| MLB Waiver Wire Wonders |
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Playing fantasy baseball in a league with daily lineup changes can be grueling. It’s kind of like being stuck in the desert with no water. The season drags on forever, and after awhile you kind of go a little crazy. It makes sense to drop Matt Garza or Justin Duchscherer after a few bad outings. It also makes sense to rush after a guy like Chris Volstad, based on one good outing in the midst of a few bad outings by Garza and Duchscherer. Unfortunately the long fantasy baseball season can produce a lot of mirages, and the owners who make the playoffs or win their leagues are the guys who can recognize a mirage for what it is, and either keep their struggling stars, or snatch up a guy recently cut loose. It’s hard for me to say who is available in your league, because every league is different. Justin Duchscherer was dropped in one of my leagues a few weeks ago by an owner who was panicking both over his recent performance, and over getting close to the season innings limit. But Duchscherer is not available in every league. At the same time, some of the guys I mention below might not be available in your league. Or if you play in a shallow league, it might not be worth it to drop a guy like the struggling Pat Burrell for the red hot Jim Edmonds. However, I do know that the guys below are putting up some solid numbers lately, and they are available in most leagues, so if you truly need help in a category, don’t worry as these are not mirages. Batters Jim Edmonds – Since joining the Cubs, Edmonds has hit .275 with 15 homers in just 182 at bats. He hit five homers with a .300 average in the last two weeks. It amazes me that he is not owned in more leagues. Ian Stewart – Stewart has been getting regular playing time, and has posted a .287 average with seven homers. His average is mainly a product of hitting .432 in July, but he has shown some decent power for a guy eligible at second base, hitting seven homers in just 132 at bats. As would be expected, five of his homers have come at Coors, with two coming away from the park. Andre Ethier – It doesn’t seem as if the Manny trade has cut in to Ethier’s playing time. In the last two weeks Ethier has hit .324. He has started eight of the last ten games for the Dodgers, giving him some value in NL only and deeper mixed leagues. Chase Headley – Headley has recorded a hit in 10 of 12 games this month, posting a .350 average over that stretch. He also has hit eight homers in 179 at bats, about one every 22 plate appearances. It looks like his hitting may finally be coming around, which makes him a valuable play, both this year and as a keeper for next season. Daniel Murphy – In just 34 at bats, Murphy has hit two homers with a .441 average. He’s playing way over his head right now, but that’s not to say he isn’t talented. Murphy is a great option in NL only leagues, or if you are desperate for hitting in deeper mixed leagues. Jed Lowrie – Lowrie doesn’t post much as far as power numbers go, with just one homer in 126 at bats. However, he is a great hitter, with a .310 average, and is eligible at second, short, and third. That holds some value in deeper leagues where you need some lineup flexibility. Cesar Izturis – Izturis is a solid stolen base threat on the waiver wire. In the last two weeks he has six steals with a .419 average. He has 16 steals on the season, but has been receiving more playing time lately, and is making the most of it. Jody Gerut – In the last month, Gerut has hit .313 with eight homers in 83 at bats. Gerut hasn’t received regular playing time since the 2004 season. However, he hit 33 homers combined in his first two seasons, indicating that his power may be legit this season. Pitchers Joe Blanton – Since being traded to the Phillies, Blanton has seen a slight value increase, with a 4.00 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 27 innings. However, in the month of August he has posted a 2.37 ERA in three starts, with 18 strikeouts in 19 innings, which could point to his return as a solid fantasy starting option. Clayton Kershaw – Against the Phillies in his last start, Kershaw went six innings, allowing three runs, six hits, two walks, and striking out eight. If that is a bad outing from the new and improved Kershaw, then I’ll gladly take it. Paul Maholm – Since the start of July, Maholm has recorded only two starts where he went fewer than seven innings and allowed more than two runs. Those were at Chicago, where he gave up five runs in six innings, and at Colorado, where he also gave up five in six innings. He has struck out 48 batters in 58 innings over this stretch. Paul Byrd – Byrd gets a huge value boost going to the Red Sox. In his last four starts, Byrd has gone 29 innings, allowing just four earned runs, and recording wins in all four outings. Imagine what he can do on a Boston team that is considerably