With the start of the NFL (and fantasy football) season just eleven days away, there are still many depth chart questions that need to be answered around the league. Just about every NFL team has at least one position in which multiple players are fighting for that starting gig. For example, we know Ricky Williams is now the primary option at running back for the Miami Dolphins, but do we know how big his workload will be in South Beach? Not really, and this is where the Bruno Boys Fantasy Football staff comes into play. With you the fantasy football owner in mind, four members of the Bruno Boys staff have addressed some of your biggest concerns heading into the 2008 season.
Now it's time to read the weekly Bruno Boys Fantasy Football roundtable article, in which the Bruno Boys give in depth analysis to "Seven Burning Fantasy Football Questions."
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1. What is the division of labor in the Miami Dolphins' backfield?
Bruno Boys Whooley: As crazy as it sounds, I'm going to say its a 60/40 split in favor of Ricky Williams. Yes, I know that Ronnie Brown (991 total yards, 5 total TDs in 7 games) was about as dominant as they come prior to getting hurt in 2007, while Williams put down the bong just in time to get into one game in which he only rushed for 15 yards on 6 carries. However, Williams has appeared motivated this pre-season. Combine that with the talent he does possess (he did have 4 straight 1000+ yard seasons from 2000 to 2003) and Williams should play well enough to earn the majority of touches, especially with Brown coming off an ACL injury that normally takes backs two years to completely bounce back from.
Bruno Boys Ziza: Starting the season, Ricky Williams should be getting the better part of the carries, although if healthy enough to play, Ronnie Brown will get some too. As the season progresses though and Brown gets healthier, we should see more of a 50/50 split. I would be pretty amazed though if Brown were to get to the point this season in which he were given almost the full-load to bare. With the Miami Dolphins wanting to get Brown back to where he could be, they will let him get more reps at his own pace.
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Who would have thought a year ago we would be talking about Ricky Williams once again being a starting running back in the NFL? I know I didn't, but it's time to give credit where credit is due. Williams has looked good during the preseason, has shown signs of the past and the Miami Dolphins brass is committed to him to start the season as the regular running back. Out of the gates, I see Williams getting between 60-65 percent of the carries, while the Dolphins ease Ronnie Brown into the mix. However, as Williams begins to breakdown (can he really play a full season?), we will begin to see more of Brown. In a perfect world, the Dolphins would like to see Williams and Brown split carries throughout the season, in attempt to keep both options fresh. Not a bad game plan for a team that is limited offensively.
Bruno Boys Jesse: With Ronnie Brown on the mend and Ricky Williams on the patch – or like-smoking prevention tool for those smitten with the world’s most natural hallucinogen – the Miami Dolphins will begin the season with an unrivaled blend of talent and risk in their backfield. Brown is carrying the ball with timidity in practice, which makes Williams the early favorite for the bulk of the touches in Week 1. I expect Tony Sparano to give Williams 70-75 percent of the carries through the first five or six weeks of the season until Brown nears 100 percent (thumb, ACL) and becomes mentally ready to run. If and when that happens, Brown will cut into Williams' fun and form a truer timeshare.
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2. Does Alex Smith reclaim the starting quarterback job in San Francisco, or does J.T. O'Sullivan emerge as this year's signal-calling surprise?
Bruno Boys Ziza: Actually, on Friday, head coach Mike Nolan announced that J.T. O’Sullivan has won the starting gig and will be under center come Week 1. Unless O’Sullivan flops, I don’t see Mike Martz recommending going in another direction. When he gets it in his head that he doesn’t like someone, such as Alex Smith, he forgets about him. Just ask Tatum Bell!
Bruno Boys Jesse: Straight from the school of Mike Martz, J.T. O’Sullivan was installed as the starter ahead of 2005 No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith and will attempt to become the latest of Martz’s zero-to-hero success stories (see Kurt Warner, Mike Furrey). O’Sullivan followed Martz to the City by the Bay from Detroit, so he came into training camp with knowledge of the offense and the quick release that best suits it. The pieces around him are questionable, but I think he does enough to hold onto the job provided Martz structures the offense to feature the two best players (Frank Gore, Vernon Davis) at the positions he has historically ignored (running back, tight end).
