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 | | Posted on: 8/13/2008 |
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| Written by Matt Falkow |
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Posted on 7/7/2008 8:20:55 PM |
Often times, the NFL usually takes a back burner to baseball and basketball regarding free agency. However, this year saw a number of big name players change teams, some within the same division. An offense in football is sometimes very complicated for new players to learn, which often affects their fantasy value. Here's a look at some of those big transactions, and what they mean for your fantasy draft.
RB Julius Jones to Seattle (from Dallas)
Jones whined about not being the featured back in Dallas, and now has his shot. Seattle said goodbye to former MVP RB Shaun Alexander, and will bring in Jones to replace him. Jones compiled 788 yards and 2 TDs for the Cowboys during Marion Barber’s breakout season last year, but we must remember that he is very quick and catches the ball well. He goes to a good situation in Seattle, where he will be the starting RB at the beginning of the season. The biggest downside is that bulky RB TJ Duckett was also signed by Seattle, and if healthy, should eat up those red zone carries. Rookie RB Justin Forsett was drafted and will get a chance at some touches, plus RB Maurice Morris is still hanging around. Jones will have the chance to take the starting job and run with it, but all of the company in the backfield will make it hard. As of right now, he should be considered a RB3 – Jones could easily rack up 1,000 total yards, but at this point, touchdown opportunities are still in question.
RB Michael Turner to Atlanta (from San Diego)
Many are high on Turner, but he is still an enigma. Sure, he showed flashes of greatness in cleanup duty for the Chargers behind RB LaDainian Tomlinson, but now, Turner be the featured back for the Falcons. He will be the starter from Day 1, and only has to worry about RB Jerious Norwood stealing some 3rd down touches. Turner is not necessarily the fastest guy on the field, but he is strong and solid and has all of the tools to be a productive fantasy back. The Falcons have rookie QB Matt Ryan at the helm, so Turner can expect a large amount of defenders in the box. Dunn and Norwood combined for 1,333 yards and 5 TDs rushing last season for the Falcons. Atlanta has a new regime and desperately wants a new image in the wake of the Mike Vick debacle – Turner will be a big part of that. He still doesn’t have much publicity, and would be a steal as a RB2 in upcoming fantasy drafts. He could easily end up the year as a low- to mid-tier RB1. Expect 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs.
WR Bernard Berrian to Minnesota (from Chicago)
Berrian is a speedy deep threat who is not afraid to go across the middle. He is usually reliable and has made acrobatic catches during his time in Chicago. Last year, he recorded 70 catches for 948 yards and 5 TDs with the “Killer G’s” (Grossman and Griese) throwing to him. Berrian now moves within the division over to the Vikings. The quarterback situation isn’t exactly rosy over there either. QB Tarvaris Jackson has some skill, but is very young and raw. The A+ rushing game will aid both Jackson and Berrian. WR Bobby Wade was the Vikings leading receiver last season. He managed to grab 54 balls for 647 yards and 3 TDs, however, Berrian will easily eclipse those numbers no matter how bad Jackson may be. If WR Sidney Rice improves and Wade stays steady, the Vikes could wind up with a potent offense. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how quickly Berrian adjusts to his new home. He now plays in a dome, so that ups his fantasy value a bit, but until we see a couple of preseason games, he should be considered a lower-tiered WR2/WR3. If Jackson matures, there is no reason Berrian cannot nab 65-75 balls for 1,000 yards and 7 TDs.
WR Isaac Bruce to San Francisco (from St. Louis)
Bruce reunites with Mike Martz in San Francisco, but unfortunately will not have QB Marc Bulger throwing to him anymore. Instead, how about a combo of Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and JT O’Sullivan? Bruce has battled injuries, but still has a little bit of steam left. He will likely go undrafted in 8-10 team fantasy leagues, but keep an eye on the Niners offense. Bruce is worth a roster spot in 12-16 team leagues, but do not expect much.
WR DJ Hackett to Carolina (from Seattle)
Hackett was everyone’s favorite sleeper last year, but ankle injuries kept him out for pretty much all of 2007. When healthy, he is a fast and reliable receiver who can fill up the stat sheet at anytime. He moves on to Carolina where he will pair with Steve Smith and Mushin Muhammad. Muhammad is past his prime, and Smith is looking to regain elite status, so where does Hackett fit in? If QB Jake Delhomme can stay on the field, there should be plenty of balls for everyone. Hackett will not face double teams and could easily approach 1,000 yards and 7 scores. The Panthers are a sleeper team and Hackett is likely not on anyone’s radar right now. Keep an eye on him during the preseason – he will be solid, at worst, as a WR3 in larger fantasy leagues, and could be a nice steal toward the end of the middle rounds.