better than the 2008 Indians. Andy Sonnanstine – Sonnanstine has posted a 2.33 ERA in three starts this month, striking out 16 batters in 19.1 innings. He slipped a bit in July, after posting a 3.82 ERA in June, but it looks like he could be back on track, as the strikeout numbers have returned. Brian Moehler – Moehler has allowed more than three runs in just four of his 17 starts since becoming a starter in May. He has gone less than five innings just twice in that stretch. With the Astros on a recent hot streak, he sees a value increase, with four wins in his last six starts. Kevin Slowey – I’ve been a big fan of Slowey for most of this season, and it’s no secret why. He has a 1.08 WHIP in 114.1 innings, 79 strikeouts during that span, and nine wins. In the last month he has posted a 3.09 ERA and an 0.97 WHIP with three wins and 18 strikeouts in 32 innings. Trackback(0)
Comments (29)
smoking gun
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hey tim, the playoffs are about to start in my league, and i need a boost for my inconsistent offense. i have a good load of pitchers, so i was offered this trade- i give scott kazmir and tim lincecum and recieve aubrey huff, felix hernandez, and nate mclouth. i was also offered another trade in which i would be giving dan haren and josh beckett for matt holliday. are any of these trades worth it? thanks |
Kyle Ritz the one and only.
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Yo, waz crakkin nd/or poppin Timmy -upside down M- hOw do yUu seE my dawwG cARLos BELLtRAN FinisHINg uP Da SeAZZON?? BelTRan or CurtiZ GranderSON? Whoo BeTTA? |
Beat the living Pujols out of them!
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Hi Tim, how do you see Scott Kazmir and Jeff Francis finishing the season...Jeff Francis, is he a legit clutch pick? |
smoking gun
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hey tim, ive got a trade for you, aramis ramirez and manny ramirez for magglio ordonez. i have garrett atkins for backup, and aramis goes into deep slumps, while atkins has been heating up. what do you think? |
twilliams
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Halladay, I don't know why you would have to include Manny if you're trading Johan for Holliday. And if you do have to include Manny, I'd want something else back in return, since the difference between Holliday and Johan is slim. |
twilliams
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Smoking Gun, In the trade, I like the Kazmir side, assuming you need pitching help. You might be able to get someone else back in the deal, since that person will have to drop someone anyways. As for Bay/Atkins, I generally go for positional scarcity, so Atkins would be my pick. This is assuming you don't have another third baseman, and assuming you don't start five outfielders. In either of those cases I like Bay better. |
twilliams
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Pujols, To answer your first question, with the recent trade of Rauch, the best bets for saves are Street (short term) or Torres/Gregg (Long Term). There's the possibility Street gets traded, so I would go with Torres/Gregg, although it looks like there's no urgency to snap up closers. As for the second question, I'd do McLouth/Sheets for Holliday. In a shallow league all that matters is who got the best player, and filling your starting lineup needs. Sheets carries an injury history, and you're pretty set with pitching. Holliday is a clear upgrade over McLouth. |
halladay511
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hey tim, need some help...johan and manny for holliday? what do you think? |
Kick Their Pujols
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TIM!!!!!!!!! Need BIG help on a trade. I'm giving away Nate Mclouth and Ben Sheets and receiving Matt Holliday. Its a non keeper league and my outfielders are ryan braun, carlos lee, and vlad guerrero and utility is either aubry huff or curtis granderson. My starters are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. of course ben sheets would be gone if i traded. One do you think this is a good and productive trade for me, and two do you think it would be better if i gave felix hernandez, or no one instead? Thanks! |
smoking gun
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one more question tim. in a non keeper league, would you rather have jason bay or garrett atkins? |
smoking gun
