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Posted by Jeff Rosenfield in The Clubhouse
August 22nd, 2008 at 4:52 pm ET |
As we head into the home stretch of the 2008 season, and talk turns to the potential award winners in each league, I have been thinking about some of the surprise performances of the year, and one thought keeps popping into my head:
which of these players/teams will be 2008’s one year wonders?
Every sport has its own version of OYWs, but none of the Big Four seems to produce such a memorable load of potential greats, only to see them flame out quicker than Macaulay Caulkin, than major league baseball does.
Joe Charboneau, Brady Anderson, Ken Hamlin, Mark Fidrych, and more recently Carlos Pena, Adrian Beltre and Barry Zito are just a few examples I can think of, and there are probably hundreds more.
This year I found is no exception, as there appears to be numerous qualified candidates for OYW status. Right now these players/teams look like they are going to produce at an epic pace for the foreseeable future, but for some reason I believe they may be one and done as far as their prolific contributions to the sport are concerned.
So without further adieu ado, I present my list of 2008 MLB One Year Wonders. Obviously these are just my personal opinions, and I may be completely wrong, but I’m sure none of the commenters or my colleagues will disagree with me.
Carlos Quentin, LF, White Sox .294, 35HR, 97RBI, .398OBP, .585SLG, .983OPS
Quentin is having an MVP-caliber season, leading the AL in homers while ranking in the top 5 of every other major offensive category. Acquired from the Diamondbacks prior to this season, Quentin has burst on the scene to lead the surprising Chisox to the top of the AL Central, after totaling just 14 homers in 395 career ABs prior to this year. He’s in line for a major contract after the season, but something tells me he’s more like the 2004 version of Beltre than the next Albert Pujols.
Joe Saunders, SP, Angels 14-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.19WHIP, 78Ks, .244 BAA
The lefty came into this season with a career record of 15-8 in 33 starts over three seasons, but he jumped out to an 11-3 mark in late June to shoot his name to the forefront of Cy Young candidates. A cool streak (3-2 in nine starts since) has slowed his roll, and without a dominant out pitch or overpowering stuff, he’s destined to live down to this scouting report: “Solid mid-to-late rotation starter”, i.e. not an ace.
Ryan Ludwick, OF, Cardinals .306, 31HRs, 94RBI, .380OBP, .609SLG, .989OPS
I know Andrea’s gonna rip me for this one, and I’m not saying his story isn’t an uplifting one (career minor leaguer guts it out and makes it big), but there’s no way anyone can say he will follow up this All Star season with a similar one. I mean he had 28 homers combined in parts of five seasons prior to 2008, and although his production has ensured he will stay in the majors for a while, I highly doubt he will be able to replicate this magical season.
Cliff Lee, SP, Indians 18-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.08WHIP, 141K, 26BB, ,249BAA
Let me say one thing about Lee - he’s a decent major league pitcher who has had success (18-5 in 2005) in the past and is a solid addition to any rotation. That being said, I don’t think there’s any way he duplicates the phenomenal performance he’s had this season, one that has him being the leading the Cy Young contender and in which he didn’t lose his second game until July 6th. Next season, he’ll probably be 14-11.
Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers .304, 29HRs, 115RBI, .369OBP, .553SLG, .921OBP
Once again let me say that this five-tool wunderkind, who has been able to produce despite spending four years in drug-induced purgatory, should be able to put up respectable numbers for years to come, provided he stays clean. But already you can see what the effects of playing a full season are doing to him (6 HRs, 19RBI in 30 games since the AS break), and combine the pressures of remaining sober with the physical toll of playing 150+ games, and it’s not out of the question that this is the best season Hamilton will ever have.
Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Rays 13-6, 4.37ERA, 1.31WHIP, 95K, 27BB, .284BAA
At the start of the season no one thought this unassuming righty would be the wins leader for the team with the best record in the league come mid-August, yet that’s exactly where the 25-year-old stands right now. In fact, with Kazmir, Garza, Shields and Edwin Jackson anchoring the rotation, Sonny was considered to be the 5th starter at best, if he made the roster. Not only did he make it, be he jumped out to a 10-3 record before a recent decline, but with all those studs on the staff, he should be the fifth banana again next year.
Tampa Bay Rays, 77-49, 4.5 gm lead in AL East, 2nd best rec. in ML, best home rec. in ML
I would be remiss if I didn’t include the biggest surprise of the 2008 season on this list, the miraculous Rays of Tampa Bay. Relegated to league doormat after 10 years of dismal baseball, the Rays have captured the hearts of fans (and certain B&C columnists) with their storybook season.
But as I mentioned in a comment the other day, their house of cards is bound to come crashing down at some point, but if they do somehow manage to be this year’s Rockies and make it to the Fall Classic, I guarantee they will be right back where they belong next season - looking up at the true powerhouses of the AL East, Boston and New York.
