Full Disclosure: I (Joel Stubblefield) hate the New England Patriots. I’m not sure why, but the overall smugness of the entire organization is really annoying to me. So what can be said about the 2007 season for the New England Patriots that hasn’t already been said? Contributing greatly to my overall happiness, they didn’t win the Super Bowl. But, they did complete a perfect 16-0 regular season, and had some incredible performances fantasy football wise. In fact, if you owned Tom Brady, Randy Moss, or Wes Welker in many leagues, you had quite the season.
Brady, perhaps my least favorite player on the planet, was absolutely surgical last year. His final numbers of 398 completions, 4,806 yards, and 50 touchdowns were simply filthy. Moss managed a bounce-back year of epic proportions, harkening back to the days of purple and gold in the Metrodome and totaling 98 receptions, 1493 yards, and 23 touchdowns. Welker? What’s 112 receptions, 1175 yards, and eight touchdowns? Paltry compared to Moss. Of minor disappointment, however, was Laurence Maroney, who likely cost you a first round pick, finishing with 835 rushing yards and six touchdowns. There’s reason for excitement for Maroney owners in keeper leagues, however, as we’ll get to later.
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Key Departures
Donte Stallworth (WR) – Stallworth signed a seven year, $35 million deal to join the Cleveland Browns. While technically Stallworth is listed as a “key departure” the Pats likely won’t even notice him missing.
Asante Samuel (CB) / Randall Gay (CB) / Eugene Wilson (S) - Come 2008, the Patriots secondary, which was a big contributor to the team's 6th ranked pass defense, will look a whole lot different with Samuel off to Philadelphia, Gay heading to the Saints, and Wilson becoming a Buc. Losing three key members of their pass coverage team in one off-season will be a true test to the Pats.
Matt Walsh (Media Relations) – Err, wait… Walsh was already gone. Nevertheless, the Patriots can’t videotape opponents anymore. (Yes, this was a needless cheap shot. No I’m not ashamed of myself for taking it.)
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Key Additions
Kelley Washington (WR) / Marcus Pollard (TE) - While Washington and Pollard were mainly added for depth, you just never know who Tom Brady will turn into the next fantasy darling. Still, if that turns out to be the case with either of these two guys, we're sure you'll be able to find them on the waiver wire.
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2008 Bruno Boys Crystal Ball
Tom Brady (QB) – Brady’s likely going to be overrated in every single fantasy league this year, but as a first round pick, I can’t really argue with anyone that takes him. I say overrated only in the sense that I doubt he throws 50 touchdowns again. Part of me doubts Moss stays healthy, which reduces the value of Brady. Part of me also thinks they’re going to run the ball a little bit more with Maroney, but there’s truly no telling with The Hoodie running the show. Going into the season, you have to project that Brady’s still good for 4000 yards and 35 touchdowns… at least.
Laurence Maroney (RB) – Maroney was supposed to have a monstrous 2008 after taking sole possession of the running back job from Corey Dillon. However, retread vagabond Sammy Morris emerged from nowhere to split carries with Maroney early in the season, only losing his role due to a chest injury suffered against the Cowboys in week 6. Further clouding Maroney’s fantasy value was the presence of Patriots’ favorite Kevin Faulk, who garnered most of the 3rd down duties and two minute drill situations due to his pass catching proficiency. Maroney didn’t help himself either with his early season groin injury costing the Minnesota product weeks 4-6. However, Maroney had a lot of positives emerge from 2007. He averaged 4.5 yards per carry, scoring all 6 of his touchdowns in the second half of the season. Additionally, the Patriots leaned on Maroney more heavily in the post-season, as he averaged 4.6 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns. For 2008, it’s important to remember that Belichick is no fool and understands full well the talented player he has in Maroney. Maroney enters camp as the unquestioned starter, and could very well realize the expectations of 2007 in 2008. If healthy, and if Brady and his receivers aren’t playing catch 50 times a game, Maroney will be a nice value at running back. If he receives 300 carries, 1250 yards and double digit touchdowns are a real possibility.
