3rd 10 Game Recap (Though none are 10 Game Samples...)

After a weekend that saw our first three game series sweep of the season, let’s take a look at the recent returns.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 10 Games	347	47	14	46	20	56	.241	.285	.725	.198	2.8
The Previous 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	1,112	149	38	141	83	174	.255	.313	.752	.184	2.09

Offensively, the Astros have been a mixed bag. On one hand, the team has scored more than five runs in five straight games. It's terrible BABIP numbers have arrived at the mean, as we’ve been scoring more runs in spite of our low team batting average and on base percentage. What could be a harbinger of darker days to come is the incredibly low team OBP. Given that our team OBP in the previous twelve games was .357, a dip all the way to .285 is startling. For comparison’s sake, the San Diego Padres have the worst team OBP of any NL team, but our guys have outscored the Friars by 34 runs this season, or a little over a run per game played thus far. How is this possible? A look at our team’s ISO (isolated slugging percentage) tells us that although the Astros aren’t getting on base with any regularity, they are getting tremendous bang for their buck. It seems as if the team may settle around where their season totals current stand, as far as the type of offensive production that we will see. In other words: don’t hold your breath as far as hoping this team will challenge the Cubs for OBP supremacy.They're simply aren't built that way. But, that may ok as long as the folks in the Crawford Boxes keep getting souvenirs that they don’t throw back. Look for JR Towles and Carlos Lee to start racking up hits at a greater rate, and for Lance to slide a little, based on his average BABIP, but fairly low line drive percentage (LD%).

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	49.3	3	2	37	29	6.75	1.28	5.47	.327	46%	2.2	3.2
Previous 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	166	7	9	118	69	6.40	1.71	4.72	.312	45%	9.2	9.7

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	45.3	3	2	4	41	13	8.15	3.15	2.78	.213	2.58	6.15
Previous 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	110.0	8	7	7	95	37	7.72	2.56	4.17	.289	3.02	8.92

The pitching staff has also seen a bit of a regression over the past 10 games. More walks and a much higher ERA jump off the stat sheet for the starters. Chris Sampson has struggled in his past two starts in Arizona and yesterday against the Brewers, after dominating the Reds in the Queen City. The team leads the league in home runs against, couple that with a ground ball ratio below 50%, and this team is staring at a potential problem in the first 30 games of the season. However, the team’s K/BB and K/9 ratios have been adequate, which is due in large part to a bullpen that has been led by closer Jose Valverde, who has converted his last four saves , while not giving up a run in that same stretch. Again though, a very low BABIP indicates some regression is imminent, hopefully the K rates maintain near their current levels, so the pen’s overall effectiveness will not diminish.

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