Well, I guess the reverberations of a CC Sabathia start in Wisconsin made their way down to Chicago yesterday afternoon. The Cubs landed the oft injured, but very talented Rich Harden, along with relief pitcher Chad Gaudin for a bevy of young players- P Sean Gallagher, IF/OF Eric Patterson, OF Matt Murton and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson. On the outside, this may look like a pretty straightforward move by the Cubs to shore up their rotation in light of the move Milwaukee made on Monday. In the end, perhaps Harden can stay healthy and help pitch the Cubs to the division title and then on to success in the post season. I don’t doubt that the Cubs have what it takes to win the NL Central, but I do not think Rich Harden will be the catalyst for the Cubs in the second half. Let’s throw this out there for starters: Harden has made eleven consecutive starts for the first time since 2005. Not a good start for optimism in Chicago, but I disdain the Cubs, so I’ll keep going. Second, for a guy who usually hovers in the 93-95 MPH range on his fastball, Harden was consistently throwing only in the high 80’s in his last start. Cause for concern, methinks.
On some level, I can respect a team that throws caution to the wind and just goes for it. The Cubs haven’t won a pennant since 1908, and this is possibly the best chance they’ve had in decades to make the World Series. The trade for Harden and Gaudin may appear to be just what the Cubs needed, but I wouldn’t go so far as to agree. These are two nice pieces that are being added to an already talented club. Just on the pitching side of things, the Cubs rank fifth in K/BB in the NL, fourth in K/9, third in ERA and lead the NL in BAA. Source. Offensively, the Cubs lead the NL in runs by 25 over the next closest club, and are OPS’ing at an impressive clip of .805. Source. Take their 482 runs scored and compare that to their 376 runs allowed, and they are the only team in baseball to have a run differential of more than 100. Which leads me to this conclusion: before either Rich Harden or Chad Gaudin can throw a pitch for the Chicago Cubs, they may in fact be the best team in baseball. Sure, I’m overlooking a lot that goes into measuring how good a team is, but run differential is usually a good indicator of a team’s record, and record is usually a good indicator of how good a team is. In getting these two pitchers, the Cubs have given up two toolsy outfielders, a pitcher who has been asked for by many GM’s in past trade negotiations with Chicago, and a minor league catcher with some pop. From Oakland’s perspective, Billy Beane can pair his new arrivals with an already youthful group headlined by Ryan Sweeney and Carlos Gonzalez. I’d be worried too, if I were Chicago about why the A’s would be so quick to deal Rich Harden when he’s “healthy” and the team is still in the hunt for a postseason birth. I understand striking while the iron is hot, but usually as teams approach the trade deadline, they become more and more anxious to make moves, which usually sweetens the deal for a potential seller. Billy Beane of all people knows this, which is why his early sale of his best trading chip should cause Cubs fans to think twice before giving this trade their seal of approval.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Beane strikes again
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6 comments:
Basically this is a Cub bet that in the remainder of 2008 and 2009 an injury prone Harden will more likely pan out than an improved Gallagher. The plus is that they got another solid right hand in the bullpen too.
Essentially the Cubs don't need and can't use the other three players they dealt to win the World Series in the next year or two. Murton may or may not wind up being a perpetual utility man but after two years, he wasn't going to find any playing time with Edmonds, Reed Johnson, Mark DeRosa, and Mike Fontenot playing. The same goes for Eric Patterson. He may pan out too but the Cubs have Felix Pie and Micah Hoffpauir in the minors they can bring up to fill their roles if needed and that they are high on. And Catcher Josh Donaldson is hitting .217 in single A while Rookie Geo Soto is starting in the all-star game. Donaldson would not see Wrigley for the next decade. Enough said about that.
So the Cubs have the team to win in the next year or two with or without Harden or Gallagher. They certainly can win without the three other players they dealt. They are simply gambling on Harden staying healthy and the ante is the upside of a talented Sean Gallagher...and if Gallagher pans out in a few years they can just go outbid Oakland in the Free Agent market anyway.
All valid points. Except you're ignoring the fundamental claim that Evan made: Why was Beane so quick to deal Harden with so much time before the deadline?
This team was good enough to win the world series without Harden, but that was with a number four/five pitcher in Gallagher. If Harden does go down -- which why wouldn't you hedge your bet on that, especially given his likely dead arm -- then all the Cubs have done in this deal is weaken their rotation in the short term, while forcing themselves to spend more in the long run. I'm not sure who'd they would move into the rotation, but I'm confident it'd be a downgrade.
Sean Marshall will go if Harden doesn't work out. Marshall and Gallagher are at about the same level at this point in their careers. Pinella had just moved Gallagher to the bullpen and moved Marshall to the starting rotation before Gallagher was traded anyway. Marshall gave up one run in six at St. Louis and three in seven against the White Sox, both quality starts against two strong teams on the road.
one more thing to your point about the long run. We have been waiting a hundred years for a world series win and sixty three years for a world series appearance. the long run needs to end some time and now is our best chance. There certainly is a risk that Harden doesn't work out. If he does the Cubs have a significantly better chance of winning this year than if they kept Gallagher.
"the long run needs to end some time and now is our best chance."
Good point.
Chid:
Your points are well taken. All I'm saying is that with the Cubs history of having pitchers with arm problems (Wood and Prior) I hope their GM thought long and hard about the pretty big risk he's taking by making this trade. No doubt a healthy Rich Harden gives the Cubs a better chance of winning than if Sean Gallagher were on the team instead, but I just wonder if Hendry would have made this move even if Milwaukee had not traded for CC. Either way, I hope for your sake it works out. You sound like a knowledgeable fan who really cares about his Cubs.
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