Bruno Boys Cavigs: You know what, I am a bit disturbed by this ongoing quarterback controversy in San Francisco. I know that head coach Mike Nolan came out and announced long shot J.T. O'Sullivan as the starter, but I don't like this decision at all. Isn't there a reason, O'Sullivan has played on eight NFL teams in 7 seasons? He might be the trendy pick right now, after a strong preseason, but it's only a matter of time before he begins to flop and the 49ers turn the page and look for Alex Smith to save the day. However, Smith has done nothing to earn his keeps, so I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers play musical chairs at quarterback in 2008. By the way, did I mention that I hate Nolan and predict he gets fired by week 6?
Bruno Boys Whooley: With his strong performance on Thursday night against the Bears in which he went 7 for 8 for 128 yards and a score, netting a perfect QB rating of 158.3, J.T. O'Sullivan will be the one lining up under center for the 49ers come week 1. Now, does that mean he finishes the season there? I don't think so. Either due to injury or poor play, O'Sullivan will eventually relinquish the role to Alex Smith. And, perhaps the Niners did Smith a favor here. Coming into the season as the back-up, Smith rather than looking over his shoulder, worried about losing his job, will get a chance to be the hero off the bench. That could be just what he needs to finally succeed in the NFL.
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3. Which Oakland Raiders' receiver is most worth owning?
Bruno Boys Jesse: This is a trick question in a sense, because a defensible argument can be made that the roster spot required to carry a Raiders’ receiver is worth more than the receiver himself. In that event, the answer is none. But if I had to commit, I’d throw my support to Ronald Curry, the best route-runner on the depth chart and a player with proven worth in PPR formats.
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Before I give my two cents on this topic, let me remind you that I won't be drafting a Oakland Raiders wide receiver in 2008. The offense is inexperienced, JaMarcus Russell will suffer growing pains throughout the season, and the Raiders will be a run orientated football team. Now, if I was forced to snag someone, it would be Ronald Curry. He has 117 receptions over the past two seasons, is the only sane wide out in Oakland and despite a few duds has been fairly consistent in a bad Raiders offense. With that being said, both Curry and Javon Walker should be targeted no earlier than a 4th wide receiver in a deep league, and a 5th wide receiver in a 10-team league.
Bruno Boys Whooley: If we're strictly talking wide receivers, I'm going with Ronald Curry. Granted, there are 55 million reasons that have the Raiders hoping it's Javon Walker, but I think they're going to be severely disappointed with Walker throughout the season, just as they have been this pre-season. Meanwhile, Curry has led this team in receiving the past two years, beating out the likes of Randy Moss and Jerry Porter, so why wouldn't he be the front-runner to lead them in receiving again, though that doesn't mean I want him as anything more than a high-end WR4. One last thing, don't be surprised if tight end, Zach Miller, outperforms all of the Raiders' wide outs.
Bruno Boys Ziza: Between Javon Walker’s bum knee and the inconsistencies of Ronald Curry and Drew Carter, there isn’t a receiver that I would want to own in that group as one of my four wide outs. But, if we have to choose one, I would go with Javon Walker as he is head coach Lane Kiffin’s main man. He has been impressed with Walker’s workouts as of late. With how mentally unstable Walker is right now, that just shows me how sorry their group of receivers really is.
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4. Does Calvin Johnson supplant Roy Williams as Detroit's No. 1 wideout this season?
Bruno Boys Cavigs: I'm taking the old school school approach on this one (though only 25!), as I have a hard time just handing over the torch to Calvin Johnson. Looking at this from a what have you done for me lately standpoint, Johsnon needs to put together a a solid season before he passes up the more proven Roy Williams as the top wide receiver in Detroit. I think the battle for supreme is healthy one for both Williams and Johnson, but if I have to choose between both on draft day, I'll take Williams and his 28 career touchdowns over Johnson's amazing upside and potential. However, both of these receivers are solid second options in 10 and 12 team leagues,
Bruno Boys Jesse: My recent experience has been that the mere mention of Calvin Johnson’s name in any typical conversation about fantasy football induces crazed drooling to those within hearing distance. Johnson is a prodigious talent, but it’s customary for wide receivers to not hit their stride until their third pro season. Roy Williams is also a considerable talent with the trust of his quarterback, and he’s still the No. 1 guy until Jon Kitna decides he’s not.
