Now do it for Bedard!

(not really)

Maestri: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 0 BB, 7-1 GO-FO
Vitters: 2/4, 2 RBI
2008 drafted 2B Jake Opitz homered again.
Pawelek didn’t pitch well.

It appears that baseball’s trade-deadline enthusiasts might get their wish. But don’t expect the New York Yankees to emerge as the winners of the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes. ‘'Although we don’t comment on individual players, it’s prudent for us to do due diligence to be buyers or sellers,‘’ Indians General Manager Mark Shapiro told Newsday on Monday, ‘'so that if an opportunity presents itself, we can execute an intelligent trade.‘’ In other words, the Indians have begun scouting organizations that have expressed an interest in Sabathia, or that have the necessary supply of young players, or both
—Akron Beacon Journal

If there is a silver lining here, it’s that Hendry should DEFINITELY be looking for another starter now. Acquiring a Burnett, Cook, Bedard or Sabathia, combined with a healthy Z returning makes us possibly the best team in baseball.

Cone makes a video

Oh look everyone beat me to it.

This is the worst thing ever done at ACB.

Loud sustained applause
n/t

Doctor Spock?

no way losing zambrano only loses you a couple more games, especially considering what we have to replace him.

Doctor Spock?

Too normal.

no way losing zambrano only loses you a couple more games, especially considering what we have to replace him.

I know I’m the only one, but I’d call up JefF7 to replace him. It would give him a taste of the bigs and allow CHC to see how close he is. Hell, maybe he kicks ass and remains in the rotation for the rest of the year. Give him two or three starts.

As long as Z isn’t out for the year, I think this will be a blessing in disguise. He’s either just fine and won’t miss a start; mildly hurt (neck spasms) and will get some rest; or moderately hurt (out for 4-6 weeks) and Hendry will be more aggressive in finding another frontline starter.

There was a funny pitch that I felt something in my arm, and then the last pitch I threw in the game to Hinske, I dropped my arm a lot because I couldn’t go back to the top of my arm,” Zambrano said.

I was actually calmed to hear this.

Z REGULARLY drops his arm slot during the season.  He did this for a good portion of 2007.  It was probably due to shoulder discomfort.  He was able to make over 30 starts.

The problem with the lower slot, though, is that it seems to hurt Z’s control.

I’m not sure if surgery would help.

He has thrown over 200 innings every year for the past 5 years, and that is something rarely seen in today’s baseball.

We’ll see.

Now do it for Bedard!

Bedard is pretty good based on the Marcel projection.  3.70 WAR on 170 IP this year. 

If we assume Marshall pitches 30 innings until around the deadline, he’d contribute 0.32 WAR.  Then we trade for Bedard and he throws the remaining 60 innings.  He’d contribute 1.31 WAR.  So that’s a combined 1.63 WAR.  Only 0.64 combined WAR less than if Zambrano were healthy.  Add in the offense Zambrano provides and it’s right about 1 win.

that’s comforting, but do those projections take into account the kind of domino effects that might accrue from Z’s loss

To some extent it takes the bullpen issue you mention into consideration because I assumed an average of 6 IP per start, which is about what Zambrano has averaged in his career.  It’s also only based on one projection system (Marcel), but it’s as good as need be for this kind of back of the napkin calculations anyway.  It doesn’t take into consideration what any of these guys have done this year (Zambrano’s projection would be better if done right now, Hill’s worse, Bedard’s worse, etc.), but not much of an overall difference that we’re going to see anymore than 0.1 WAR difference even if were to create new projections for all the players. 

There’s a lot of other stuff that could be taken into consideration and when we know what is wrong with Zambrano I may take a stab at those, as well as finding guys we could trade for that would help us make up for the less the best we could (Bedard!!! since Sabathia won’t be available). 

Burnett is another one.  He was projected 2.79 WAR on 156 IP so 60 IP for the Cubs would be about 1.07 WAR.  That gets the total loss under 1 win as well. 

And this is based on what we all hope isn’t going to happen:  Zambrano out for the rest of the year.

We very well might make it to the postseason without Z. We won’t make it out of the first round without him, though.

Yeah, that’s another issue altogether.  Hendry will have to work some magic if this is to be a team that you could realistically expect to win in the playoffs if Zambrano were done.  Bedard is good, but he’s not enough.

Hendry will have to work some magic if this is to be a team that you could realistically expect to win in the playoffs

Flukes and bottled lightning aside, it won’t happen. Without Z, Dempster, Lilly and our third best starter would have to Suppan and Weaver AND our offense would have to fair well against good pitchers.

our offense would have to fair well against good pitchers.

That’s one thing the Cubs have done surprisingly well at this year. 

Based on talent alone, losing Zambrano the rest of the year would cost about what I mentioned in the article.  As we all know though, sometimes those fuckin intangibles do have an impact.  No way to know what kind of an impact it will have.

By the way, I think Gallagher is the kind of pitcher who will actually see an improvement in his effectiveness in the playoffs.  Guys who get it up there at 94 and 95 mph are usually more effective because hitters have worn down a little from the previous 7 months.  It sounds like he’s locked himself into the Cubs rotation and that’s something to watch down the stretch.  He’s got a very good fastball and is still working on his secondary pitches a bit.

No way to know what kind of an impact it will have.

Yes.

I’m actually surprised that we haven’t seen at least a few Cubs fans on BCB or NSBS suggest the Cubs move Rich Hill to CF using Ankiel as an example.  Stating something like:  Ankiel lost his control like Rich Hill is doing and Ankiel moved to CF and now he’s playing every day.

