Another Cubs Blog :: Savoring Every Moment

September battles for playoff roster spots

Posted by shawndgoldman on 08/23/08 at 12:33 PM • 38 Comments

This is what the Cubs did for the 2007 playoffs:

Starters (3): Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill
Relievers (8): Ryan Dempster, Howry, Marmol, Wuertz, Hart, Eyre, Kerry Wood, Marquis.
Infielders (6): Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno.
Outfielders (6): Jones, Pie, Murton, Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Daryle Ward.
Catchers (2): Soto, Jason Kendall.

If they go with a similar distribution of talent this year, there are only a few spots left on the roster.

If they go with 3 starters, there’s no question they go with Zambrano, Harden, and Dempster. The only question here is if Lilly is used as a starter or out of the bullpen.

That leaves room for 7 or 8 relievers (depending on Lilly). Wood, Marmol, Samardzija, Cotts, Gaudin, and Marshall are locks. That leaves Lilly, Marquis, Howry, Guzman, and any other callups fighting for two spots. Lilly seems to be a lock. That would leave 1 spot, and if Guzman looks healthy both Marquis and Howry could be on the outside looking in. (Here’s hoping!) Note that Guzman doesn’t have to be activated from the DL before September 1st, as he’s currently rehabbing on the 60-day DL and could is thus exempted from the requirement of being on the active roster.

The infielders will likely be the exact same ones used last year: Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot, and Cedeno.

At catcher, it will be Soto and Blanco.

If there are six outfield spots, 4 appear set: Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson, and Edmonds. That would leave two spots for Ward and all the callups (Pie, Hoffpaiur, DuBois, etc.) to fight for. I’d guess Pie has a good shot at the roster, as he’d be the best late-inning pinch runner and OF defensive replacement on the roster. The question is who will be the thumping stick on the bench. The other thing to look for here is the potential for Pie to have a hot September and make a push to start over Fukudome, pushing him to the late inning replacement role. Such a thing would have been unthinkable two years ago, but Lou has shown a willingness to go with a hot September callup in the playoffs (Soto, last year). Again, one can hope…

So, basically, the roster seems set (excluding injuries), and only a few questions remain: Will Lilly start? Can Guzman pitch at a high level and stay healthy? Will the team decide they need another LOOGY (both Marshall and Lilly have reverse splits, leaving Cotts as the only option… and now that i look at it, Cotts also has reverse splits). Who will be our late inning, pray-for-a-HR guy?

Some of the answers will come soon as the “September” callups will only be eligible for the postseason roster if they’re on the active roster or MLB disabled list at midnight, August 31st. This means that for any of those callups to make the postseason, they’ll need to be on the IR or active roster before the rosters expand to 40 players. Because this has to happen before the expansion, that means other people will have to be moved to the DL, reassigned, or released to make room for that player. Expect to see Ward and Howry moved to the DL (maybe Lee, as well) before the end of next weekend to make room for the guys the Cubs want to have as options for the playoffs. This also means that we’ll have a better idea of whether or not any of the callups have a shot at playing in the playoffs next Monday, when the rosters expand. (I think) Guzman doesn’t have to be activated by that point, as he’s currently on the 60-day DL. The others - Pie, Hoffpauir, DuBois, Hart, etc. all will have to be added by that point. So we’ll know whether or not they’re even options by the end of the day next Sunday. The other exception (and how KRod made the Angels playoff roster a few years ago) is you can make a replacement for someone that has to go to the DL for the playoffs, but the replacement has to play the same position. So if Howry is sent to the DL at the end of the season or (more likely) Fox and/or Lieber are moved to the 60-man DL, you can’t replace those guys with Pie… it would have to be Guzman or Hart or some other pitcher.

