AccuScore - MLB Trade Market

MLB Trade Market

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Around the end of July in the 2006 season I had given up on one of my fantasy baseball teams. I was a long shot to make the playoffs in my head to head league, and since this was a keeper league, I figured my best bet would be to give up early on the 2006 season, and focus on the 2007 season. I decided to trade Derek Jeter, Austin Kearns, and Kevin Youkilis for two promising prospects. Unfortunately the deal was vetoed by the league, and I had to take on Geoff Jenkins with the two prospects I received.

The names of those two prospects? Hanley Ramirez and Prince Fielder. Let’s just say the 2007 season was dominated by my team, thanks mostly to that trade.

That’s what I love about keeper leagues. This time of the year your league probably consists of one or two teams who are a lock for the playoffs, about five teams in the hunt for the playoffs, and the remainder of the league has most likely forgotten that they were in this league to begin with.

You’re going to have a hard time trading with the teams at the top. They’re at the top because they have talent, but they are not likely to trade that talent away. If you’re one of the teams in the playoff hunt you are going to have a hard time trading with the other teams. What is their incentive to make a good deal that will help your team fill its needs? It would also be impossible to trade with the bottom teams, as the only trade offers they are fielding are for running backs in their new fantasy football leagues.

A keeper league removes this problem. Now the teams at the bottom have an incentive to make trades. Their season is finished, but they can still compete for next season. If you happen to be one of those teams at the bottom, then let’s take a look at some of the guys you should be going after if you want to win next season.

Batters

Chris Davis (1B, TEX) – Davis has seen his average drop to .259, but has hit 11 homers in 170 at bats. He put up a .302 average in the minors, including a .333 average this year at both AA and AAA. At worst he could be another Carlos Pena. With power numbers like he has, you have to take a chance that his average will bounce back.

Ian Stewart (2B, 3B, COL) – Stewart has eight homers and a .286 average in 147 at bats for Colorado. He’s eligible at second and third base, and will most likely be a regular starter next season with the potential departure of either Garrett Atkins or Matt Holliday from Colorado. He’s in a bit of a slump lately, with a .238 average in the last two weeks, but you don’t need him this year, so trade away.

Chase Headley (3B, SD) – So far he’s hit a homer once every 23.75 at bats, which translates in to about 25 homers a season. Headley is only batting .263 for the season, but has taken off recently, with a .341 average in the last two weeks. Headley hit .305 at AAA, and I am confident in his ability to hit close to .300 in the majors.

Evan Longoria (3B, TB) – This one is obvious, but sometimes injuries can provide great keeper trade potential. If the owner of Longoria is in the playoff chase, he could be looking for help. I would check to see if he wants to trade Longoria, sacrificing his future to win this season.

Alexei Ramirez (2B, SS, OF, CHW) – Ramirez had a rough start to the season, batting .138 in 29 at bats in April with no homers, no steals, one run and two RBIs. From May until the present time, Ramirez has been a monster, batting .328 with 11 homers, nine steals, 42 runs, and 41 RBIs. Right now the only shortstops to have more homers and steals than him are Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes.

Corey Hart (OF, MIL) – Since the end of April, Hart has hit .281 with 17 homers and 18 steals. Hanley Ramirez is the only player with more steals, more homers, and a better average. Grady Sizemore is the only other player with more homers and stolen bases, although Ian Kinsler has just as many homers, and more steals, and Brandon Phillips has more homers, but just as many steals. That’s great company he is with, but he is going to cost a lot less than any of those other guys.

Matt Kemp (OF, LAD) – Since the end of May, Kemp has hit .298 with 11 homers, and 18 steals. With his recent power surge, I believe he could be a .300/25/40 player as early as next season. He has been hitting a home run once every 24 at bats over this stretch, which translates in to 25 homers a season, and has 28 stolen bases on the season already. Like Hart, he is an elite outfield talent that comes at a discount price.

Adam Lind (OF, TOR) – Since getting the call in mid-June, Lind has hit .329 with eight homers in 167 at bats. That’s a pace of one homer every 20.87 at bats, which is 30 home run power. Lind hit 11 homers in 290 at bats last season, so this power surge is no surprise.

