Every Thursday throughout the NFL season, we will look at weekly key match-ups in fantasy football to see if any players will have an edge over their competition. Obviously, LaDainian Tomlinson and Peyton Manning have an advantage each and every week - they are just that good. For the rest of the players, however, success usually depends on match-ups and game planning.
As the season goes on, we will be able to pull all kinds of data to help determine these advantages. We will look at teams’ passing, rushing, receiving, and scoring offenses as it relates to their opponents. We can also look for hints from a game planning prospective. For example, as Jacksonville’s HC Jack Del Rio turned red during last week’s post-game inteviews, he swore that in Week 2, his team would not give up so many rushing yards- in turn, you can probably infer that starting Atlanta RB Warrick Dunn this week might not be a good idea, even if Tennessee destroyed the Jags with their ground attack in Week 1. Like I said, as the season progresses, these statistical trends will become more and more apparent. For now, we just have to go on preseason projections and what we saw in Week 1.
The five best offensive teams in Week 1 for total yards and scoring were: the Cowboys (478yds, 45pts), Colts (452yds, 41pts), Patriots (431yds, 38pts), Giants (438yds, 35pts), and Lions (392yds, 36pts). Therefore, we can claim that the five worst defensive teams were their opponents: the Giants, Saints, Jets, Cowboys, and Raiders respectively. By looking at this data, as well as team data for rushing, passing, and receiving defense, some players jump out as having an advantage - and these are the players who I believe will succeed this week.
QUARTERBACKS
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT - The Steelers play host to the Bills this Sunday. Last week, Buffalo allowed 299 passing yards to Denver QB Jay Cutler. At the same time, Big Ben was passing for 4 touchdowns against the lowly Browns. The third worst passing defense (so far) meets a Steelers team that is looking to air it out much more this season - and this adds up to a big game for Roethlisberger. How bad do you think the Bills are missing Nate Clements now???
Brett Favre, GB - In Week 2, Favre and the Pack will be traveling to the Meadowlands to take on the Giants. It may be an anomaly, but last week, the Giants were dead last in passing defense, allowing 336 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. Yikes!!! As the game wore on, you could tell that things weren’t right with the Giants defense, as many of their players appeared to be gassed by halftime. Brett Favre was happy with a win, but you could tell in the post-game interviews that he was upset that his offensive group never got on track. Look for Favre to right the ship this week and put up big passing yards.
Drew Brees, NO - Last week, Brees was downright awful. He managed only 192 passing yards and two interceptions – not exactly what you expect from a guy who was considered by many (myself included) to be a Top 5 QB coming into this fantasy season. This week, Brees will face the Buccaneers, and he is my pick for bounce-back Player of the Week. In Week 9 last season, Brees went over to Tampa Bay and threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Saints really did not look ready to face a team like the Colts last week, but they should be ready for the Bucs. Look for Brees to put up numbers closer to Week 9 last year, instead of something similar to the Week 1 performance from this year.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Chris Chambers, MIA - The Dolphins are at home this week, as they play host to the Cowboys. In Week 1, the Cowboys allowed the primary receiver for the Giants (Plaxico Burress) to gain 144 receiving yards and three touchdowns - and that was at home in Texas Stadium Last week, Chambers, the Dolphins go-to guy, had a solid 92 yards receiving but no touchdowns. That is a pretty good start for Chambers, who seemed to struggle at times in 2006, and I am sure that he is glad that QB Trent Green targeted him so many times. Expect even bigger numbers this week against a Cowboys team that clearly has problem covering top-flight receivers.
Bernard Berrian, CHI - Last week, Berrian put up pretty good receiving numbers (5rec, 83yds, 0tds) against a really tough Chargers defense who was fueled by their raucous home crowd. This week, the Bears will be at home against the Chiefs – a team that gave up 144 yards and a TD to the Texans primary receiver, Andre Johnson. Berrian is a speedster who should give the Chiefs fits and find his way to the end zone in Week 2.
Brandon Marshall, DEN - The Broncos will be at home this weekend as they take on the Raiders. Last week, the Raiders allowed 284 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to the Lions. The Raiders should do a good job containing Javon Walker with their super stud CB Nnamdi Asomugha, who held his own against Detroit’s Roy Williams last week. The problem was, however, that the Lions secondary receivers torched the Raiders. Look for Marshall to get targeted even more in Week 2, and keep in mind, Marshall had five catches for 52 yards and a touchdown last week. Cutler seems to have good rapport with him, as they worked on the second unit together last season, and the young quarterback will lean on Marshall this week.
RUNNING BACKS
Rudi Johnson, CIN - Week 1 was not very kind for Johnson, who didn’t find the end zone in the NFL’s opening week for the first time in four years. On top of that, he amassed only 52 rushing yards – whatever happened to Johnson being “Mr. Consistency”? Things should take a turn for the better this week, as the Bengals travel to Cleveland, a team that allowed 204 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1. After the Bengals jump out to a big lead, they will pound the ball on the ground, giving Johnson plenty of touches. In two games against the Browns last season, Johnson posted 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns. I bet he wishes he could face the Browns every week.
Frank Gore, SF - Opening weekend was a little slow for the 49ers - their whole offense looked sloppy, yet they still managed to win. Gore had only 55 yards, but he did eventually find the end zone against the Cards. The Rams had the fourth worst rushing defense in Week 1. I’m sure that Gore remembers when he put up 261 yards and 2 touchdowns in his two games against St. Louis last season. He has their number, and I am sure that Gore is ready to rip off a few big runs against the Rams weak run defense. You can count on Gore going over the century mark and punching in a TD this weekend in St. Louis.
Julius Jones/Marion Barber, DAL - I hate to group two guys together, but Jones and Barber are pretty much a two-headed monster. Most fantasy owners will be using either of them as one of their flex players, and this is the week to make sure they’re in your starting fantasy lineup. The Cowboys will travel to Miami to face a Dolphins team that had the third worst rushing defense in Week 1. Maybe having one of the oldest defensive units in the NFL has finally caught up with the Dolphins. Last week, Miami gave up 191 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Washington’s two-headed RB monster. I see no reason why the Cowboys would not be able to exploit this same weakness with Jones and Barber.
TIGHT ENDS
I am going to make a reach on a few tight ends who most people may not be tracking. Sure, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and Eric Johnson all ended up as their QB’s favorite target in Week 1. However, I have faith that these two guys will jump out in Week 2.
Donald Lee, GB - Last week, the Giants gave up 116 yards and atouchdown to the aforementioned Witten. Lee only had four grabs for 27 yards in Week 1, but he did something that Bubba Franks did not do - he did not drop any passes or quit on routes. Franks is clearly passed his prime and as of today, the Packers website has Lee listed as the primary TE on their depth chart. As we discussed earlier, Favre is looking to get his offense rolling, and I am sure that the Packers noticed the Giants had trouble covering a pass catching TE. This all adds up to a breakout game for Donald Lee. (Plus, we know that Favre likes to throw passes to guys named “Donald”.)
Marcus Pollard, SEA - In Week 1, the Seahawks were dominating the Bucs the whole game and really did not need to pass in the second half. Pollard only had 5 receptions for 43 yards in that contest, but I expect a more competitive game against the Cardinals this week. DJ Hackett is out, and we must remember that Jerramy Stevens was once a popular target of Hasselbeck’s (though Hasselbeck could have probably done without the numerous drops), so Pollard may turn into Seattles primary checkdown option.
DEF/ST
The Packers get a banged up Giants team… the Bengals get a suspect offensive team in the Browns… and Baltimore gets a Jets team at home that will starting an unproven QB. |