Randy Moss (WR) – As I said in my prediction for Brady, I wouldn’t be shocked if Moss was hurt at some point in 2008, but injuries can’t always be predicted. He was certainly healthy in 2007, and effectively unable to be covered. With his combination of speed, size, and athleticism, Moss is an absolute nightmare for an opposing secondary. Expect strong WR1 production again in 2008, but be careful not to overrate him. You’re not drafting 2007’s season.
Wes Welker (WR) – If you play in a point-per-reception league, Welker was an absolute monster in 2007. With 112 receptions, Welker ran wild on underneath routes as Moss sprinted down the sideline. Golden-armed Tom is renowned for his accuracy, and Welker is renowned for being the short, fast, sure-handed white guy. He’ll do it all over again in 2008, though we may not see 112 receptions. I’d say a baseline of 85 receptions, 1000 yards, and seven touchdowns is a reasonably conservative projection for Welker. He’ll be a rock-solid WR2-3, not laying a goose egg on your fantasy match-up in the vast majority of weeks, and probably being a little bit underrated in some drafts as Moss and Brady get all the glory.
Ben Watson (TE) – If a tight end produced Watson’s line (36 receptions, 389 yards, and six touchdowns) on any team other than the New England Patriots, we’d probably completely ignore him. Truly Watson’s perceived value is derived largely from the guy throwing the ball for his team, and not his true worth. Off season ankle surgery just makes him even more worthy to avoid in my book. Sure he’ll have a big week or two, and he’ll score a handful of touchdowns, but with Moss and Welker, most of the action is not going towards Benjamin. Look elsewhere unless you’re desperate, in which case you could hope Brady picks 2008 as the year to throw often to his tight end.
Stephen Gostkowski (K) - Due to the Pats efficiency on offense, Gostkowski did not have a chance to attempt too many field goals. In fact, he attempted just 24 3-pointers in 2007. Though with 74 extra points, Gostkowski was still able to land in the top 3 among fantasy kickers. Bottom line is that with the Patriots will put up points, which is always good news for a kicker.
Patriots Defense – Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like these guys are often overlooked on defense. While TomGis (that’s my new nickname for him, developed just now - like TomKat for Cruise and Katie Holmes… get it?) is chucking the pigskin all over the yard, the defense continues to rest, waiting for their next chance to generate sacks and turnovers. To me, they’re a sort of combination of the Colts turnover-generating defense with the ability to actually hold opponents from scoring three plus touchdowns sometimes. The creampuff AFC East certainly doesn’t hurt either, as I’d want almost any defense playing four games against dysfunctional Miami and the woeful New York Jets. These guys are certainly worthy of selection as a top five defense, though be aware their linebackers are aging, and the secondary will be filled with many new faces.
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Rookies to Watch
Jerod Mayo (LB) – As predicted, the Pats solidified their aging linebacking corps with the best fit for their system in the entire draft. Mayo is a heady player, possessing an outstanding combination of speed, size, and athletic ability. While they reached for him slightly, the Patriots don’t need Mayo to play immediately, and his abilities will blossom in time. Combined with the addition of Terrance Wheatley (DB), the Patriots once again used the draft to perfection, filling the two biggest needs on the defensive side of the football. Wheatley could compete to start immediately in the cornerback spot vacated by Asante Samuel, but either way will be a welcome addition to a weak link in the Pats armor. You should definitely not hesitate now to add the Patriots defense to the list of elite units available in your leagues.
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Other Team Capsules
NFC WEST - ARI I STL I SF I SEA
NFC SOUTH - ATL I CAR I NO I TB
NFC NORTH - CHI I DET I GB I MIN
NFC EAST - DAL I NYG I PHI I WAS
AFC WEST - DEN I KC I OAK I SD
AFC SOUTH - HOU I IND I JAX I TEN
AFC NORTH - BAL I CIN I CLE I PIT
AFC EAST - BUF I MIA I NE I NYJ