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hi tim. what do you think of this trade -> scott kazmir for nate mclouth and granderson. the team with kazmir needs some rbis and runs. thanks |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi Tim, I have an open roster spot and i wanna fill it with a productive player and not really a waiver wire pickup. I have a lotta confidence in my batting and my batting is doing real well, so i wanna fill it with a picther spot. my starting pitchers are felix hernandez, cc sabathia, ben sheets, roy holladay, eric bedard (d.l.), jake peavy, and john danks. my relief pitchers are brad lidge, joe nathan, and fransico cordero. I dont think i need a starter more than a relief guy or vice versa, so im just looking for the best pitcher to get me the most points. I asked you previously for starting pitching help, and i signed danks, but i dont like tim hudson. Burnett, Cain, and Gavin Floyd are unconsistant and confusing, so im gonna ask for relief help. Who's best...J. Rauch, K. Gregg, H. Street, Balfour, S. Torres, B. Fuentes, B. Wilson, or Todd Jones. It's a lotta people again, sorry, Thanks a lot! |
Kick Their Pujols
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To Jon Lee...its a non keeper 6 team league ...one of every position, 3 outfielders, and one utility. 21 player roster. my outfield is pretty good with carlos lee, mclouth, vladdy, curtis granderson, ryan braun, and jason bay. |
jonlee
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what kind of league has ichiro, abreu, and rios on the waiver wire?! a 3-team league? |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi, Tim. I'm in the same league as John Rambo and im offering him an amazing deal that satisfies both parties. See if you cant try to talk some sense into him, unless im wrong that is. Ok, i have great outfield help and he needs outfield help. and he just completed the trade where he gave matt holliday for linsecum and becket and ramariaz. his pitching is pretty much stacked now with linsecum, becket, dan haren, rich harden, johan santana, scott kazmir, ervin santana, and john lackey...thats a lotta good pitchers and i think he can afford to trade one away for his outfielder need. So, my trade was scott kazmir for any two of these three outfielders...jason bay, nate mclouth, and curtis granderson. its a non keeper league as well... so its scott kazmir for 2 of these 3 (jason bay, mclouth, granderson) a good trade for both parties? |
johnrambo
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hey tim, thanks for the help on the trade. who should i pick up from the free agents pool: alex rios, abreu, or ichiro. if you need to know where i stand in statistics in my league, i guess i could use help in RBIs and runs. |
twilliams
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Kick Their Pujols...heh. Right away Danks sticks out to me, just because I've got him on the majority of my teams, including my dynasty team where I consider him untouchable. AccuScore projects he will have seven wins, a 2.81 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP with 64 Ks in 80 innings over the remainder of the season. Two others I like are Cain and Hudson. Cain has trouble with consistency, but no one on this list has more potential than he does, and no one is better when they are on their game than him. Hudson is a solid pitcher if you don't need the strikeouts. AccuScore projections have Danks and Cain striking out more guys, with Hudson providing seven wins, a 3.16 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. I don't like Floyd, and AccuScore agrees, projecting him with a 4.00 ERA for the remainder of the season. Burnett is too inconsistent for my tastes, and there's always the question of injury. If you don't need strikeouts, Hudson is your best bet. If you want the total package, then Danks is your guy. My list is: 1. Danks 2. Hudson 3. Cain 4. Floyd 5. Burnett |
twilliams
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Rambo, That definitely is a great return for Holliday, even if he's putting up first round numbers. AccuScore has Holliday hitting .339 with 13 homers and 8 steals over the remainder of the season. That seems reasonable. Manny is hitting 11 homers, but has a .261 average in AccuScore forecasts. I'd have to disagree with the computer there, since Manny has hit no lower than .306 after the All-Star break the last three seasons. You're looking at about a 30 point drop in average, and in return, you're getting two aces. AccuScore forecasts have Lincecum/Beckett combining for 13 wins, 174 Ks, a 3.07 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 173 combined innings. Run with this deal. |
Kick Their Pujols
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Hi, Tim, eric bedards on the dl so who from here do you think is the best pickup in a non keeper league? Could you kidna rank them best to worst? and this pickup i would like to keep for a while not just one day. Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, or A.J. Burnett? Sorry i know its a lot of people. Thanks a lot! |
johnrambo
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yeah, youre correct, you probably couldnt answer those quesetions like that, but i hope you can answer this one. should i trade matt holliday for lincecum beckett and manny ramirez? it seems like im getting a lot of value for one guy. i can get david ortiz instead of ramirez also, but i want an outfielder. thanks |
