

*Ari - Fitzgerald, Boldin
Atl - Horn
Bal - M. Clayton
*Buf - L. Evans
*Car - S. Smith
Chi - Berrian
*Cin - C. Johnson, Houshmandzadeh
*Cle - B. Edwards
*Dal - Owens
*Den - Walker
Det - Roy Williams
*GB - Driver
*Hou - A. Johnson
*Ind - Harrison, Wayne
Jac - M. Jones
KC - Kennison
Mia - Chambers
Min - Williamson
NE - Moss
*NO - Colston
*NYG - Burress
*NYJ - L. Coles
Oak - Curry
*Phi - R. Brown
*Pit - Ward
*SD - V. Jackson
SF - D. Jackson
*Sea - Branch
*Stl - Holt
*TB - Galloway
Ten - B. Jones
*Was - S. Moss

Draft accordingly.


Draft, Fantasy, Football, NFL, strategy, Wide Receiver, WR,


         
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11 Shouts

Posted by

thmackin

8/22/2007 1:36:00 AM

Beautiful, 100% awesome, and I'm glad to see some missing names of fantasy players who are being overvalued, like Kevin Curtis (who couldn't get it done under Martz) and Calvin Johnson (who won't get it done (this season) under Martz).

Posted by

LCJS

8/22/2007 2:04:00 AM

Well done once again.

Posted by

Statistocrat

8/22/2007 8:28:00 AM

I love the blog...disagree with the order...mine would be something like this... WIDE RECEIVERS Bye 1 Owens, DAL 8 2 Holt, STL 9 3 Wayne, IND 6 4 Johnson, CIN 5 5 Smith, CAR 7 6 Driver, GNB 7 7 Walker, DEN 6 8 Fitzgerald, ARI 8 9 Colston, NOR 4 10 Williams, DET 6 11 Evans, BUF 6 12 Harrison, IND 6 13 Johnson, HOU 10 14 Moss, NWE 10 15 Burress, NYG 9 16 Jackson, SFO 6 17 Houshmandzadeh 5 18 Boldin, ARI 8 19 Jackson, SDG 7 20 Coles, NYJ 10 21 Brown, PHI 5 22 Ward, PIT 6 23 Branch, SEA 8 24 Edwards, CLE 7 25 Cotchery, NYJ 10 26 Clayton, BAL 8 27 Galloway, TAM 10 28 Moss, WAS 4 29 Jones, JAC 4 30 Stallworth, NWE 10 31 Berrian, CHI 9 32 Chambers, MIA 9 33 Glenn, DAL 8 34 Hackett, SEA 8 35 Jennings, GNB 7 36 Curtis, PHI 5 37 Porter, OAK 5 38 Jones, TEN 4 39 Johnson, DET 6 40 Holmes, PIT 6 41 Marshall, DEN 6 42 Kennison, KAN 8 43 Jenkins, ATL 8 44 Henderson, NOR 4 45 Bruce, STL 9 46 Curry, OAK 5 47 Muhammad, CHI 9 48 Bennett, STL 9 49 Gonzalez, IND 6 50 Bowe, KAN 8 51 ***, MIA 9 52 Horn, ATL 8 53 Williamson, MIN 5 54 Crayton, DAL 8 55 Mason, BAL 8 56 Jurevicius, CLE 7 57 Jarrett, CAR 7 58 Johnson, ARI 8 59 Stokley, DEN 6 60 Battle, SFO 6

Posted by

Statistocrat

8/22/2007 8:28:00 AM

above reads the position, the player name, and then the bye week

Posted by

Statistocrat

8/22/2007 8:29:00 AM

sorry, just realized your blog was listing by team, not order...

Posted by

Statistocrat

8/22/2007 8:34:00 AM

With all that said, I would never pick a WR before RD 3, I have found GREAT success going RB, RB, RB/QB, QB/RB, WR, WR,WR,TE, WR, RB, WR, QB, D/ST, K..

Posted by

AC

8/22/2007 11:32:00 AM

Nice blog ur probably going to do kickers next

Posted by

thrilla

8/22/2007 12:18:00 PM

Great read, awesome post. This is soo true, its goota be the most frustrating thing week to week figuring out which WR to start, alot goes into that decision. Of course with top tier guys like the guys u have listed with stars its a no brainer, its when u got guys on your bench like B Jones and Tennesse is playing the worst pass defense is the part that takes the finesse and know how to start that WR over a higher caliber one. Great read

Posted by

Eric Jay

8/23/2007 1:53:00 AM

Thanks for the feedback. I used both of my past blog posts (RB and WR) to create a strategy that worked well in a draft today. In a 12-team league, in the first six rounds I took: Gore, Harrison, Holt, Cadillac, B. Edwards, and A. Green. Passed up on the run-of-the-mill QBs for 3 starting RBs in no RBBC and 3 true #1 WRs.

Posted by

Gemini

9/2/2007 12:33:00 PM

Great blog, with the exception of Roy Williams. I think Williams will flourish under Martz.

Posted by

dds

9/27/2007 9:27:00 PM

very nice.

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After dominating my dad in fantasy sports when I was 10, it's been in my blood ever since. Need a question answered about fantasy baseball or football...

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