Trade analysis: Who's on the move?
I watched the Marlins unravel in Chicago, where a misplayed ball by Josh Willingham in left field helped spur the Cubs to victory. I bet I wasn't the only one chuckling aloud when Chip Carey questioned how his grandfather would have handled the name of reliever Jeff Samardzija.
The nightcap on yesterday's schedule was yet another Yankees-Red Sox battle, which is always entertaining in and of itself, but it had been spiced up by the specter of the trade deadline. The surging Yankees made a move ahead of the weekend to make a push in the final two months. The Red Sox are not only seeking to improve the squad, but they're trying to excise a recurring clubhouse nightmare.
We've already discussed the earlier deals involving CC Sabathia and Rich Harden. Let's circle back to the recently completed activity.
The Yankees sent four minor leaguers to Pittsburgh in exchange for hot-hitting Xavier Nady and reliever Damaso Marte. The deal has been widely criticized as a "fleecing," as Nady and Marte were two of the most sought-after trade candidates. The consensus is the Pirates could have held out for more major league-ready talent. What did they get? Jose Tabata is a highly-regarded outfielder who demonstrates good plate discipline, and who at 19 years of age, has plenty of time to develop. Tabata will be fun to watch alongside Nate McLouth and top prospect Andrew McCutchen down the line. Jeff Karstens, who appeared in 15 games for the Yankees during the past two years, will join the Pirates rotation this coming weekend against the Cubs. Karstens pitched to a high 5.65 ERA with a rough 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ross Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen will spend time in the minor leagues, but may get a callup with the big club come September.
Let's look at the other side of the deal. Fantasy owners who snagged Nady early in this breakout season are licking their chops at the thought of ridiculous RBI possibilities over the course of these final two months. Nady went 0-for-7 in two starts for the Yankees against the Red Sox, but just wait. He's batting .317 with runners in scoring position with two outs (.308 w/ RISP overall), and Nady will certainly find himself replete with such opportunities, even batting deep in the Yankees lineup. A-Rod owns a huge .406 OBP, with Jason Giambi close behind at .394. Nady's career year continues in pinstripes.
Owners who claimed Marte when Matt Capps went down with his shoulder woes received great production ahead of the trade. Marte converted four straight save opportunities for the Pirates before the deal was consummated. He's averaged three strikeouts per walk with a strong 1.15 WHIP, so Marte still offers some help to fantasy owners out of the pen. And, given his place in Joe Girardi's bullpen, he may vulture a win or two along the way. Just don't expect saves, as Mariano Rivera is seemingly always ready to hear "Enter Sandman" over the loudspeakers.
Back in Pittsburgh, you can get onboard the John Grabow bandwagon. He assumes the closer role with Marte's departure and should hold the role until Capps returns to the squad next month. Grabow has pitched to a 3.25 ERA with two strikeouts per walk this season.
As expected, the Dodgers moved to improve their meager offensive production (26th in runs scored at 4.2 per game). Casey Blake comes over from the Indians to provide some pop at third base, where Blake DeWitt and Andy LaRoche combined for seven home runs and 41 RBI while batting a composite .248. Blake's 11 home runs tie him for second-most on this squad, his 58 RBI tie him for first, and his .290 average ranks fourth among regulars (Loney, Martin and Kemp). Most importantly, Blake proved to be a good hitter in the clutch in Cleveland. He's batted .393 this season with runners in scoring position, and 19 of his 58 RBI came with two outs (he's batted .319 in such situations). Those in NL-only leagues already have their waiver claims in for Blake's services. Owners in mixed leagues might take a look, as he'll certainly have ample RBI opportunities hitting alongside the aforementioned three players and the surging Andre Ethier. Don't forget, Juan Pierre was also activated from the disabled list this weekend and should help jumpstart things on the basepaths.
Fantasy owners received a gift on the waiver wire when reliever Jon Rauch took over the closing role in Washington. Rauch converted 17 of 21 save opportunities for the Nationals while posting 6.57 strikeouts per walk. Alas, the imposing 6-foot-11 right-hander will undertake the set-up role upon his arrival in Arizona. The move decimates his fantasy value short-term, but I wouldn't be so quick with the drop button. Unlike the rock-steady production we've talked about with Rivera and the Yankees, Brandon Lyon has struggled at times recently (he's blown two of his last four save opportunities), and Lyon's history suggests that Rauch may see more than a few save opportunities down the road. In the interim, fantasy owners should place Rauch at the back-end of their fantasy pen, taking the benefits of his low WHIP, solid strikeout total and the occasional vulture win (he's won 16 games since the start of the 2006 season). If a short-sighted owner cut him loose upon hearing of the deal, work to snag him off the wire.
Other big-name players who could be on the move
Manny Ramirez is chirping again in Boston, and there's some rumor, conjecture and speculation on the wind about him heading out of town. Perhaps there's a scenario in which a player like Mark Teixeira or Adam Dunn heads to Boston, but those are the only sluggers where the power production would make sense. Ultimately, I believe that Ramirez finishes the year in Boston, offering his usual RBI production as the Red Sox battle for the AL East crown. We can begin the speculation about the mercurial outfielder's new home come October.As for Teixeira and Dunn, I do believe that they'll both be moved. The Angels are the most logical destination for Teixiera, who need some pop in that lineup to complement Vladimir Guerrero. The pitching staff is set, and a move for a big bat could push them over the top. Casey Kotchman has played quite well this season (.288, 11 home runs and 52 RBI), but why not make the big splash? The division is in-hand. It's time to plan for October. Dunn's future is a bit cloudier following the deal that sent Nady to New York.
The Mariners have been a complete and utter disaster this season, and it appears that several of the team's well-known players will be on the move. Jarrod Washburn is most likely heading to New York, with just the principals to be decided. Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibañez and even Erik Bedard might be dealt ahead of the deadline. There's nowhere to go but up, right?
George Sherrill, Ken Griffey, Jr. and a host of other names are floating on the wind with the trade deadline just 72 hours away. I'll be back to recap the activity on Friday.
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