twilliams
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Are you saying that Ethier, Rios, Ichiro, and Abreu are free agents? Or are you suggesting trading for them rather than going for a free agent? I really couldn't answer your question unless I knew the league size, roster sizes, and available free agents, plus your needs (steals, homers, average, etc.) |
johnrambo
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Hi tim, im in need of an outfielder that can play a good role on the bench. ive been thinking about picking up alex rios, ethier, abreu, or ichiro, there is too much parity among the outfielders in the free agents pool in my league. are there any hidden gems that i should pick up? thanks in advance. |
twilliams
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If you're trading Pujols for Berkman, I'd re-consider. While I'm not saying Berkman has been a fluke this season, I will say that his average has been out of control. It's mainly the product of an amazing month of May where he hit .471. In April he hit .303 and in June he hit .319. In the last three years Berkman has hit .304 in the final three months of the season. I expect his average for the remainder of this year to be in the .310 to .320 range. As for his other numbers, they're all legit. He has averaged 21 homers, 53 runs, and 58 RBIs in the final three months the last three years. Those are solid numbers, but you're really just making a lateral move by swapping him out with Pujols, and probably a bit of a downgrade. Over the same time span Pujols has averaged 20 homers, 61 runs, and 59 RBIs. The kicker is the average that Pujols will give you. In the final three months of the last three years Pujols has hit .349, .349, and .321. Bottom line is that they've both been playing well this season, and they both will continue to play well. However, if you want the best bet for the guy who will end up with the better average, it's Pujols. There's a reason Berkman's .347 average this season is getting way more hype than the .346 average of Pujols: It's expected out of Pujols. Add in the fact that they've both hit a homer about once every 14.5 at bats this season, and there's no reason to be looking for an upgrade over Pujols. Plus, I just love saying Pujols out loud, which is why my team name is called "Kick Their Pujols". |
FND
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btw, i was bestdrive also, i dont know why i made two different names...but anyway you saved me big time on the braun trade and unfotuanatly i had confidence in escobar, but at least im up to date now thanks to you...i have another question, theres a possible trade in the works, lance berman for albert pujols...i put lance berkman at first baseman so theres not a position problem. give me those beast stats you find and help me out again pls! |
twilliams
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FND, The latest updates on Escobar (which happen to be today) are saying that there is a possibility that he may need surgery, which will put him out for 12 months. Even if he can avoid surgery, I don't see him coming back until late in the year, and only in a reserve role. Feel free to drop him from your DL if you need the spot for other players. I've done so as of three weeks ago. |
twilliams
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BestDrive, Braun has to be outfield eligible by now in your league. What do you hate about him that would make you trade Sheets for an upgrade from Braun to Holliday? So far Braun has hit .310 in the majors with a home run every 14.62 at bats and the potential to steal 15 bases a year. The only difference between Holliday and Braun is the increase in average, which is big this year after Braun's .248 in June. The question you have to ask is, do you want to trade Ben Sheets for a boost in average? Holliday will definitely help you win the batting average category, but Braun won't do anything to help you lose it. |
FND
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hey any updates on Kelvin Escobar?...how do you think he'll do? |
BestDrive
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Hi Tim. I was wondering if you think that this would be a good trade for me. I'm giving away Ryan Braun and Ben Sheets for Matt Holliday. My other third baseman is Miguel Cabrera and i think he'll bounce back. My other pitchers are C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy, Eric Bedard, Roy Holliday, Felix Hernandez, and Ricky Nolasco as a waiver wire pickup. My other out fielders are good but putting someone as dominant as Holliday would be great. Do you think this is a good trade for me? |
PW
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If it's cooked already and comes in a bag, you don't tip, no matter how the bag gets to you. |
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