It's the dawn of a new section here at 'Fire Ned Colletti Now', and I hope i'll actually remember to do this every once in a while in the future. Anyway, I figure it'll be fun to document some of my "educated" predictions and see how they work out in the end.
20 Home Runs For Matt Kemp
Everybody and their mother predicted Kemp's power would emerge this season, and the general feeling was that he'd easily hit between 20-30 home runs. He's currently on pace for 12, but with his frame he always seems like a threat to go on a homer binge like he did in 2005 when he hit 7 homers in his first 100 major league at bats. The problem, however, is that Kemp hits a lot of a ground balls (44.5% this year, 45.4% last year). And even though his line drive percentage (26.7%) bodes very well for his batting average, it also means that he doesn't hit many fly balls (28.8%). When also considering that 23.8% of his at bats end in strikeouts, and only 8.8% of his fly balls end up over the fence, Matt simply doesn't give himself enough of an opportunity to hit home runs. All in all, it would be a stretch to assume Kemp can reach the 20 home run plateau unless something drastic happens with his percentages.
Prediction-Under
10 Starts This Year For Clayton Kershaw
This is a tough one because it hinges as much on external factors as it does on his effectiveness. Some of the factors include Jason Schmidt's health, the organization's plans for limiting his innings, and injuries to other starters. I think Kershaw should be at least an average starter this year, so I doubt they'll have to pull him for ineffectiveness. Furthermore, i'm going in the opposite direction of anything that relies on the health or effectiveness of Jason Schmidt. He'll make his 10 starts this year, even if they are only 5 innings an outing.
Prediction-Over
.800 OPS For Jeff Kent
Based on his track record, this shouldn't even be in question. From 2005 to 2007, Kent put up OPS numbers of .889, .862, and .875. However, given his age, it's highly possible that Kent slumps below that level this year, as Dodger Thoughts points out here. In addition to all of those points, there is a slight concern about his increasing amount of ground balls (31.4% to 33.7% to 37.8% to 42.7%) and the fact that he's only drawn 9 walks this year. Still, there are positive indications that Kent is due for a rebound. His expected BABIP (.327) is much lower than his actual BABIP (.250), and his line drive percentage, home runs per fly ball percentage, and contact rate are all similar to his career rates as a Dodger. If his BABIP was what it's supposed to be, he would have 11 extra hits on the year, his batting average would be a cool .308, and there would be no questions about his lack of production.
Prediction-Over
.300 Average For Russell Martin
Martin is raking right now to a tune of a .328 batting average, but more importantly his plate discipline has been outstanding. His K/BB rate is at 0.81, and he's hitting a career high amount of line drives (20%). The problem, of course, is that he's only gotten one full game of rest all season. It's important because he wore down each of the last two seasons and hit a combined .259 in September and October because of it. Moreover, while his line drive percentage is excellent, his expected BABIP (.320) is still much lower than his actual BABIP (.360), so you can expect a slight regression there even without assuming he'll fade at the end. Pair his late season struggles and high BABIP with the fact that he's hitting a higher rate of infield flies than ever, and he seems much more likely to repeat last year's batting average of .293 than to maintain his current level of production.
Prediction-Under
15 Wins For Anybody On The Dodgers Pitching Staff
Brad Penny is currently the only Dodger on pace to win 15 games, but he doesn't seem very likely to attain the total based on how he's pitched this year. His wins have been more a product of luck than anything he's earned through merit, as Sons Of Steve Garvey have proven here.
Penny aside, wins are generally tought to predict because they're as reliant on the team's offense as the pitcher's performance. As it stands, the Dodgers only have 4 starters that are on pace to get the full quota of 30-34 starts, and those 4 each have about 18-20 starts left, assuming they stay healthy. The problem is that it's very hard for me to see any of them muster 10-13 wins out of their remaining starts. Chad Billingsley is probably the best bet to get there, but it's still an awful lot to ask when you're getting less than 4 runs of support per start. For any of the starters to put on a run that resembles Brandon Webb's 9 straight wins, it would be heavily reliant on the competence of the Dodgers offense. Sad to say, but that's never a good bet.
Prediction-Under
1 All-Star For The Dodgers
Martin is probably the third best offensive catcher in the NL right now, but he probably deserves to make it anyway. Besides, I think he is almost a mortal lock because of the rule that every team must have a representative present. And since everybody else on the Dodgers blows this year, I would be floored if anybody but Russell Martin makes the All-Star team.
Prediction-Push
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