The similarities between Ankiel and Hill begin and stop with both of them losing their command.  Ankiel was a significantly better pitcher and he was also one of the best hitting pitchers in history.  Rich Hill, according to something I read recently on BP, is the worst hitting pitcher in the game. 

But I’m surprised that not even one diary has been written about it.

I’d say the loss of Z smarts most when you consider we don’t have Ward or Soriano. The offense is pretty meek without them. It may be nice to see Pie called back up, though Lou would probably rather put a tractor in CF than Pie.

Ward and Soriano out at the same time really does hurt this offense, especially when Derrek Lee is hitting like Ryan Theriot and has been for nearly 2 months.  And Ryan Theriot is coming back to the place known as earth. 

Where did Aramis Ramirez’s power go?  He hit 15 home runs the last 2+ months of the season when the Cubs acquired him in 2003.  Then he hit 36, 31, 38, and last year down to 26 and he’s on pace for just 23 this year.

I must say I’m surprised I haven’t been excoriated for suggesting a JefF7 callup…

I still don’t get playing Theriot at SS and Cedeno at 2B. Lou did do that yesterday, right? Perhaps that helps explain all the singles on Zambrano.

Maybe you saw this play last night, but Theriot took 2 steps to his right, fielded the ball and threw on to get the runner by a half-step.  You know what Len said:  Great play by Ryan Theriot to end the inning. 

Since when is going 2 steps to your right a great play?

I must say I’m surprised I haven’t been excoriated for suggesting a JefF7 callup…

I meant to comment, but forgot.  I don’t think it’s a good idea simply because you could turn what appears to be a 1-2 game loss into a 3-4 or 4-5 game loss really quickly if he sucks as much as he has in AA so far.  That’s a big risk to take in my opinion.  I think you go with whoever gives the team the best chance to win and that’s probably Sean Marshall.  I wish it were Rich Hill, but I think his career (being good that is) is over.

I wish it were Rich Hill, but I think his career (being good that is) is over.

Too bad we didn’t trade him when we were saying he should be traded while everyone else was calling him our ace…

I read a good point.  Say Z is out for a 2-3 weeks.  Looking at the schedule he would be pitching against all but one of the following:

Orioles, White Sox, Giants, Cards, and Reds

The Sox are a 1st place right now but that offense is way too streaky to get worked up over.

Too bad we didn’t trade him when we were saying he should be traded while everyone else was calling him our ace…

Yeah, no kidding.  I actually thought the Cubs should trade him this offseason.  They could have gotten a lot for him.  A lot more than he was worth based on his late 2006 and entire 2007 season.

JMan mentioned Felix Pie last night and either the Tribune or Sun Times reported he may get called up as “insurance.“  What the fuck?

JMan mentioned Felix Pie last night and either the Tribune or Sun Times reported he may get called up as “insurance.” What the fuck?

Johnson’s back is finally giving out and Edmonds is still having foot problems.  I’m surprised they’ve held up this long. You don’t become an everyday player less than a year after having a herniated disk and not have problems.

With Hill being a mess and Marshall just coming back from the DL maybe there’s a chance Veal gets a spot start if Zambrano needs to skip a start or two from tendinitis?

That’s why I was thinking JefF7. Hill and Marshall aren’t viable options right now. Lieber is the most likely option on the team. Hart suffered a concussion yesterday and that’s about it at Iowa. Veal or JefF7 are next and Veal may not throw enough strikes for Lou’s liking. Plus, Lou’s already said how impressed he’s been with JefF7.

Why isn’t Marshall a viable option?  He threw 5 innings his last start (June 14th) so I’d think that would leave the Cubs in comfortable shape to have him go 6 in his next start if it were with the Cubs. 

Hart has a concussion?

Veal is actually throwing more strikes than Samardzija this season, but he’s made an impression on Lou so I’d guess he’ll get a chance before Veal.

Good read.

I was under the impression there was an injury issue.

He’s made 3 starts since coming off the DL.  His last start he went 5 inning, allowed 4 hits and 2 earned runs. 

That’s too bad for Hart.  Must have happened last night.

He’s also left handed.

With Hart’s injury, I’d guess the most likely candidate is Marshall followed by Lieber with Ascanio getting called up.  Lieber isn’t stretched out so Veal, Hill and Samardzija may all have a better chance of getting called up.

He’s made 3 starts since coming off the DL.

Well then it looks like Z’s replacement options are (in order): Marshall, Lieber, JefF7/Veal.

Huh?

What?

What?

Really?

If marshall is healthy he’s absolutely the guy, for now at least.  if hill has 2 decent starts in a row they’ll bring him up at that point.

they have some other decisions to make coming up here with a bunch of guys banged up but maybe not enough to DL.  Ballgame’s injury is not helpful.

from my perspective the biggest risk is that lee keeps sucking.  what is up with that?

i think he meant he’s a long way a way because, among other reasons, he is/was a long way a way from a few decent starts.

I didn’t mean to suggest hill is getting called up anytime soon.  but if zambrano goes down, and marshall isn’t good, and hill’s next 2 or 3 starts don’t show wildness, my money is that he’s on the way back.  while the odds of all of those things happening is very low, when hill starts throwing strikes he’ll be in the big leagues.  And i think pinella’s threshold for “proving” he isn’t wild is 3 starts in a row without problems.