Pitchers

Manny Parra (SP, MIL) – He has struggled over the last month, with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. I credit this to a career high in innings. Parra has never pitched more than 138.2 innings in a single season, and is currently sitting at 137.2 innings for the 2008 season. Despite the recent struggles, only six pitchers have recorded more strikeouts over the last month, and only Dan Haren and Javier Vazquez have issued more walks, giving an indication as to how good Parra’s control is.

John Danks (SP, CHW) – Danks has finally seen his breakout season, with a 3.11 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, ten wins, and 126 strikeouts in 150.1 innings. He plays for a contending team, which means his win numbers should be consistent from year to year. He’s a starter that can help you in all four starting categories, and at 23 years old, he has a lot of room for improvement.

Zach Greinke (SP, KC) – Greinke ranks in the top 20 in strikeouts this season, and has nine wins with the Royals. He’s only 24 years old, and if he can put up nine wins with the Royals, that tells you he is a talented pitcher.

Jeremy Guthrie (SP, BAL) – I normally go for starting pitchers with high strikeout numbers. Guthrie has 106 strikeouts in 170 innings pitched, but I give him credit here because he posts excellent ratios, with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The only pitchers to go more innings, with a lower ERA and WHIP are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Cliff Lee.

Paul Maholm (SP, PIT) – Since the end of May, Maholm has pitched fewer than seven innings in just four of his 13 starts, and hasn’t pitched fewer than six innings. He has only allowed more than three earned runs in three of those 13 starts. Over that stretch he has posted a 2.91 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, a 63:19 K:BB ratio, and five wins in 92.2 innings pitched.

Brandon Morrow (SP, SEA) – Morrow is being transformed in to a starting pitcher, much like Joba Chamberlain. He should be back up later this season, and is a solid starting option next season. Morrow posted a 1.47 ERA, an 0.90 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 36.2 innings pitched as a reliever with the Mariners this season.

Jonathan Sanchez (SP, SF) – He’s on the DL right now, so he could come cheap when you combine the injury with his recent struggles. Sanchez has seen a slide in the last five games, posting a 7.13 ERA in 24 innings. However, before that he had a 3.97 ERA in 111 innings, with 115 strikeouts. For comparison’s sake, Tim Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA with 150 strikeouts in 146.1 innings last season. Maybe he won’t be like Lincecum this season, but the talent is there for Sanchez to be a great fantasy pitcher.

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twilliams said:

Justin,

Last year in the final three months, Teixeira hit .310 with 18 homers and 64 RBIs. Howard had a monster finish, with a .280 average, 28 homers, and 79 RBIs. The question you have to ask is, was that a fluke by Howard? He hit 19 homers in the first three months, only to take off in the second half.

Looking at the 2006 numbers, Howard hit an amazing 31 homers and 80 RBIs in the final three months of the season, and hit for a .340 average over that stretch. That year he hit 27 homers in the first three months.

There's something about Howard, most likely the warmer weather, that makes him heat up (no pun intended) in the final three months of the season. Howard's average should come around again in the second half, and he won't cost you too much from Teixeira. However, you're adding a lot of homers and RBIs by going with Howard over Teixeira. My guess is that Howard will get you at least 10 more homers and 15-20 more RBIs, with a 20 point drop in batting average from Teixeira.

July 08, 2008

Justin said:

Tim, I've been recieving trade offers that would give me Ryan Howard for Mark Teixeira. Tex has been a little disappointing this season but I know he is a second half hitter. Likewise Howard's average is equally disappointing but his other numbers are great.

I guess what I'm asking is who as more upside and overall value?

In my H2H league, I'm middle of the road for avg, top 3 in rbi, and bottom 3 in hr.

July 07, 2008

tyson said:

will mark teixeira get traded? and who would they get

July 03, 2008

twilliams said:

Braun is by far the best player in that deal. If you've got the offer, I would take it. In the last two years Braun has hit a homer once every 14.42 at bats. To put that in perspective, A-Rod has averaged a homer once every 14.22 at bats in his career.

Braun's slow start to the season may have raised questions with some people, but he has come on strong with 17 homers in the last two months. Braun and a waiver wire outfielder would be far more valuable than Beltran and Bradley.

June 30, 2008

Somesh Patel Singh said:

New bestfriend faraz? lol

June 29, 2008

yourintheclub101 said:

milton bradley and carlos beltran for ryan braun?

