Should The Dodgers Trade For Juan Rivera?

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times believes that the answer to the Dodgers' lack of power is riding the pine on the Angels' bench.

"As the Dodgers try to add a power hitter without subtracting from their young core, they need not look beyond the visiting dugout today.

They'll find Juan Rivera there, at the end of the Angels' bench, buried under the weight of Gary Matthews Jr.'s contract."

Obviously the Dodgers have to trade the Angels something back, so who does Mr. Shaikin recommend?

"The Dodgers could play Rivera, Matt Kemp and (fingers crossed) a healthy and productive Andruw Jones in the outfield. Russell Martin, with a .407 on-base percentage through Friday's games, could lead off until Rafael Furcal gets back.

The Angels love collecting arms, preferably power arms, so give them their choice of middle reliever Cory Wade or Javy Guerra, a fireballing Class A reliever with erratic control."

Okay, first let's deal with the suggestion that the Dodgers actually want Rivera.

Rivera has a career OPS of .800, and has put up an OPS higher than .800 twice in his career. After bouncing around in part-time roles, he broke out in 2006, putting up an OPS of .887 and slugging 23 home runs. I'm sure if the Dodgers decided to deal for Rivera, that's the version they'll hope they're getting.

The problem is that Rivera isn't exactly a proven commodity. Since he broke his leg last year, Rivera just hasn't played with any type of regularity. Even more concerning is that he's never had more than 500 at-bats in a season, and has only eclipsed 400 at-bats once. Granted, the lack of opportunity is arguably not any fault of his own, but with Dodgers chock full of injury prone players that can't handle a full season's load, do they really want to take on another risk? The answer to that question ultimately lies in what they give up to get him, and who Rivera replaces.

As far as who Shaikin suggests the Dodgers trade to Angels, i'm not in love with either of them. Wade is a decent middle reliever, but he has limited upside, and might end up being a journeyman type when all is said and done. Guerra is a fireballing 22-year-old with solid minor league strikeout rates (8.44 K/9), but also with serious control issues (5.76 BB/9). I like his live arm as much as the next guy, but the reason why i'm not very high on Guerra is because his control is actually regressing as the years have passed, something that's not a very good sign for his projection as a major leaguer. More importantly, would the Angels even accept either of these guys for Rivera? I'm not a mind reader, but I doubt they'd pull a trigger on a deal like this in the first place.

Moving on to the issue of who Rivera replaces in the outfield, Shaikin seems to favor moving both Juan Pierre and Andre Ethier permanently to the bench. I don't have any reservations about gluing Pierre's ass to the dugout floor because he's simply a vastly inferior player to Rivera...and to just about every other half decent regular outfielder in the major leagues. My real question, however, is about Ethier, and why he's always discarded as trash in these trade conversations. In his short career, Ethier has exactly the same amount of years with an OPS above .800 as Rivera: two. He also has exactly the same amount of seasons with over 400 at-bats: one. Sure, Andre might not have the power ceiling that Rivera does, but he puts up comparable numbers. More importantly, he has no injury history and he's cost controlled for the next 3 years (Rivera is a free agent in 2009).

Overall, I just can't see this as anything that works, both because I doubt the Angels accept the trade, and because I don't think it helps the Dodgers much. Essentially, Rivera is a two month rental, and if he does well in his run with the Dodgers, he'll demand millions in the off-season. On the other hand, Ethier is stuck in arbitration for the next 3 years regardless of what he does, so whatever money he gets, he'll have earned it. I understand that Rivera has the potential to be a slight upgrade in left field, but there's simply too many questionable factors (Healthy? Full-time player? Better than Ethier?) to justify any upside he may have.