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Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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St. Louis is in a bind. Before play on Tuesday, the Cardinals are longshots to win the division trailing the Cubs by 7.5 games. They are just 2.5 games back of the Brewers however and have a real shot at the postseason. In fact, they would probably be in the wild card lead right now if not for the ineffectiveness of the bullpen this season. Jason Isringhausen entered the year as one of the most consistent closers of the past few years yet he fell apart spending several weeks on the disabled list interspersed with ineffective innings on the mound. His replacement, Ryan Franklin, was a modest stopgap and had some success for awhile before morphing back into, well, Ryan Franklin which is to say he’s just not very good. The pair is appropriately tied for the major league in blown saves with seven each. If just three of those 14 games were finished off the Cardinals would be in position for the playoffs right now.

So what can manager Tony La Russa do now? Adam Wainwright is on a rehab assignment and could come back to shore up the bullpen. The injury to Chris Carpenter complicates matters leaving a hole in the rotation. I have to believe Wainwright will be utilized in his more valuable role as a starter when he returns. Carpenter has missed over a year to injuries and can’t be relied on to pitch every five days for the rest of the season. That should leave the closer role to rookie Chris Perez who looks ready for the role in his second stint at the major league level. Perez was recalled on August 6 and since then he has thrown six innings allowing zero runs and just two hits with an impressive nine strikeouts. He has four saves in that span. With fellow rookie Kyle McClellan lending some stability as a set-up man, La Russa would be wise to stick with Perez as the closer and allow Wainwright, one of the best pitchers in the NL, to return to the rotation.

Perez’s ranking is held down a bit at No. 23 because of the outside possibility he doesn’t keep the closer role for the rest of the season. Adam Wainwright checks in at the bottom of the rankings in the unlikely event he comes back in the bullpen.

On to the bullets:

• A change at the top of the rankings this week as Francisco Rodriguez has blown saves in August allowing five runs while recording just one out in each of those two outings. Meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t blown a save since June 22. K-Rod still leads the world in saves with 47 for the season, although both Brad Lidge and surprisingly Trevor Hoffman have more saves over the past month.

• Lidge had been complaining of being thrown off completely by his All-Star game appearance when he threw over 100 pitches warming up in the bullpen. He looks finally recovered from that experience though as he has given up just one run over his last 9.1 IP. Prior to that streak he had given up seven runs in a span of four outings. He leads the majors with nine saves over the last month.

• Cleveland manager Eric Wedge seems to be the one baseball man thinking out of the box. It seems he understands the value of outs in high leverage situations, and frequently uses his best pitchers in the middle innings when there are more outs to record. Last year he did this by using Rafael Perez and Rafeal Betancourt in set-up roles and using Joe Borowski as the closer. This year, after Borowski, Betancourt, and Masa Kobayashi completely failed in the ninth inning, Wedge has turned to Jensen Lewis to close keeping Perez in the middle innings.

Clearly Perez is the better pitcher, but Lewis isn’t a bad option to use for the final three outs. He has already saves three games without incident. While the walk rate (4.10 BB/9) is worrisome, Lewis succeeds by stranding runners (78.9% LOB) and keeping the ball inside the park (0.58 career HR/9). AccuScore projects him to be solid the rest of the way with six saves, a 3.44 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Over just 18 innings those ratios won’t hurt you.

Billy Wagner still has pain and swelling in his elbow as of Tuesday (8/19) so don’t expect him back anytime soon. Given his age and injury problems this year I wouldn’t count on him at all down the stretch. It is unknown when Wagner will resume throwing, and there is just one month left in the season. Aaron Heilman will continue to head up the mess that is the Mets’ bullpen by committee.

• Big downgrade this week for Francisco Cordero. He’s been flat out bad lately with a 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the past month. He has just three saves and two losses in that span as well. The Reds already weren’t very good, and now without Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, they are rarely in position to win. Cordero has thrown just twice in save situations in August in seven appearances.

• So long Huston Street, hello Brad Ziegler. The sidearming rookie has taken control of the closer role, and went the first 38 innings of his career without allowing a run. Granted, he has given up runs in his last two outings, but both were two inning stints and one was a save. He now has three saves overall, two of them coming in two inning outings. No one can argue against the 0.43 ERA but the weak K/9 and K/BB numbers (4.29 and 1.54 respectively) are a bit of a concern in the long run. Street is completely buried in the bullpen for the A’s, although he could reemerge next season as a closer likely in another city.

John Grabow has been solid for the Pirates with four saves and a 1.35 ERA in August. His tenure as closer has come to an end however as Matt Capps looks ready to return from injury. Capps will pitch once more at Double-A Altoona on Wednesday and is schedule to rejoin Pittsburgh on Friday. He also shed 15 pounds during his time on the disabled list in an effort to stay healthy. Capps believes the extra weight contributed to his shoulder bursitis that has kept him out of action since July 1.