June 29, 2008

yourintheclub101 said:

tim...youre a life saver!! smilies/grin.gif

Thanks for the help Tim!!!!

June 24, 2008

twilliams said:

McLouth has been receiving regular playing time since August of last season. Since that point he has received 464 at bats, and in those at bats he has hit for a .289 average with 94 runs, 25 homers, 78 RBIs, and 25 steals. Simply put, McLouth is not a fluke.

That being said, you aren't going to get any kind of upgrade going with one over the other in this trade. AccuScore has McLouth batting .280 with 15 homers and 14 steals over the remainder of the season. Beltran is batting .286 with 15 homers and 12 steals. If this is a keeper league, I would stick with McLouth. If this is a single year league, Beltran may hold slightly more value simply because of the uncertainty that surrounds McLouth, and the name value that comes from Beltran.

I actually made this swap earlier in the year in a single year league, mainly due to the extra trade value Beltran's name value gives him. However, I have McLouth in a few keeper leagues and it would take more than Beltran for me to part with him there.

June 24, 2008

CouldntDoItWithoutMe said:

Hi Tim, I was hoping you could help me out with a trade. I would be trading away Nate Mclouth of the Pirates and be recieving Carlos Beltran. I know this is Nate's first season putting up these stats, and Beltran has more successfull seasons under his belt than Nate. But Nate's stuff could be for real too, he doesnt HAVE to cool down, you know what I mean? If you could help me out with it it'd be great!

June 24, 2008

twilliams said:

Actually, at the time of the trade, all of the news was that Furcal would be back June 17th. When this article was written, Furcal was expected to be back June 17th. It was only one day after this article was published that it was announced Furcal had a set-back and would be out for a much longer amount of time. Thus, your reasoning on the Beckett/Furcal swap would be true now, but was not true at the time of the veto, or of the time of this writing.

Therefore, with the knowledge that it would be Beckett for a Furcal that would be returning soon, I stand correct in saying that this deal should have never been vetoed. I agree, if it was Beckett for a Furcal that was returning in a month, it is worth a veto, but that's not the case. By your logic I can look back and say that an Alfonso Soriano for Dan Uggla trade made last week should have been vetoed because it was found out a week after the trade that Soriano suffered an injury and would miss six weeks.

June 12, 2008

xeifrank said:

Furcal is not coming back next week. You are way way way off on that one. Furcal is expected back in a best case scenario by the all-star break, but it I wouldn't hold out hope for the best case scenario on this injury. I would most likely veto this trade too. Beckett is worth more than a very injured Rafael Furcal. That's it right there, there should be no reason to look at the other possible veto explanations. What you need to do is offer more than Furcal. Instead of complaining about the veto process, why not sweeten the deal a little bit. If I am the 2nd, 3rd or 4th place team, I don't want to see the first place team get better by an uneven trade. In fact, when you are in first place, you should expect other teams to veto your trade. It comes with the territory. As an owner who works hard in the draft, studying players, looking for value and building a balanced team that is solid in all categories, I want the other owners punished for failing to draft enough starting pitching, relief pitching or players who can steal bases. If they are then able to make lopsided trades later in the season to fill these holes, it lessens all the work I did in the draft. I am always suspicious of trades, especially when it involves the first or second place team. You are the first place team, and your trade is not fair, thus the veto. Live with it, or sweeten the deal.

vr, Xeifrank

June 12, 2008

twilliams said:

I would say that I am an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going, although I'm not sure if I qualify since I get paid for it. Besides, who doesn't check to see when their starters are going? Either you don't play fantasy baseball, or you are the guy who drafts his team, then checks back in August to see how things are going.

Your comment would make sense if I was saying that it makes sense because the two players were providing the same amount of production as Wang...does that make sense? It wouldn't be beneficial to get similar production from two roster spots, rather than one. however, I project I will be adding an additional 10 wins and 150 Ks, which is better than I could find on the waiver wire in this particular league. So to recap, I traded Wang, and in return I got Wang's numbers, plus 10 wins and 150 Ks. I think that is worthy of an extra roster spot.

April 21, 2008

bgold1212 said:

You end up with 150 more strike outs from the combo. Too bad its a combo and they take up 2 roster spots. Or else your reasoning would make sense. It's not like your going to leave a spot blank when you have Wang. Unless you are an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going to start and adjusts his roster to that.

April 21, 2008

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