| NHL: Eastern Conference Finals |
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Pittsburgh Penguins (2) vs Philadelphia Flyers (6): Pittsburgh leads 3-1 Series Analysis: This marks the second series in a row where the Penguins have gone up 3-0, only to lose game four and return home for game five. The Penguins can only hope that the outcome is the same in this series as when they beat the Rangers in overtime during game five. The Penguins have to love returning home, where they are 7-0 in the playoffs, and have a 15 game winning streak dating back to February 24th. The end of game four led to a lot of scuffles in the final minutes, which could make game five a very physical game. The Penguins have had no problem playing physical hockey, making it a habit in the playoffs of getting out to an early lead, then playing shut down defense the remainder of the game. Until game four of this series, the Penguins were doing very well at jumping out to an early lead, outscoring their opponents 10-4 in the first period. The Flyers took the advantage in game four, outscoring the Penguins 3-0. The Flyers have been without their top two defenders, Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn, for the duration of this series. This could change, as Timonen may be released to play in game five, while the swelling around Coburn’s eye could allow him to return on Sunday as well. Coburn and Timonen’s return to the lineup would increase the Flyers’ chances of winning game five by seven percentage points, according to AccuScore simulations. Based on the success the Penguins have had at home in the playoffs, the Flyers will need all the help they can get. Key for Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh delivered their second sub-par game four in a row. Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been the top goaltender in the playoffs, allowed three goals on 33 shots. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa, Sergei Gonchar, and Ryan Malone were a few of the many Penguins held without a point, with the combo of Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy, and Maxime Talbot combining for the only two goals in game four. All of the above players who took the night off in game four are scoring a point in over half of simulations, while Fleury is allowing two or fewer goals in every simulation. This production is allowing the Penguins to dominate in simulations. Key for Philadelphia: The Flyers managed to hold Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin without a point in game four, which is no easy task. When you consider that they did this without their top two defenders, it makes the accomplishment all the more spectacular. R.J. Umberger maintained his production in the playoffs, while Joffrey Lupul stepped up with two goals. Daniel Briere finally scored a goal, and the Flyers will need more production from him, and Vaclav Prospal, since they can’t bank on shutting Crosby and Malkin down for the remainder of the series. AccuScore Projections: The Penguins have been dominant at home for the second half of this season through the playoffs, and will get two chances to close this series out at home. Pittsburgh has a 94 percent chance of winning this series, currently up 3-1 with game five at home. Trackback(0)
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