Anyways, given the roster constraints, the available options, and Lou’s history, this is what i think the playoff roster will look like:

Starters (3): Zambrano, Harden, Dempster
Relievers (8): Wood, Marmol, Samardzija, Cotts, Gaudin, Marshall, Lilly, and Guzman
Infielders (6): Lee, Ramirez, DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot, Cedeno
Outfielders (6): Soriano, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukudome, Pie, and Ward
Catchers (2): Soto, Blanco

Comments

1. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:04 PM

(I think) Guzman doesn’t have to be activated by that point, as he’s currently on the 60-day DL.

Normally that would be true, but Angel Guzman began a rehab assignment recently which means he can only spend so many days on rehab assignment before he either has to be activated or optioned to the minors. Cubs.com wrote today that Guzman has to be activated on September 1st so he’ll be back the day the rosters expand though as you said, he’s still eligible to be on the playoff roster since he was on the DL.

I think Hoffpauir gets called up real soon. Depending on the severity of Lee’s injury, it could be as soon as tomorrow. I’d expect the latest he’d be called up is August 31st. Lou really likes him and I’d be surprised to see Ward over Hoffpauir when the playoffs start. To accommodate Hoffpauir coming up before September 1, either Lee will be put on the DL or Howry will be released. Actually, I think Howry will be released either way. He’s not going to make the playoff roster, he’s not someone you even want to bring into a game when the Cubs have a 6 or 7 run lead anymore as Howry finds a way to make it a 2 or 3-run advantage in a hurry. Not to mention he’s not going to be Type A or Type free agent so he has no value to this team at this point. He could be released at any moment.

I think the same may be true for Ward as well.

I expect the Cubs will call up 2 players prior to September 1st. Hoffpauir I’m almost certain of and one of Hart or Wuertz. Based on how Lou has felt in the past I’d guess it would be Hart. So 2 players may be released and I think that would be Howry (I’d bet money he’s released soon) and Ward.

Ward could be, as you said, placed on the DL so that’s a possibility as well.

2. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:08 PM

I’m not sure anyone else will be considered for the playoff roster other than the ones who are currently on the team along with Hoffpauir and one of Hart or Wuertz. Barring an injury I don’t see how the Cubs can get more than a couple people up here to have them eligible.

I’d also say that if the Cubs go with a 3-man rotation (I think they’ll go with a 4-man rotation for what it’s worth), that Harden is the 3rd starter. I don’t see the Cubs using him as a starter more than once in a 5-game series. That would require short rest and I just don’t think the Cubs will do it. As the 3rd starter he’d be set up to pitch the 7th game of a 7-game series and that’s how it should be in my opinion.

3. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:10 PM

Howry struggling to find consistency (cubs.com)

I beg to differ. He’s consistently sucked. And he’s consistently sucked worse each month. ERA’s of 8.03, 1.76, 4.50, 6.75, and 7.71.

I think he’s been very consistent.

4. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:47 PM

I just took a brief look at the last 10 years (1998-2007). I may take a more in depth look later on, but I wanted to know how many teams 4 or more games back after August 23rd went on to win the division. The 2007 Phillies were 5 back and the Mets just collapsed. The 2006 Twins were 7 back and the Tigers collapsed (they did go on to the World Series though). No other teams have done it in the last 10 years.

It’s obviously possible, and 10 years is close to the whole Wild Card era, but about the only way it happens is if the team in the lead collapses. There just aren’t enough games for another team to play well enough to catch you if you play decent ball.

So talking about a playoff roster for the Cubs isn’t a jinx. We should be doing it. The Cardinals are 8 losses behind the Cubs. Even teams who have collapsed have held onto 8 game leads so there’s no way the Cubs aren’t reaching the playoffs. I’m going to be some kind of pissed off if it’s the Wild Card that we win, but a playoff roster should be discussed by the fans if it interests them and it will definitely be discussed by any contender as Shawn said.

If I looked at this stuff later on, is there anything someone would like to know specifically?

5. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:50 PM

Josh Kroeger turns 26 in about a week. He’s not going to get any better. He’s slugging over .500 this year (only 14 home runs, but lots of doubles). It’s possible the Cubs give him a shot and maybe he’ll platoon in RF with DeRosa in September.

6. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 02:51 PM

If Guzman pitches like he did last year in the pen thats 4 guys in the bullpen who throw really hard and get K’s. As much as we worry about things this team is set up to take care of business in the post season.

Also, it looks like Ramirez is in the beginning phase of one of those tears where he just carries the team.

7. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 03:55 PM

If Guzman is healthy, big if, he’s a very good pitcher. The bullpen should be among the best when the playoffs begin. I’d still like to see Jose Ceda added to this team in the next week so that if he dominates he could be added to the playoff roster. That would be 5 guys who throw mid 90s.

8. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:01 PM

I’m not sure anyone else will be considered for the playoff roster other than the ones who are currently on the team along with Hoffpauir and one of Hart or Wuertz. Barring an injury I don’t see how the Cubs can get more than a couple people up here to have them eligible.

No Pie?

9. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:02 PM

Actually, I think Howry will be released either way. He’s not going to make the playoff roster, he’s not someone you even want to bring into a game when the Cubs have a 6 or 7 run lead anymore as Howry finds a way to make it a 2 or 3-run advantage in a hurry.

I’m guessing he’ll either be placed on the DL or traded for a PTBNL.

10. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:08 PM

I’d also say that if the Cubs go with a 3-man rotation (I think they’ll go with a 4-man rotation for what it’s worth), that Harden is the 3rd starter. I don’t see the Cubs using him as a starter more than once in a 5-game series. That would require short rest and I just don’t think the Cubs will do it. As the 3rd starter he’d be set up to pitch the 7th game of a 7-game series and that’s how it should be in my opinion.

I was using last year’s roster as a model, and didn’t even think about how things would change in a 7-game series. In a 5-game series, i definitely think they go with a 3-man rotation, with Harden lined up to pitch once, and then potentially start game 1 of the NLCS.

But in a 7-game series, i think they have to plan to use Lilly as the 4th starter. That makes him even more of a lock for a roster spot. Howry’s out, and if Guzman is healthy (like you said a HUGE if) i think Marquis is out of a spot as well.

11. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:11 PM

marquis wont have a spot- lou doesnt seem to trust that guy very much and he hasnt earned it

i’m with maddog on Ceda- bring the kid up and lets see what we have there- in just a year Lou has packed our bullpen with the exact kind of guys he wants back there

12. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:18 PM

I’d like to see Ceda as well, but i don’t see the Cubs making him eligible for the postseason roster by a pre-Sept. 1st callup. I see that happening with Pie and Hoffpauir, but nobody else for two reasons.

1.) You can call up Guzman on Sept. 1st, and he’d still be eligible for the postseason (as we’ve discussed). So that’s one guy you can add after the deadline.

2.) You can hold onto Fox and Lieber, and move one of them to the 60-day DL. This would allow a pitcher who emerges in September to be on the postseason roster even if they’re called up after September 1st. So i’m not sure the Cubs need to cut Howry or even call up any pitchers before the roster expansion. If i understand things properly (which i probably don’t) then they can call pitchers up later, and have them replace Fox or Howry when they are moved to the 60-day.

13. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:28 PM

it might be a stretch to expect somebody with Ceda’s control problems to be trusted in the post season anyway. I still want to see the guy in action even if its just for September

14. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:31 PM

So my point is the Cubs shouldn’t have to worry about making room for pitchers. Its the hitters they need to make room for, both of which are already on the 40-man roster.

I think the moves you’ll see this week are Lee or Ward to the DL, with Hoffpauir called up. Then i think they’ll rid of Howry at the end of the week (DL, release, trade, whatever), perhaps even after the game on Sunday, moving Pie up at that point. Then, they bring up the cavalry of arms on the 1st. They’ll be short-handed in the bullpen, but only for a day… maybe even just for a few hours during which there is no game. This would allow them to add Pie, Hoffpauir, Guzman, and up to 2 more arms to the list of playoff eligible players.

15. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 04:32 PM

it might be a stretch to expect somebody with Ceda’s control problems to be trusted in the post season anyway. I still want to see the guy in action even if its just for September

Yup, and we had basically the same feelings about Marmol last year and he turned out OK. Not saying that means Ceda will be good, just that he can be and deserves a shot to be good.

16. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:22 PM

No Pie?

I don’t think so. I really don’t see how they get him up to the big league club by September 1st. Hoffpauir will probably be up before the end of the month somehow and barring an injury. Wait…

I just realized something and maybe this is what you were saying when you mentioned moving Lieber and Fox to the 60-day DL. A team can replace a player on the 60-day DL with any player in their organization and be eligible for the playoff roster. If they move Lieber and Fox to the 60 day DL, then they could add 2 pitchers to the playoff roster even if they’ve never played a major league game and weren’t on the 40-man roster. So assuming they do this (why wouldn’t they), the Cubs don’t need to worry about getting any pitchers up before September 1st. Is this what you were implying, Shawn? If so, I had forgotten about this until just now.

So forget about the Cubs trying to add a pitcher to the staff before September 1st. They would however have to add any position player prior to September 1st for him to be eligible be on the playoff roster.

One way or another I expect Howry will no longer be a Cub in a week. If they do this on, say, August 31st, they could go with a short pitching staff for a day and call up someone like Hoffpauir or Pie (I think those are the only 2 hitters they may try to bring up by the 1st).

17. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:25 PM

marquis wont have a spot- lou doesnt seem to trust that guy very much and he hasnt earned it

I don’t know that he hasn’t earned it. As the roster stands right now, he’d make it over Howry or sure. Marquis isn’t very good, but he’s not as terrible as most Cubs fans make him out to be. He’s an above average number 4 starter, which doesn’t say much other than he’d be a number 4 starter on most teams.

I think it depends on Guzman and it’s probably more likely that is arm falls off than he stays healthy for a month.

18. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:27 PM

2.) You can hold onto Fox and Lieber, and move one of them to the 60-day DL. This would allow a pitcher who emerges in September to be on the postseason roster even if they’re called up after September 1st. So i’m not sure the Cubs need to cut Howry or even call up any pitchers before the roster expansion. If i understand things properly (which i probably don’t) then they can call pitchers up later, and have them replace Fox or Howry when they are moved to the 60-day.

Yeah, you were implying that, but I just missed it in the post because I had forgotten the rules for some reason.

19. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:29 PM

Yup, and we had basically the same feelings about Marmol last year and he turned out OK. Not saying that means Ceda will be good, just that he can be and deserves a shot to be good.

Ceda throws ridiculously hard. And is imposing on that mound. He’s still only 21 so the fact he’s in AA leads me to believe he’s got a pretty bright future ahead of him.

20. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:34 PM

I don’t know if anybody has noticed, but I checked out the Brewers score earlier on ESPN’s Gamecast and they provide run expectation as the game goes on. PRetty cool.

21. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:38 PM

Marquis is one of those guys that you and I have never seen eye to eye about. To me he isnt a 4th starter on any team that can harbor post season aspirations and honestly he shouldnt even be the 5th starter on a “good” team. Marshall should be starting over him right now and it isnt close in my mind. The only thing I think he is above average at is staying healthy. Even then he doesnt “eat innings” because he cant get past the 6th without giving up a ton of runs. Marquis simply doesnt give his team a chance to win on days where he isnt “on” and he isnt on that often. 5th starter maybe, but a good 4?

22. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:47 PM

Most 4th starters suck, dj. THT did a piece about that awhile back and your 4th and 5th starters have an average ERA over 5. Those guys just aren’t good pitchers, but they are what they are.

23. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:49 PM

i do understand that part of your argument but that would lump all teams talent level as equal. Washington’s “1” doesnt equal our “3” this year. On a “good” team I dont think you would find the average “4” having an ERA over 5

24. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:53 PM

but i also have to admit that i have a strong bias agaisnt marquis

25. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 05:59 PM

For what it’s worth, here are the number 4 starters ERA of all teams:

4.33
4.68
5.18
5.64
2.77
4.34
4.76—Jason Marquis
5.35
5.46
5.86
3.17
5.70
5.04
5.51
6.05
4.24
3.90
4.93
4.07
4.97
4.96
4.71
6.57
4.97
6.55
4.53
4.83
3.71
4.82
4.20
4.50

26. Maddog — Aug 23, 2008 @ 06:04 PM

On a “good” team I dont think you would find the average “4” having an ERA over 5

As with everything, good teams are good for a reason and as a group, are better at non-good teams in every possible aspect of the game.

I’d guess the average 4 on a playoff caliber team is around 4.35 or 4.5. The point is that he’s better than a lot of number 4 starters and almost all number 5 starters.

27. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 07:14 PM

Jason Marquis is a 4?
I thought he was a 5.

28. — Aug 23, 2008 @ 09:40 PM

Jason Marquis is a 4?
I thought he was a 5.

He is a 5, but Maddog’s point was that he’s a serviceable 4, which is why he was comparing him to the 4 starters from other teams.

29. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 01:29 AM

Marcel projections improved

Looks like this system will be nearly as complex as PECOTA. Will be interesting to see if it nets similar results. I’d think it would be better since Marcel is almost as good, or as good or better, than PECOTA to begin with.

30. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 01:45 AM

Colin has an excellent piece on the issues that VORP has.

So, we’ve just created a reasonable facsimile of VORP using nothing but the basic bubblegum card stats, stats that no reputable sabermetrician would get caught dead using for serious analytical work.

That system was just runs produced (R+RBI-HR),

31. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 04:40 AM

Who was it that said something about Jeff Sackman’s look at the rest of the season’s schedules for the Cubs and Brewers and how Sackman thought the Brewers could catch the Cubs? Could someone post a link to that? I have something close to ready to post and I was wanting to read through that to see what he had to say and I’m too lazy to go search through the stuff over there. Thanks.

32. pmayo — Aug 24, 2008 @ 05:15 AM

MD, it was just Sackmann linking to this piece by that current contender for the GTOD crown, Dayn Perry.

33. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 05:21 AM

Thanks. I was hoping Sackman said something I could quote, or Perry for that matter, but it doesn’t look like it.

On a different note, did you see Zambrano’s comment about his tooth? He said it was nothing, no pain at all, and yet some radio clown is calling him a pussy? That cracks me up. If one of those morons ran for President I’d vote for him just so I could laugh at everything he says over 4 or hopefully 8 years.

34. pmayo — Aug 24, 2008 @ 05:28 AM

On a different note, did you see Zambrano’s comment about his tooth? He said it was nothing, no pain at all, and yet some radio clown is calling him a pussy?

Those guys never cease to amaze me. Maybe Zambrano’s right, and there was no pain, but even so, some radio loudmouth who has no idea what kind of perpetual and intense pain athletes play through every day should probably just STFU.

35. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 05:38 AM

Agreed. I have no doubt the pain these guys can handle far exceeds anything myself could handle or anything those jokers on the radio could. No doubt.

36. pmayo — Aug 24, 2008 @ 05:39 AM

Yeah. The pain threshold for a professional athlete is incomprehensible.

Hey, MD, I’ve got a new song for the next Theriot Files: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gxSxoEA2TA

37. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 06:09 AM

new thread up

38. Maddog — Aug 24, 2008 @ 06:10 AM

I downloaded that song and then uploaded it to the server for this site, pmayo. Remind me if I forget to post something in the next few days if you think about it.

Page 1 of 1 pages

Next entry: The last 5 weeks for the Cubs and Brewers

Previous entry: Nationals at Cubs open game thread

HOME