MLB Trade Market

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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There’s really only one rule that is universal to all fantasy leagues, and that rule is: don’t talk about your fantasy teams. I’m breaking that rule today. I’m breaking it because the trade deadline has passed in most leagues, and since I’ve been writing a trade column all season, I figured I would post my favorite trades from a few of the leagues I’m in. Feel free to break the rule yourself by adding your own trades in the comments section.

Rafael Furcal for Adam Wainwright

I drafted Hanley Ramirez in the first round in this league, and for depth I drafted Rafael Furcal in a later round. Furcal would only play in 16 more games for his new team, while Wainwright gave me a solid starter to make up for my drafting of Rich Hill.

NL-only League

This was my most active trading league. I ended up making nine deals over the course of the season, drawing the wrath of the first place manager (who I eventually passed). After every trade I received a furious message proclaiming that I was a lying cheat, scum, and that my methods made him sick. That being said, none of the deals were really unfair. Here is the rundown.

Chris B Young and Brian Wilson for Corey Hart and Max Scherzer

This was at the start of May, right after Scherzer pitched his seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings, and right before getting moved to the rotation. At the time Hart had one homer and four steals, while Young had six homers and three steals. Since the trade Young has hit 12 homers with seven steals, while Hart has hit 18 homers with 18 steals. The Scherzer part didn’t work out as well as I hoped, but I’d take that risk again.

Nate McLouth/Brian Fuentes/Shane Victorino/Ian Snell for Carlos Beltran/Xavier Nady/Todd Wellemeyer/Andrew Miller

McLouth was hitting .312 with 12 homers and four steals when I traded him for Beltran, who was hitting just .246 with three homers and five steals. I later dealt Beltran for Brad Lidge, and Todd Wellemeyer for Roy Oswalt. My only regret in this deal is selling low on Victorino.

Carlos Beltran and Wandy Rodriguez for Brad Lidge and Troy Tulowitzki

In the time I had Beltran he hit .310 with eight homers and seven steals. I was within reach of a few points in saves, so I dealt for Lidge, and took a chance on Tulowitzki, who had a .152 average with one homer, after just coming off the DL. Since then Tulo has hit .299 with four homers.

Josh Banks for Bronson Arroyo

This was my favorite trade, because it was so subtle. Banks had two wins, a 2.21 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts in 40.2 innings. Arroyo was fresh off a one inning, ten earned run performance. Since then Arroyo has posted seven wins with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.

Lance Berkman/Todd Wellemeyer/Eric Stults for David Wright/Roy Oswalt/Adam LaRoche

Berkman crashed after this deal, hitting .266 with four homers and three steals, while Wright took off, hitting .310 with ten homers and six steals. Oswalt missed some time to injury, but has been a better option than Wellemeyer, and LaRoche did his usual second half takeoff, while Stults didn’t last in the majors very long.

Rick Ankiel and Chase Headley for Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly

You can probably guess by my earlier trades that I had no problem getting offense, selling it at a high point, and getting new offense at a low point. This allowed me to make this deal for some much needed pitching help.

Ryan Zimmerman and Jair Jurrjens for Mike Cameron and John Maine

I mainly needed an outfielder after dealing away Headley and Ankiel, but I also figured Jurrjens would see a slump in the final months of the season. In hindsight I should have traded for Derek Lowe rather than Maine.

Aramis Ramirez for Brett Myers

I didn’t need the offense, but the wins and strikeouts could help me move up a few points.

Matt Kemp for Kerry Wood

This trade was hard to make, because Kemp is one of my favorites, but I knew by making this deal I’d gain two guaranteed points in saves, while possibly not losing any offensive points at all.

Keeper League Trades

In the first year of a long term keeper league I made a series of trades that didn’t exactly work out as well as I wanted. That being said, I am currently in first place despite these moves, so I guess it is possible to make some questionable moves and still have a chance to win your league.

Chien-Ming Wang/Pat Burrell/John Buck for Shaun Marcum/Brian Bannister/Paul Konerko

Marcum was better than Wang, and Bannister was good for awhile, but Konerko never came around, and while Burrell’s average tanked, he maintained his home run pace.

Brian Wilson for Jason Varitek

I needed a catcher, and you can probably guess that I didn’t trust Wilson to keep the closer’s job in San Francisco.