Bruno Boys Whooley: I know in fantasy circles the 3-year theory is widely accepted for wide receivers, with 3 years being the time it usually takes for a receiver in the NFL to truly establish themselves; however, I think Calvin Johnson will be ahead of the curve, breaking out in only his second year in the league. Everything you read about the guy this pre-season is a positive, having many claiming a pro-bowl season is in the works. Johnson will benefit greatly from the fact that Roy Williams is the more established receiver as defenses will shade their coverage his way, leading to multiple single coverage opportunities for Johnson, which is why I give him the nod this season.
Bruno Boys Ziza: Not only do I think that he will supplant Roy Williams as the #1 Detroit wide receiver, in a recent local-Detroit article Williams’ himself has conceded that Calvin Johnson has passed him! As good as Williams’ is, Johnson is just far superior in every aspect of the receiving game! I'm starting to believe that Johnson, not Williams, should be the first Lions WR off the fantasy football draft boards!
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5. More touchdowns: Willie Parker or Rashard Mendenhall?
Bruno Boys Whooley: Boy, this is a tough one. Being drafted in the first round, Rashard Mendenhall is going to see the field, and originally, the plan was to have him take the goal-line carries, much like Najeh Davenport had done last season to the tune of 7 TDs. But, Mendenhall has not succeeded in securing the goal-line job, meaning Parker is back in the goal-line discussions. On top of that, you have Fast Willie Parker, who scored just 2 TDs in 2007, but 16 in 2008. My guess is Parker is between those two totals in 2008. Yup, I make the hard calls. Pencil Parker in for 8 scores, just edging out Mendenhall's 7.
Bruno Boys Ziza: I am going to go with Rashard Mendenhall. Both backs are receiving high-praise from their coaches, but Willie Parker will be getting the bulk of the carries between the 10’s. And knowing how the Pittsburgh Steelers love to use a RBBC, I can see Mendenhall spelling Parker in goal-line situations. I am not saying that Mendenhall will get them all as Parker wants some goal-line carries as well, but when it is all said and done I believe Mendenhall, not Parker, will be victorious. Quick stat: Dismissing Parkers solid 2006 season, he has only 7 combined TD’s between 2004, 2005 and 2007. That is 39 games, 30 of which were starts.
Bruno Boys Jesse: Push. Parker will still be featured in first and second down packages in the red zone, and thus will have more opportunities to score, but Mendenhall sounds (and looks) like the more effective short-yardage runner. I can see both backs finishing the season with six scores a piece. One thing is for certain: Willie Parker is not rushing for another 1300-plus yards and scoring just twice as he did in 2007.
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Whether you want to believe it or not, there is a reason the Pittsburgh Steelers brought in Rashard Mendenhall, and it's not just to be the change of pace back that spells Willie Parker. I don't know what Whooley is saying that Mendenhall hasn't secured the goal-line job, in my opinion that's just a matter of head coach Mike Tomlin trying to make him work harder in the preseason. He scored on a 6-yard scamper last week, and will continue to get the touches around the goal-line throughout the preseason. In my opinion, Parker will be the guy who gets the yardage totals, while Mendenhall scores the touchdowns. I'm saying Mendenhall scores 8 TD's, while Parker finds pay dirt 6 times.
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6. How long before John Fox hands the reins to Jonathan Stewart and relegates DeAngelo Williams to third-down duty?
Bruno Boys Whooley: Why is this a foregone conclusion? Yes, Jonathan Stewart is a rookie with a lot of upside, but DeAngelo Williams isn't an aging veteran at the age of 25. Stewart's not just going to be handed the job, especially when you consider Williams has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 5.0 yards per carry in his first two seasons in the league. Stewart has to prove himself before we start handing him starting gigs, and with his sore toe, that's going to take longer than originally expected.
