I wanted to get this published before the game thread today since the numbers will change after today’s games. The table is too large to post here so click on the link below.
The last 2 column headers in the table log5-wpct and log5-pythag-wpct is the only thing I assume you need an explanation for. If not, you probably couldn’t find your way here anyway. Bill James created a system to determine the percentage chance a team has of beating another team based on winning percentage that he called the Log 5 method. The first header and the 3 columns below it are all based on actual winning percentages as of this morning. The next column header and the 3 columns included are based on Pythagorean win percentage, which is calculated using runs scored and runs allowed as I’m sure you all know. It’s usually a better indicator of a team’s true talent than actual winning percentage.
The columns with DIFF are the differences between the Cubs chances of winning and the Brewers chances of winning. A positive number means the Cubs have a better chance of winning that day’s game than do the Brewers.
Using the actual winning percentage, if you’ve counted yet, we see of the 36 remaining days (one of those days is an off day for each team), that the Cubs have a better chance of winning than do the Brewers in 19 of those days while the Brewers have a greater chance in 16 days. Using the Pythagorean winning percentages we see that the Cubs have a better chance in 22 days and the Brewers in 13 days.
This doesn’t include home/road match-ups or who is pitching, but it’s a rough estimate and it tells us something, though it’s nothing we didn’t already have an idea of in our own heads. If anything, this shows that although the Brewers undoubtedly have the weaker schedule, the Cubs are still expected to win more games than the Brewers are. The Brewers have a strength of schedule advantage, but it’s eliminated by the fact the Cubs are such a superior team to the Brewers.
The game thread will post at about 12 pm.
1. pmayo — Aug 24, 2008 @ 06:18 AM
I don’t know that I’d say the Cubs being a superior team “eliminates” the advantage the weaker schedule gives the Brewers, as any team, regardless of talent level, can have a letdown; rather, I’d say it diminishes the impact of the the Brewers’ soft schedule on he division race.
Now, I realize that this is not a claim you’ve made, but I think it’s foolhardy not to take that softer schedule into account, especially when you consider that 16 of the Cubs final 25 games are on the road, including 6 in StL and Milwaukee.