There you have it. Now have at it (or should I say at me).
Photo courtesy of Bakemoney2000 flickr
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I’m a regular B&C’s reader that has never had reason to respond negatively to a story. Apologies in advance, but…
Carlos Pena a one-year (’07) wonder? His ‘08 numbers don’t stand out among the elite hitters but he has more homeruns than any other A.L. first baseman and has made huge contributions to his front running Tampa Bay team. There isn’t a MLB that doesn’t respect his talent and very few that wouldn’t welcome him into their clubhouse.
Pena’s teammate Andy Sonnanstine has done nothing but win since joining the Rays. His high ERA is not reflective of the improvements he’s made since becoming a big leaguer. He’s a smart kid that has learned to to adjust his game to a hitters weakness. He’s often been described as a young Greg Maddux, and for good reason. To suggest that he doesn’t have a chance for continued success is laughable.
To top everything off your “guarantee” that the ‘09 Rays will drop to the A.L. East basement because the Rockies dropped off the planet after a World Series berth last year? Exactly where to you find similarities? The Rays may fold under the pressure of a first-time pennant run, but with the exception of a 7 game slide immediately before the all-star break they’ve played consistent baseball through 126 games. The Rockies, playing in a horsesh-t N.L. division, got on a hot streak (20+ straight wins) and managed to get themselves into a position to be slaughtered by a superior Red Sox team.
The funniest part of your story was the following: “Right now these players/teams look like they are going to produce at an epic pace for the FORESEEABLE future, BUT FOR SOME REASON I believe they may be one and done as far as their prolific contributions to the sport are concerned.
“But for some reason”?
Making mention of a few one-year wonders is not evidence enough to suggest that anything you write about is “guaranteed” to happen. The players mentioned may not go on to have prolific careers but there’s absolutely no reason to believe (at this time) that they won’t continue to be highly productive players.
By the way. Cliff Lee is a +.500 pitcher in his career and Josh Hamilton, despite his obvious problems has been wildly successful in both leagues during his two seasons.
Jeff,
I appreciate you reading the column and providing constructive criticism to my points. I would like to make a few points in defense of my selections, and if you don’t see why I said what I said then I guess we can agree to disagree.
Carlos Pena was a “can’t miss” prospect when he came into the league in 2001, but after 6 mediocre seasons with 5 teams, he was almost out of baseball after a brief, lackluster stint with the Bososx in 2006. He followed that up with his 46 homer breakout season last year with the Rays, parlayed it into a huge deal, then proceeded to shit the bed for the better part of 08. True he has rebounded and made his power numbers respectable since the ASB, but I doubt he will ever match his 07 production again, hence the mention here.
Sonnanstine, like I said, was questionable to even make the Rays rotation coming into the season, and has been considered by many to be the biggest surprise of their staff so far. I don’t believe that saying he will not duplicate the numbers he’s put up again, especially as a 4th or 5th starter, is laughable, but probable.
The feeling I get about the Rays comes from the fact that they are having one of those “do no wrong, everything comes up roses” seasons, a la the Rockies at the end of 07. Players get injured, no one is having a career year, games they used to lose they win with ease, the type of stuff that happens once in a blue moon. Do I think they will fall back to the AL East cellar? No. But the division is so tough, and they are enjoying such a miraculous turnaround, there is no where to go but down, especially if they win the division. To me it feels like a one and done ride, but like I stated in the intro, I may be wrong.
As for Lee and Hamilton, I qualified my comments by saying that they are solid players, just that they will not reach the heights of 08 again, either.
Like I said, these are just my opinions, and the only guarantee I made was about the Rays. I have been watching baseball for a long time, and many times it happens that a player or team that breaks onto the scene with a huge year falls back down to Earth soon thereafter. I might be proven wrong, and I plan on following up this piece next season, but they’re just my opinions, so take them for what they’re worth.
Kevin Youkilis - 1B - Red Sox — This career .279 hitter had a career high of 16 home runs, 83 RBI’s and an OPS of low .800’s before this season. In short, he can best be described as a pedestrian major league player. In a season in the Red Sox lineup where Youkilis has had the fortune of having over half his at bats with runners on base, he is having a Tommy Herr-type career year. A notorious early count hitter (.470 average on the first two pitches of the count, .269 with three pitches or more), as soon as MLB pitchers realize this and start feeding him a steady diet of early count sliders, ol’ Butt Wiggler will return to his normal servicable production as an infielder.
will return to his normal servicable production as a Gold Glove infielder.
//fixed
But you bring up a valid point, AA, as it could be argued that Youk is having a career year. Yet he has always been a high on base guy (career .385 OBP), has always hit a lot of doubles (77 in the previous 2 seasons) which are turning into homers this season, and he is very patient at the plate (2nd in MLB in pitcher per PA since coming into the league).