Joe Saunders for Francisco Liriano

I thought Saunders would crash, and Liriano would be up soon. This was at the start of June. I like the trade now, but I had to wait two months for Liriano to come up. In my defense, no one was taking Saunders for anything more.

Felix Hernandez and Carlos Gomez for Rafael Furcal and Matt Kemp

I thought Furcal would return in a week, giving me insurance at shortstop in case Tulowitzki didn’t do well in his return. I may use Kemp as a keeper option, so this deal works out, and I don’t feel the loss of King Felix as much since I have Kazmir and Lincecum.

Dynasty League

I took over a team in the sixth season of a dynasty league, and most of this season has been focused on getting a team in place that I like. I ended up making 11 trades, plus added guys like Ryan Doumit, Adam Lind, Carlos Gonzalez, and Scott Baker to my long term team. The trades were:

-Jon Lester for Todd Wellemeyer

-Delmon Young/Pat Burrell/Kevin Kouzmanoff for Shaun Marcum/Dana Eveland/Jason Bergmann

-Fausto Carmona for Carlos Quentin

-Oliver Perez for Justin Duchscherer

-Lance Berkman/Carlos Quentin/Billy Butler/Greg Smith/Joe Saunders/Shaun Marcum/Ian Kinsler/Wandy Rodriguez/Bobby Jenks for Dan Uggla/Dice-K/Adam Wainwright/Nate McLouth/Joey Votto/John Danks/Matt Garza/Chase Headley/Paul Konerko (This was a three way deal, but still massive. My main focus was getting pitching, which I got with Wainwright, Dice-K, Garza, and Danks.)

-Bobby Abreu for Stephen Drew

-Dice-K/Francisco Liriano/Radhames Liz/James Loney for Justin Morneau/Torii Hunter/Jonathan Sanchez/Jed Lowrie (My only regret is the Liriano for Hunter portion of the deal)

-Joey Votto and Shane Victorino for Jered Weaver and Carlos Gomez

-Bengie Molina and Dana Eveland for Ian Stewart and Joe Blanton (about a week before he was traded to the Phillies)

-Matt Garza and Greg Smith for Jeremy Guthrie and Rich Hill

-Aramis Ramirez/Joel Zumaya/Jered Weaver for Carlos Quentin/Shaun Marcum/Derek Lowe (This time I’m keeping Marcum and Quentin)

Hopefully my trade advice this season has helped you made some deals that put you in position to win your leagues. Check back during football season for the Trade Market, fantasy football style.

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twilliams said:

Justin,

Last year in the final three months, Teixeira hit .310 with 18 homers and 64 RBIs. Howard had a monster finish, with a .280 average, 28 homers, and 79 RBIs. The question you have to ask is, was that a fluke by Howard? He hit 19 homers in the first three months, only to take off in the second half.

Looking at the 2006 numbers, Howard hit an amazing 31 homers and 80 RBIs in the final three months of the season, and hit for a .340 average over that stretch. That year he hit 27 homers in the first three months.

There's something about Howard, most likely the warmer weather, that makes him heat up (no pun intended) in the final three months of the season. Howard's average should come around again in the second half, and he won't cost you too much from Teixeira. However, you're adding a lot of homers and RBIs by going with Howard over Teixeira. My guess is that Howard will get you at least 10 more homers and 15-20 more RBIs, with a 20 point drop in batting average from Teixeira.

July 08, 2008

Justin said:

Tim, I've been recieving trade offers that would give me Ryan Howard for Mark Teixeira. Tex has been a little disappointing this season but I know he is a second half hitter. Likewise Howard's average is equally disappointing but his other numbers are great.

I guess what I'm asking is who as more upside and overall value?

In my H2H league, I'm middle of the road for avg, top 3 in rbi, and bottom 3 in hr.

July 07, 2008

tyson said:

will mark teixeira get traded? and who would they get

July 03, 2008

twilliams said:

Braun is by far the best player in that deal. If you've got the offer, I would take it. In the last two years Braun has hit a homer once every 14.42 at bats. To put that in perspective, A-Rod has averaged a homer once every 14.22 at bats in his career.

Braun's slow start to the season may have raised questions with some people, but he has come on strong with 17 homers in the last two months. Braun and a waiver wire outfielder would be far more valuable than Beltran and Bradley.

June 30, 2008

Somesh Patel Singh said:

New bestfriend faraz? lol

June 29, 2008

yourintheclub101 said:

milton bradley and carlos beltran for ryan braun?