Bruno Boys Jesse: The drafting of Jonathan Stewart should be a hint that the Panthers want to return to the two-pronged rushing attack that propelled them to the Superbowl in 2004 (Stephen Davis + DeShaun Foster). Stewart has the better every-down kind of build than DeAngelo Williams, and so he will shoulder the brunt of the workload once he has a firm grasp of the playbook, which may be as soon as the midpoint of the season, or as late as the beginning of 2009. At the least, head coach John Fox will likely prefer Stewart to Williams in goal-line situations, making the rookie an attractive flex play in an improved offense from a year ago.
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Right when the Carolina Panthers snagged Jonathan Stewart out of the University of Oregon, I was quick to proclaim him the starter. However, a toe injury combined with the adjustment to the NFL game has me backing off the Stewart bandwagon. Also, I have to give credit to DeAngelo Williams. He has rushed 17 times for 87 yards and 2 TD's this preseason and has showed signs of life as the primary ball carrier in Carolina. As for Stewart, he was stuffed against the Philadelphia Eagles in his debut, rushing 4 times for 3 yards, but bounded back and went over 100 yards and found pay dirt against the Washington Redskins. It looks like Williams will be getting the bulk of the carries early on, but the more comfortable Stewart becomes with the offense, the more he will get his touches. Plus, he is the bigger more physical back, so like Bruno Boys Jesse said, he should be getting some goal-line opportunities.
Bruno Boys Ziza: I am not sold on the fact that DeAngelo Williams will be a third-down back sometime this year. In fact, I would say that since Jonathan Stewart will be playing with a bum toe this season, it will be hard for him to find much of a rhythm. In fact, Stewart has said as much, that he is still waiting for the NFL game to “click” with him. With the differences in their games, I think the two would compliment each other well, with Williams playing a lot in passing situations. So, if Williams is ever relegated to third-down duty, barring injury, it won't be until at least 2009.
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7. Who is the better tight end in Tampa Bay: Alex Smith or Ben Troupe?
Bruno Boys Ziza: Both have had similar careers as neither has stepped up and become the man on their respective teams prior to the 2008 season. It would not shock me if both received similar playing time, with head coach Jon Gruden going with more two tight end formation to try and make the best that both of these players have to offer. I would personally go with Alex Smith, but I don’t think either of these players will play themselves into even mid-TE2 range by the end of the season.
Bruno Boys Cavigs: Keeping this short, sweet and to the point, the answer is Alex Smith. When predicting tight ends that are strictly bye week replacements, you have to look for the guy who is a better red zone threat. In this case, Smith has 5 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons, while Troupe has only scored twice (0 in 2007). On top of that, Smith has 67 receptions during that span, while Troupe has managed just 18 receptions. Smith it is, but honestly unless you are in a 20-team league, stay clear of these guys.
Bruno Boys Jesse: I’ve always been a Ben Troupe apologist. To compare him with a former SEC tight end, Troupe is every bit the athletically gifted and inadequate blocker Ben Watson is. We know Jon Gruden likes to bring in competition to push along underachievers (like Alex Smith), but the supreme irony here is that he brought in the greatest of underachievers to accomplish that goal. I’d like to think a change of scenery will kickstart Troupe’s career, but I’ll err on the side of caution and predict Alex Smith remains the starter for the entire season despite his inferior talent.
Bruno Boys Whooley: Who cares! Ok, ok, I apologize. We are here to answer every owner's questions, and I am sure there is a Bucs fan in a deep fantasy league that is dying over this decision, so here it goes. Troupe is the more talented of the two tight ends; however, we've seen countless examples in the NFL were talent doesn't translate to production, and that's the case with Troupe, who once showed potential with a 530 yard 4 TD effort in 2005, but has done little since. That means by default, I'm going with Alex Smith. At least with Smith, you know you'll be in the 300 yard and 3 TD range.
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Position by Position BUST Rankings (click to view)
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Quarterbacks
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Running Backs
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Wide Receivers
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Tight Ends
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Kickers
Bring out the Pepto (Bust) Rankings - Team Defenses
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Position by Position Sleeper Rankings (click to view)
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Quarterbacks
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Running Backs
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Wide Receivers
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Tight Ends
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Kickers
Snooze Alarm (Sleeper) Rankings - Team Defenses
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