• With C.J. Wilson out for the year, Eddie Guardado becomes the man in Texas. Everyday Eddie’s numbers look great: 3.21 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. That’s clearly not the whole story however as his BABIP is just .222 and his home run rate is abnormally low at 0.57 especially given his home park and flyball tendencies. Expect a correction to come soon. He’ll get saves, but likely with much worse peripheral numbers.

Troy Percival was able to avoid surgery on his injured knee and now expects to be back when he is eligible to return on August 30. Officially it’s closer by committee right now, but Dan Wheeler has gotten the last two saves. He’s the guy you want to own while Percival rehabs, and Grant Balfour is number two.

Kerry Wood is back in the closer role and looks fine. Carlos Marmol goes back to a set-up role, and appears to have rediscovered his mojo as well. Marmol could still steal a save or two in relief of Wood.

  RANK   TEAM     CLOSERS  
1 BOS Jonathan Papelbon
2 LAA Francisco Rodriguez
3 MIN Joe Nathan
4 NYY Mariano Rivera
5 KC Joakim Soria
6 PHI Brad Lidge
7 TOR B.J. Ryan
8 CHW Bobby Jenks
9 HOU Jose Valverde
10 MIL Salomon Torres
11 FLA Kevin Gregg
12 LAD Jonathan Broxton
13 COL Brian Fuentes
14 CHC Kerry Wood
15 SF Brian Wilson
16 SD Trevor Hoffman
17 CIN Francisco Cordero
18 ARI Brandon Lyon
19 BAL George Sherrill
20 SEA J.J. Putz
21 ATL Mike Gonzalez
22 WAS Joel Hanrahan
23 OAK Brad Ziegler
24 STL Chris Perez
25 PIT Matt Capps
26 CLE Jensen Lewis
27 TEX Eddie Guardado
28 DET Fernando Rodney
29 TB Balfour/Wheeler
30 TB Troy Percival
31 NYM Billy Wagner
32 PIT John Grabow
33 CHC Carlos Marmol
34 NYM Aaron Heilman
35 STL Adam Wainwright
36 OAK Huston Street

  RANK   TEAM     M. RELIEVERS  
1 LAD Hong-Chi Kuo
2 CLE Rafael Perez
3 CHW Octavio Dotel
4 SD Heath Bell
5 LAA Scott Shields
6 TB J.P. Howell
7 BOS Justin Masterson
8 CHC Jeff Samardzija
9 COL Taylor Bucholz
10 TOR Scott Downs
11 CHW Matt Thornton

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Comments (7)add comment

jonlee said:

 
Best pickup is definitely Danks. Then I'd go Cain, Hudson, Floyd, Burnett.
July 16, 2008

YouRight said:

 
Hi Jon, who from here do you think is the best pickup in a non keeper league? and this pickup i would like to keep for a while not just one day. Gavin Floyd, J. Danks (WhiteSox), Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, or A.J. Burnett? Sorry i know its a lot of people. Thanks!
July 09, 2008

jonlee said:

 
@ Real Closer: If you noticed these rankings are from 6/10 or before Wagner blew the 3 straight saves. He obviously doesn't belong there right now. Also Brian Wilson has no real track record, but he has been solid this year and I probably had him 4-5 spots too low.
June 13, 2008

The Real Closer said:

 
Billy Wagner fourth?!?! He's blown three straight saves. Saito seventh?!? Puh-leeze! Kerry Wood 13th? Since May 2, he's pretty much been untouchable, so he should be higher. Wilson 24th? You have GOT to be kidding me! What more can he do? He's been pretty much perfect. These are the worst rankings ever and you are an absolute joke.
June 13, 2008

jonlee said:

 
Huston Street is a prime candidate to be traded. Casilla is probably next in line to get saves. He did get one this past week over Embree and the other candidates in the Oakland bullpen so to answer your question, as soon as Street either gets hurt or traded.
Eric Gagne is like throwing gas on a fire, but he's getting paid $10 million so I think the Brewers will try to keep going with him. Somebody else is going to end the year closing in Milwaukee though, and I would be betting on Torres right now to be the guy over David Riske. If the Brewers want to stay competitive they can't keep running Gagne out there just to give up home runs and leads left and right.
May 09, 2008

kill the goat said:

 
when will we see casilia of oakland torrez of milwaukee or franklin of the st louis closing games
May 08, 2008

Doc's Sports Predictions Guy said:

 
C.J. and Brian are both disasters of Carney Philips proportions. Surprised to see you say that Kerry Wood is "looking good" considering his opening day debacle. He was 3-for-3 last week, but he's not exactly steady back there.
April 09, 2008

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