In fact his stats have gone up each of the last three years in which he has been a regular starter. To me that says he is making a natural progression as a hitter, and although you may be right that he might not duplicate his stats from this year again, I would hardly consider him a “pedestrian player” or a one year wonder.
It’s “ado.” Not “adieu.”
Thank you, 3R.
“I would hardly consider him a “pedestrian player” or a one year wonder.”
Guess he plays for the “correct” team, right, Rose
Well, that might have something to do with it!
Jeff,
I’m familiar with Carlos Pena’s history but also feel that he’s turned his career around. There’s never been any expectation that Pena will equal his ‘08 numbers, but by season’s end he will have hit 70+ homers over the course of less than two seasons with the Rays. Now that he’s established himself his early career struggles should not be reason to believe he won’t have continued success. He’s also one heck’uva a first baseman and team leader.
The only reason Andy Sonnanstine was a rotation question mark was because of the lack of options remaining on a couple of other Rays pitching prospects. Sonnastine may never be a top of the rotation guy but there’s no question that he is one of the guttiest pitcher in the American League. He’ll probably continue to be a guy that gives up a lot of hits, but he’ll also be a starter that will consistently walk off the mound after completing 7 or 8 innings with his team still competing for a win.
You mentioned in your response was the Rays are winning games “with ease”. Actually they’re winning close games they’d have lost in years past. I’m not stat savvy enough to give you a number but I’ll bet they’re near the top of the league in one-run and walk-off wins. I don’t need to be a stat geek to know that good ball clubs win a high percentage of their close games.
The Rays have good young players throughout their organization, smart coaches and a management group that is proving that they all know how to play as a team. The Rays may never be year-to-year powerhouse but there’s nothing to suggest that they won’t be an upper echelon team in the AL East for years to come.
In the words of the great Andrew Dice Clay… “And that’s what I think!”
Andy Sonnanstine = Bob Walk
Similar in style, performance, and hopefully post-season success
Hard to disagree with that comparison: Andy Sonnanstine = Bob Walk = really shitty pitchers. What I’d like to know is why Rose included a starter with a ERA+ of 98 with the studs of 2008 like he somehow belongs in the group. I guess he did to expose a most obvious OYW, but just cause the guy was handed a few wins (but otherwise is league average) doesn’t mean he’s having a great season.
Lee = ERA+ 180
Sonnastine = ERA+ 98
Something is wrong with that picture.
I also doubt Youk is this good. I believe his newfound power more than his batting avg, but then again it’s not as if he’s killing the ball; he’s on track for less than 30 HR’s. He’ll be clutch and a good defender for years though.
The reason I included Sonnanstine on the list is not because he was having such a spectacular season, but because he was doing something no one thought he would do - be the wins leader of an extremely talented rotation. Of all the people on the list, he is having the least remarkable season as far as stats, but possibly the most remarkable in terms of expectations.
As far as the Rays winning games with ease, I meant they are winning games in ways they never have in the past: come from behind, walk off, close contests, blowouts, etc. The feeling I get is a “stars aligning” kind of miracle season, one that will be hard to duplicate, especially when they go from being considered doormats to legitamate threats in the coming years. It’s only going to get harder for them now that they’ve raised the bar.
Let’s talk stats that matter, Dirty. You are talking esoteric inventions with the ol’ reliable ERA+ stat. I’m sure there are one or two tools who are interested. Sonnanstine has more wins that all but one pitcher on the Red Sox. That’s called SCOREBOARD!!!
“Hard to disagree with that comparison: Andy Sonnanstine = Bob Walk = really shitty pitchers.”
Interesting, Bob Walk in his last 8 years full time in the majors only had an ERA over 4 twice and finished with a career record of 105-81.
Oh, and he was 9-4 career in the post-season. Really shitty…
I believe that’s SCOREBOARD for you, AA!
My, my. Tag team!
Are we talking about Robert Vernon Walk? because if we are he was not 9-4 in postseason play. He was 1-4 and like I said: shitty, as in below league average for his entire career. Look it up.
As far as Sonnanstine; if he’s going to be good one day, great. But what I know of him today is the AL East loves padding their stats against him (although they do that with a lot of guys), he’s young (especially young pitchers), and his stats indicate he’s more dependant on his team for wins than an average starter.
4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .287 BAA, 97 ERA+: He doesn’t belong on the same map with Quentin, Saunders, Ludwick, Hamilton, and especially Lee. You can’t be a OYW without the Wonder. He can be a OY though, or even a YO. I’ll give him that.
Oops…we were both looking at the wrong stats, Dirty. Bob Walk was 3-1 in the postseason with a save. That’s still SCOREBOARD!!!