Baseball Mastermind

Rotogod here. It’s been a while, rotofans. I trust your fantasy baseball teams are all in first place and have suffered no injuries. Mine too. I jest.

Today, I will be taking more questions, following up on my last Ask Rotogod post.

George S. writes:

I’m desperately needing a starting pitcher. I belong to a NL only league where we bid on each player. All the good and even mediocre pitchers are gone….What is left that I think is worth looking at are the following:

Matt Belisle - CIN
Chris Sampson - HOU
Nelson Figueroa - NYM
Adam Eaton - PHL
Mark Hendrickson - FLO

Who would you recommend? Also, do you know of any other sleepers in the bullpen what could become a starter?
Thanks for you help in advance.

You’re in a hell of a bind there, aren’t you?

Out of those guys, I don’t like Sampson at all. Adam Eaton pitches in a bad ballpark and so does Belisle, but of those two, Belisle has better upside because he’s the youngest of the guys you mentioned and had solid numbers last season, at least in terms of K/BB ratio, probably the stat I look at most along with K/9. He’s one to consider.

I think Figueroa is flash in a pan to some extent with the solid starts he’s had so far (remember: he did not pitch in the majors in either 2005 or 2007), but he might hold his own and win some games with the Mets’ defense behind him.

Hendrickson won’t be terrible at anything but he won’t be good at anything either and should have the lowest ERA of this group.

In summary, I’d take Belisle on age and upside. He’ll get the most K’s and probably pitch the most innings. After that, I’d take Hendrickson if you’re looking long-term fix and Figueroa if you’re looking for a short-term fix.

As for a sleeper, I’ve always been a fan of Anthony Reyes of the St. Louis Cardinals as a guy who could be promoted from the bullpen. If he’s not available, keep track of Sean Gallagher of the Cubs who was recently promoted. I think he’ll be a solid option if he gets a shot at the rotation.

Thanks for the question.

#2 Question from Jeff D.:

I was lucky enough to win the Cliff Lee waiver-wire lottery. Now, I’m dancing. Is he back to where he once was as an 18-game winner? Or should I sell high?

I’ve gotten a few questions about Cliff Lee and I can understand that given his 5-0 record and 0.96 ERA. What’s more Lee has struck out 32 batters and walked only 2 in 37.2 IP. I’ll say this: Lee is a good pitcher and he will probably have a good year as he is on a strong team in Cleveland and is only 29 years old, still within the age-range where he could have as strong a season as 2005 season when he went 18-5 with a 3.79 ERA and 143 K’s. Will he be better than that season? I can’t really say that he will. He doesn’t have great velocity on his fastball, but his control is good and has been superb so far this season. If you can trade him and get more than back than a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA-type pitcher is worth, by all means, sell high. At the same time, even when he regresses, he will probably be a good #3-4 starter in most leagues and may set career highs in every category except wins and probably strikeouts.

Thanks for the question.

Next question comes from Frank D.:

Hi, I play in a National League-only keeper league. I was lucky enough to draft Justin Upton, who I know you’re high on, but I was offered a deal to trade him, Jason Marquis and Rafael Soriano for Carlos Lee and Micah Owings, Ryan Church and Randy Johnson. Since Soriano has apparently lost his closer job to John Smoltz, this trade will definitely help my team in the short-term and I do need pitching. What do you think of Justin Upton in the short and long-term as a keeper?

When evaluating trades, Frank, the most important thing is to identify the best player in the deal, and in this case, that is Upton, BY FAR, especially because you said you play in a keeper league and Upton probably has the longest career ahead of him, given that he is only 20 this season (barring injury). As I read somewhere, one scout said, Upton is a player without upside. The sky is the limit. I was going to say that you should look at your league’s parameters and rules and determine if getting those pitchers will help you win the league, but it’s only May. Don’t do it! Don’t trade Upton for anything short of a top ten player in a keeper league, maybe top five. Hell, if you’re in first or second at the trade deadline and dealing Upton will ensure that you will win your league, then and only then, would I consider trading him. And you would regret it, even if you won the title.

Thanks for the question. PS. Don’t do it.

And finally, to leave you with some words of roto-wisdom:

Sell High:

-Gavin Floyd, RHP, CHW: Flamed-out prospect who failed because of 1) command, 2) lack of a third pitch. What about a 19/18 K to BB ratio should make me think anything has changed?

-Greg Smith, LHP, OAK: Nothing about this guy’s minor league track record makes me believe his major league performance is for real. Dana Eveland looked real good too until he got bombed recently. These guys are mediocre at best.

Buy Low:

-Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS: Started out low in 2007 and wound up just fine and he’s in a better ballpark.

-Philip Hughes, RHP, NYY: Sometimes the best time to trade for a player is when they’re hurt as long as they’ll be back.

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