WR Darrell Jackson to Denver (from San Francisco)
Jackson was brought into San Francisco last season to add another dimension to a 49ers offense that was destined for a huge breakout – and then he posted only 497 yards receiving with 3 TDs in a lackluster campaign. Now, Jackson goes to Denver where he will have an opportunity to start opposite WR Brandon Marshall, and have rising QB Jay Cutler throwing to him. Jackson is very eager to prove that he is not washed up and still has something left in the tank. If he can stay healthy, he will surprise many this year, since this transaction has been very under the radar so far. Do not draft him too high, but consider Jackson a very low-risk WR4 with WR2 potential. If he stays on the field, I expect 800 yards and 7 scores.
WR Bryant Johnson from Arizona (to San Francisco)
Johnson played third fiddle to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in Arizona, yet still threw together some nice numbers. He now moves to the Bay and will be starting next to another newcomer in WR Isaac Bruce. Though the San Fran quarterback situation is a mess, the good news is that Johnson will be a more featured part of this offense than he was in Arizona. The bad news is that with no other real WR threats, Johnson see plenty of double coverage and draw the opponent’s best defender. He is worth a look in large leagues as a low-tier receiving option, but monitor the Niners in preseason, as Mike Martz is known to work miracles (See: Shaun McDonald).
WR Jerry Porter to Jacksonville (from Oakland)
Porter was never a happy camper in Oakland. He certainly has the skills, and now in Jacksonville, should have the right frame of mind to be a very good player and teammate. QB David Garrard now has a reliable target, something that he has been searching for since taking the reigns under center, and Porter is in store for a nice season. The Jags love to run, but this addition will make them vertical as well. Garrard improved as the 2007 season went on, with multiple touchdown passes in his last four games… and we all remember the two memorable playoff games that the Jags played. Like Darrell Jackson, Porter’s new home has been under the radar. He is a safe pick as a low-tier WR2/WR3 with big=time potential. 800-1,000 yards and 8+ TDs are not a reach.
WR Donte Stallworth to Cleveland (from New England)
Stallworth goes from one amazing passing offense to another. He had 46 catches for 697 yards and 3 TDs last season with the Pats. The Browns have big-time WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. to grab most of the receptions, but Stallworth will still get his share of looks. Stallworth will start and will stretch defenses, complimenting Edwards. The Browns play a pretty soft schedule against the pass, and will be competing for a division title. Expect a slight upgrade in his numbers, which would make Stallworth a very solid WR3. Should Edwards or Winslow go down, Stallworth instantly becomes a strong WR2.
WR Javon Walker to Oakland (from Denver)
Javon Walker is a very curious case. He had one superstar year with Brett Favre in Green Bay, tears his ACL, goes to Denver, has one very good year, has a close friend and teammate pass away in his arms, gets hurt for most of last season, gets signed by Oakland to a big contract, then gets robbed and beaten up in Las Vegas. It has been quite the journey for Walker, and where his head and body are at will play a large factor in his productivity. The Raiders are definitely trying to put a winning team together. The defense was already solid, and was then strenghtened with the addition of CB DeAngelo Hall. The offense drafted the multi-talented RB Darren McFadden, handed the reigns to QB JaMarcus Russell, and signed Walker/Drew Carter to shore-up the WR corps to join Ronald Curry. When healthy, they all have the ability to do major damage. What it comes down to is that the whole offense will depend on how Russell plays. As for Walker, if he can stay healthy, he will be effective this season. He is big and if his knees allow, Walker will still be considered a deep threat. The running game should be solid, so that will take some pressure off, but do not make the mistake of drafting Walker too high. Because of his injury history and the uncertainty at QB, expect 500 yards and 3 TDs as the basement, and 1,100 yards with 9 TDs as the ceiling. With that in mind, draft him as a WR3/WR4 for now, and you may be pleasantly surprised by the potential upside.
TE Alge Crumpler to Tennessee (from Atlanta)
Crumpler battled a knee injury last year and still managed 444 yards and 5 TDs from the anemic Falcon offense. He still has a lot left in the tank, and now moves to the Titans, where he instantly will become QB Vince Young’s favorite target. We all know that Young has the wheels, and I expect him to find Crumpler for several red zone TDs as he scrambles. The Titans like to run, but Crumpler will get his share. Young struggled last season, throwing only 9 TDs to guys named Roydell Williams and Justin Gage. The change of scenery should light a fire under Crumpler, and he will team with Young to form a potent combo. After the big name tight ends are off the draft board, wait a few rounds and grab Crumpler. I predict a Top 10, possibly a Top 5, finish – 700 yards and 9+ TD’s sound about right.
K Josh Brown to St. Louis (from Seattle)
It’s very rare that a kicker changing teams would be considered news, but Brown is an exception. The always-solid Brown kicked 7 field goals over 45 yards last year, including three over 50 in rainy Seattle. He now not only gets go play in a dome, but also with an offense that should not have problems moving the ball. The Rams do not have a big red zone target other than RB Steven Jackson out of the backfield, so lots of field goals will be available. Brown should finish the year as a Top 10 kicker. |
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