June 29, 2008

yourintheclub101 said:

tim...youre a life saver!! smilies/grin.gif

Thanks for the help Tim!!!!

June 24, 2008

twilliams said:

McLouth has been receiving regular playing time since August of last season. Since that point he has received 464 at bats, and in those at bats he has hit for a .289 average with 94 runs, 25 homers, 78 RBIs, and 25 steals. Simply put, McLouth is not a fluke.

That being said, you aren't going to get any kind of upgrade going with one over the other in this trade. AccuScore has McLouth batting .280 with 15 homers and 14 steals over the remainder of the season. Beltran is batting .286 with 15 homers and 12 steals. If this is a keeper league, I would stick with McLouth. If this is a single year league, Beltran may hold slightly more value simply because of the uncertainty that surrounds McLouth, and the name value that comes from Beltran.

I actually made this swap earlier in the year in a single year league, mainly due to the extra trade value Beltran's name value gives him. However, I have McLouth in a few keeper leagues and it would take more than Beltran for me to part with him there.

June 24, 2008

CouldntDoItWithoutMe said:

Hi Tim, I was hoping you could help me out with a trade. I would be trading away Nate Mclouth of the Pirates and be recieving Carlos Beltran. I know this is Nate's first season putting up these stats, and Beltran has more successfull seasons under his belt than Nate. But Nate's stuff could be for real too, he doesnt HAVE to cool down, you know what I mean? If you could help me out with it it'd be great!

June 24, 2008

twilliams said:

Actually, at the time of the trade, all of the news was that Furcal would be back June 17th. When this article was written, Furcal was expected to be back June 17th. It was only one day after this article was published that it was announced Furcal had a set-back and would be out for a much longer amount of time. Thus, your reasoning on the Beckett/Furcal swap would be true now, but was not true at the time of the veto, or of the time of this writing.

Therefore, with the knowledge that it would be Beckett for a Furcal that would be returning soon, I stand correct in saying that this deal should have never been vetoed. I agree, if it was Beckett for a Furcal that was returning in a month, it is worth a veto, but that's not the case. By your logic I can look back and say that an Alfonso Soriano for Dan Uggla trade made last week should have been vetoed because it was found out a week after the trade that Soriano suffered an injury and would miss six weeks.

June 12, 2008

xeifrank said:

Furcal is not coming back next week. You are way way way off on that one. Furcal is expected back in a best case scenario by the all-star break, but it I wouldn't hold out hope for the best case scenario on this injury. I would most likely veto this trade too. Beckett is worth more than a very injured Rafael Furcal. That's it right there, there should be no reason to look at the other possible veto explanations. What you need to do is offer more than Furcal. Instead of complaining about the veto process, why not sweeten the deal a little bit. If I am the 2nd, 3rd or 4th place team, I don't want to see the first place team get better by an uneven trade. In fact, when you are in first place, you should expect other teams to veto your trade. It comes with the territory. As an owner who works hard in the draft, studying players, looking for value and building a balanced team that is solid in all categories, I want the other owners punished for failing to draft enough starting pitching, relief pitching or players who can steal bases. If they are then able to make lopsided trades later in the season to fill these holes, it lessens all the work I did in the draft. I am always suspicious of trades, especially when it involves the first or second place team. You are the first place team, and your trade is not fair, thus the veto. Live with it, or sweeten the deal.

vr, Xeifrank

June 12, 2008

twilliams said:

I would say that I am an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going, although I'm not sure if I qualify since I get paid for it. Besides, who doesn't check to see when their starters are going? Either you don't play fantasy baseball, or you are the guy who drafts his team, then checks back in August to see how things are going.

Your comment would make sense if I was saying that it makes sense because the two players were providing the same amount of production as Wang...does that make sense? It wouldn't be beneficial to get similar production from two roster spots, rather than one. however, I project I will be adding an additional 10 wins and 150 Ks, which is better than I could find on the waiver wire in this particular league. So to recap, I traded Wang, and in return I got Wang's numbers, plus 10 wins and 150 Ks. I think that is worthy of an extra roster spot.

April 21, 2008

bgold1212 said:

You end up with 150 more strike outs from the combo. Too bad its a combo and they take up 2 roster spots. Or else your reasoning would make sense. It's not like your going to leave a spot blank when you have Wang. Unless you are an insane loser who checks when starting pitchers are going to start and adjusts his roster to that.

April 21, 2008

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