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B.C.

Before Colorado.

Back then, anything seemed possible.  Just a few days ago I was advocating the wait-and-see approach.  I didn’t want to trade any players.  I thought this road trip could be the one to turn things around.  After all, we had won our previous two series, and stood only 5.5 games out in a winnable division.

And turn around, we have, though not in the way we might have hoped.  After getting swept by the Rockies, the Indians find themselves in fourth place in the A.L. Central, 8.5 games back, 7 games below .500, with the Kansas City Royals (seriously) creeping up in our rearview mirror.  We look more and more like the 2006 version of the Tribe, who consistently found a way to lose games, despite having a positive run differential.

Which brings us to this: I never thought I would ask this question about this team, but is it time to start the firesale?  Should we cut our losses on this miserable season in which nothing has seemed to go right?  Dump contracts?  Trade C.C.?  Inundate our system with young talent from other teams, effectively giving up on this season.

As always, I fall somewhere in the middle of potential responses.

Despite how bad things are, I don’t think we should make any moves right now.  Let me be clear: this is not the sort of cockeyed optimism for which I’m known.  I no longer believe this team has a chance to compete in a meaningful way — not only because of the standings, but because of the injuries, the lack of drive, the manager’s obstinence, and the underperformance of some of its best players.  No, my reason for advocating staying with this roster for the time being is based on a gamble.

The gamble is that C.C. Sabathia’s trade value (and perhaps Paul Byrd’s) will actually go up as we get closer to the July 31st trade deadline.  This theory goes against conventional wisdom, since whoever would want these guys would get fewer starts out of them the longer we wait to deal them.  But I think the Yankees recent success, Carlos Zambrano’s sore shoulder, and the generally high level of parity in the AL East could start a bidding war for starting pitching come the third week of July: there will be a slew of buyers, and nobody else is selling what we’ve got.  If we can play the Yankees against the Cubs against the Angels against anyone else who might be interested, the value for starting pitching (especially our starting pitching) could skyrocket.

We will never get the kind of deal that brought Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Philips to Cleveland in return for an obese Bartolo Colon (can you believe that trade?), but Shapiro is capable of getting a lot out of a move.  I believe the key to maximizing the return is to stoke the fire for a few more weeks.

But in the back of my mind, I’m still hoping for a 15-game winning streak.   And while I’m at it, a winning lottery ticket.

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