No, you didn’t read the title wrong, nor am I going crazy. In fact, the reality of the title just struck me the other day as I was perusing a statistics page. See, here's the thing, lost in all the criticism Matt Kemp gets for his demeanor, or his attitude, or for striking out, or for losing fly balls in the sun (cause nobody ever does that, only young players), is the fact that he is one of the premier center fielders in major league baseball.
Personally, I think a lot of fans don’t exactly realize how few offensive center fielders there actually are. Generally speaking, people associate all outfielders with power and production because they see guys like Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez tearing it up. However, the reality is that outfielders who can actually justify their spot in center field, and also produce offensively, are very view and far between.
Still, superficially speaking, Kemp doesn’t seem anywhere near elite.
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS
Average Major League Center Fielder-.267/.333/.419/.752
Matt Kemp-.298/.347/.479/.826
Well above average, but surely not elite, right? Let’s take a closer look…
Among All Qualified Center Fielders-VORP/OPS
Grady Sizemore-57.2/.904
Josh Hamilton-47.4/.909
Curtis Granderson-38.3/.877
Nate McLouth-37.1/.863
Carlos Beltran-35.7/.834
Ichiro Suzuki-32.2/.753
Matt Kemp-29.9/.826
Rick Ankiel-27.1/.867
Shane Victorino-26.8/.805
Torii Hunter-26.1/.805
Those are the top 10 center fielders in the majors listed by VORP. I also included their OPS for further superficial comparison.
Now, if you just take a look at the pure offensive production (VORP), I think many casual fans would already be very surprised by where Kemp stands. In fact, I even think many of the more educated fans would be shocked to see his name sandwiched between guys like Beltran, Suzuki, Ankiel, and Hunter.
So even though he seems to be showing signs of becoming a marquee center fielder, he doesn’t yet seem to be quite in that upper tier. However, a closer look would disagree with that notion.
Rate/RAA/Plus Minus
Grady Sizemore-94/-7/+7
Josh Hamilton-82/-14/-6
Curtis Granderson-104/4/-4
Nate McLouth-85/-17/-18
Carlos Beltran-103/3/+14
Ichiro Suzuki-106/4/-5
Matt Kemp-106/4/+2
Rick Ankiel-91/-8/-7
Shane Victorino-101/1/+2
Torii Hunter-111/12/0
All of these numbers listed are metrics used to measure defensive value. However, as I have said before, fielding metrics can be highly volatile, so people usually need to take them with a grain of salt. Still, when all available fielding metrics point in one direction, the evidence is so overwhelming that there's only one logical conclusion.
So, if we analyze the list, we can quickly point out McLouth, Hamilton, and Ankiel as players who are not true center fielders at all. McLouth, in particular, is so bad defensively that he probably torpedoes a lot of his offensive worth.
Next, there are the players with confounding evidence, namely Sizemore, Granderson, and Suzuki. Looking back at previous seasons, Granderson and Suzuki both have track records of good defense in center field, so i’ll give them both passes. However, Sizemore’s Rate and RAA have always been low, so that’s probably accurate. Furthermore, his Plus Minus rating the past two years have been –2 and –1 so that’s not very promising for his defense either.
Now, by eliminating the impostor center fielders and concentrating on those who can actually field the position, we’re left with a list that consists of Kemp, Hunter, Beltran, Victorino, Granderson, and Suzuki. Of those remaining, Kemp ranks above Hunter, Victorino, and (arguably) Suzuki, leaving him as a top 3 offensive center fielder. Defensively speaking, he’s arguably better than all of them except Hunter, making him top 2 on this list. Therefore, any rational person, regardless of his minor quibbles with certain statistical errors or sample size, would have to admit that Kemp is, at the very least, a top 5 center fielder in the majors right now. He's a player who not only contributes significantly offensively, but also does not destroy his team’s defense by providing overwhelmingly inferior defensive value.
In short, Matt Kemp is a top offensive center fielder, an above average defensive center fielder, is paid close to the minimum, is cost controlled for years to come, and is showing signs of improvement as the season trolls along. Oh, and did I mention that he’s still only 23? Yeah, he’s sorta decent for his age too.
So all his naysayers can take their small scope SportsCenter highlight misplays, their “he strikes out too much” criticisms, and their cries of “overrated prospect”, and shove them directly up their ass. If anything, Kemp’s now underrated and underappreciated, and he’s more than proven why every major league team would kill to trade for him.
One more thing, if you hadn’t noticed, Kemp is the same player that Ned Colletti has tried to deal in almost every major trade for about the past 2 years now. And yet, people still wonder why I run a site called Fire Ned Colletti Now. Ha.
5 Comments:
But Matt Kemp is stupid and doesn't know how to run the bases and doesn't have Veteran Goodness and we should get rid of him, dagnabbit!
Great post. Only thing I'll add is that Colletti didn't actually trade Kemp, and all the talk of trading hasn't had a negative effect on the player.
GMs sometimes like to dangle top prospects at the start of trade talks, or even to get the talks going in the first place. No way for me to know if that's the case here, but you'd really have to be a complete moron to trade Kemp for anyone who would be a free agent at the end of the year, even just in terms of economics. So unless we got someone like Miguel Cabrera, I really wouldn't see McCourt/Ned/Whoeever trade Kemp.
I can't even believe that you are praising the virtues of Matt Kemp in CF over the pro's pro Juan Pierre. Juan Pierre is able to keep runners on first base from scoring on singles to center EVERY SINGLE TIME. He ALWAYS holds them at third base. He is consistently able to hit the cutoff man with two-bounce throws, thereby only letting the runner on first advance to third on singles. If he had a weak arm, and that throw to the cutoff man were to bounce a third time, then yes, that runner on first will score on a single. But Juan never lets that happen.
And let's not forget Juan's stellar hitting. Juan hit a home run as recently AS TWO YEARS AGO. When he goes deep, it has a chilling effect on the rest of the league. They know that Juan and the Dodgers MEAN BUSINESS. If he got regular playing time batting leadoff, he could get close to 200 hits every year. Remember that a single is just as good as a walk, especially when you hit that single on a 3-1 count.
Let's not forget Juan's veteran hustle on those infield ground outs, either. He sets a shining example to our young players like Kemp and Ethier, who would learn much better from the bench. I only wish we had more Juan Pierres.
Nice read. I am a Kemp fan, but that was still very surprising to learn what kind of company he is keeping. Good job overall with the blog. It is fantastic and provides a lot of valuable information about some of the prospects and down right hilarious moments like the article about veteran pitchers. Keep up the good work!
MSTI-Sad part is, I hear things similar to that pretty often.
Alex-No, he didn't actually trade Kemp, but you know he would have if it wasn't for Logan White. It's not like he has problems with dumping prospects. Almost every trade involving prospects seems to need White's clearance first. :o
TDA-You should write satire for me. :o
Jordan-Thanks a lot, I appreciate it. :o
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